Kevin Vecmanis

Engineering @HodlWithLedn. Opinions are my own. #Bitcoin

[Rob Hamilton 🟥 @Rob1Ham]

Yesterday I began fully integrating the @OpenAI trust cyber program into my Bitcoin Red Team efforts.

This morning I woke up to see this.

I am now being blocked from doing additional analysis on a codebase which I've already responsibly disclosed to, and have received confirmation had legitimate findings.

To be clear, this is after having already KYC'd and completed the onboarding process months ago to use the cyber capabilities OpenAI has to offer.

I am now prevented from being able to continue the investigation in a further effort to make sure their code changes are sufficient, as well as understand if there are other issues that have yet to be discovered.

It absolutely guts me as a patriotic American to have to do this, but I will be going back to using Chinese open source models to conduct my research to protect Bitcoin infrastructure.

Black hats will not hit these issues. The white hats will. We've hit a local minima in policy. Intelligence is unrestricted for those who don't follow rules, and those who engadge in harm reduction are left on the sidelines.

What are we doing in this country? How is this keeping people safe?

Please do something @DavidSacks @sama @realDonaldTrump

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡The largest generation in history needs to sell the most expensive houses in history to the most indebted generation in history.

That sentence is correct.

The crash everyone builds on top of it is not.

Housing crashes require one ingredient: sellers who must transact.

2008 happened because adjustable resets and job losses forced millions of simultaneous liquidations into a leveraged market.

The boomer seller is the opposite animal. Mortgage-free or locked at 3%. Capital-gains exempt. And the alternative to selling is staying in the house, which is free. Even death forces nothing: the estate transfers at a stepped-up basis to heirs who face the same choice with better tax treatment.

Demographic supply arrives as a drizzle across twenty years, estate by estate. Never as the flood a 65% clearing requires.

Without forced sales, housing markets do not clear down. They freeze.

Japan already ran this experiment. The demographic decline produced two decades of grinding regional declines, sticky prices in Tokyo, collapsing volume, and vacancy in the periphery. The actual crash Japan had came from its credit bubble, not its aging. Aging produces the freeze.

The real distinction is nominal versus real, and this is where the bears are half right. A 65% real decline over a decade is entirely plausible: housing flat-to-down nominally while fiscal expansion inflates everything else.

But that world hands nobody a $1.3M house for $450k, because the same debasement that deflates the house deflates the savings. “Get a job and save money” is precisely backwards for the scenario it’s meant to serve: dollar savings are what that regime taxes. The trade for a world where housing falls 65% real is hard assets against the currency, then convert into the frozen real estate late. Housing priced in gold collapses in that world. Housing priced in dollars mostly just disappoints.

Geography splits the outcome. The demographic dump concentrates where boomers over-hold and the young don’t move: exurbs, retirement belts, small metros. Genuine 50% nominal wrecks are coming there. The supply-constrained cores where the jobs sit will absorb the drizzle without breaking. “Real estate” as one national asset class is the wrong unit for the 2030s. The correct unit is the local labor market.

The swing variable nobody prices: immigration. Household formation is the only demand line that can move fast enough to matter, and it is now a policy dial. Restrict hard and the periphery crash accelerates. Reverse the dial in the 2030s and the bid returns.

And the deepest layer.

The crash thesis assumes the seller’s counterparty is a wage-earning household. Increasingly it is not. That $19 trillion in boomer housing is the collateral under the retirement system and the regional banks, and no government tolerates that transfer failing. The modal resolution is the one already patterned everywhere else: institutional buyers as designated absorbers, tax-advantaged conversion vehicles, liquidity programs, the freeze managed rather than the crash permitted.

Congress just showed you the blueprint. The new housing law bans large institutions from buying single-family homes, except: existing holdings grandfathered, build-to-rent exempt, and foreclosure purchases exempt. Institutions may not outbid your family at an open house. They may absorb every home that enters distress. The ban binds in the bull market and dissolves in the crash. The state told institutions: you may not buy the top, you may absorb the bottom.

Housing’s left tail gets socialized like everything else’s.

The cost lands where it always lands now: on the currency.

The house doesn’t crash. The money does.

[Dr Jordan B Peterson @jordanbpeterson]

To the Americans:

I've travelled all over the world. I've familiarized myself with many places, and met many people. And I'm a Canadian, although I’m privileged to reside once again in the States.

And here's something I've noticed, and it’s a key element of America's continuing greatness:

You bloody Americans value success, and you believe in its existence.

This is something that doesn't really happen anywhere else in the world. Even in other free democracies—the United Kingdom; Finland, Sweden, and Norway; Australia, New Zealand and Canada; Germany, France, and the Netherlands (great countries all)—a counterproductive cynicism too often reigns.

Success is equated with exploitation.
Ambition is looked upon with contempt.

This happens sometimes in the United States too—particularly among the miserable progressives, who confuse their resentment, ingratitude and unearned skepticism with wisdom.

But in your great country, by and large, striving is admired and success celebrated.

This means that more people strive and succeed in the US than anywhere else. And it's increasingly obvious. You remain stunningly more innovative and productive than any people anywhere else on the planet.

And so I say, as all should who are fortunate enough to live in the western world, let alone America:

Thank God for the United States.

Thank God for the wisdom of its founders.
Thank God for its faith in the free market and in the natural rights of man.
Happy birthday, you damn Yankees and Southerners.

Long may your admirable country dominate the world.

Long may your freedom and hope provide an example to those suffering everywhere at the hands of their malevolent states.

May your two and a half centuries of unparallelled success be just the beginning.

Your country is the light of the world, and the city on the hill.

Thank God for the USA.

Happy 250th.

Dr. Jordan B. Peterson

[Ledn @hodlwithLedn]

Last week: 1,000+ loans used Auto Top-Up.
Of the ones with BTC sitting in their transaction account, zero were liquidated.
That's $65M — over 1,000 BTC — still in clients' hands instead of lost to a price move while they slept.

[Ron Sovereignty Swanson⚡️🗝️ @RonSwanonson]

The one thing that can kill Bitcoin is;

Responsible government spending, a rapid reversal of the debt, a repricing of assets back towards their utility value, politicians reverting back to being public servants, true property rights over our own money, the right to transact without a 3rd party, near zero costs for global transfers, and wages easily outpacing inflation across

That is literally all that has to happen for Bitcoin to die

[Kevin Vecmanis @kevinvecmanis]

Bitcoin doesn’t have a security wall. It has a compute wall masquerading as an energy wall masquerading as an incentive wall. The only thing Mythos can figure out how to do is form the longest chain.

[JaguarAnalytics @JaguarAnalytics]

NSA Director General Joshua Rudd: “Mythos broke into almost all of our classified systems, not in weeks, but in hours.”

I’m wondering if Mythos can do this to NSA, how long before AI breaks Bitcoin bitcoin:native security wall?

https://t.co/64FfRfrjGr

[JaguarAnalytics @JaguarAnalytics]

NSA Director General Joshua Rudd: “Mythos broke into almost all of our classified systems, not in weeks, but in hours.”

I’m wondering if Mythos can do this to NSA, how long before AI breaks Bitcoin bitcoin:native security wall?

https://t.co/64FfRfrjGr

[Dan Tapiero @DTAPCAP]

Insane.

So a 4 star admiral testifying to Congress now sounds like @adam3us.

Boys and girls-btc is becoming embedded within US power infrastructure.

Game over.

Valued only at $1.5T.

65% less than @Apple.

I'm not leaving. I'm not pivoting away from this space. It's early.

[Pledditor @Pledditor]

The largest Ethereum layer 2, which has also been regularly praised by Vitalik as being the most decentralized L2, just froze $100m worth of ETH that was hacked by criminals.

Are you finally starting to realize the bitcoin maxis were right?

[Kevin Vecmanis @kevinvecmanis]

Nothing stops the train

[🪶Native Patriot 🇺🇸 @LaNativePatriot]

“The Republicans will fix it this time”

“The Democrats will fix it this time”

[Dustin @r0ck3t23]

Elon Musk just confirmed when humans exit the AI development loop entirely.

Not eventually. Not theoretically.

He gave a date.

Musk: “Humans are gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self-improvement. Every successive model is built by the one before it.”

The market still assumes thousands of engineers are hand-coding the next frontier model.

The compute already took over the build.

Musk: “That is happening to a large degree, but it’s not yet fully automated. It may be there, if not this year, but not later than next year.”

Once biological friction is fully automated out of the loop, the AI arms race detaches from human comprehension.

Permanently.

Global markets are still planning for a gradual transition.

That timeline is already dead.

Interviewer: “Do you see a hard takeoff at that point?”

Musk: “We’re in the hard takeoff. Right now.”

Musk: “I go to sleep, there’s some massive AI breakthrough. And when I wake up there’s another one.”

You don’t outrun autonomous, self-improving intelligence by hiring more biological engineers.

By the time the hiring sprint finishes, the model has already iterated into something the job description can’t describe.

The architects of intelligence are no longer biological.

And the thing building itself didn’t ask for the job.

[Kevin Vecmanis @kevinvecmanis]

🔥🔥

[COLDCARD @COLDCARDwallet]

The COLDCARD Mk5 is here. 🔥🔥🔥

Big Screen, Fantastic Keypad, Fast NFC, Backwards Compatible for seamless upgrade.

Quantum Bitcoin Awesomeness

[James Lavish @jameslavish]

Good morning.

The 20 millionth Bitcoin was mined yesterday. This means that 95% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist is now in circulation, and it will take 114 years to mine the remaining 5%. No other asset on earth works like this.

Have a great day.

[Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 @Leishman]

Huge shoutout to @Square for their contribution to Bitcoin merchant adoption. They single-handedly changed the slope of the graph.

[Kevin Vecmanis @kevinvecmanis]

The “iPhone moment” with private and personal AI is close. You can feel it.

[Kevin Vecmanis @kevinvecmanis]

Most haven’t grasped the implications
of Bitcoin yet because most haven’t grasped the implications of AI yet.

[Jack Mallers @jackmallers]

Money is information. Information is power.

Money represents your time and effort. When governments debase money, they debase you.

Printing, censoring, and confiscating money are affronts to human dignity. Bitcoin fixes this.

My latest keynote: Fix the money, fix the world.

[Kevin Vecmanis @kevinvecmanis]

“Out of nowhere”

[The Globe and Mail @globeandmail]

Out of nowhere, Canada became poorer than Alabama. How is that possible? https://t.co/2qUA7SyB3t

[Ledn @hodlwithLedn]

Ledn has issued the first investment grade-rated bitcoin-backed ABS in the digital asset industry.

The senior notes under the offering were rated BBB- by S&P. Plus, the ABS has been 2x oversubscribed, with institutional demand exceeding the $188 million offering size.

This is the first time a major global rating agency has provided independent, institutional validation of a digital asset lending portfolio.

Learn more: https://t.co/NqXq9UVeZH

[Kevin Vecmanis @kevinvecmanis]

How can you expect AI to be deflationary when the central banks tell
you they’ll do anything to maintain their inflation targets. None of the productivity gains of AI will accrue to savers or wage earners - only to asset holders and debtors.