kingbobmb

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@CredibleCrypto Hold on. Still trying to sell my boat for some more buying power

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@TheProjectUnity The reposts are out of control. Make it stop.

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

Theory and thought. First accumulation zone about 1 year followed by 1 year up, second accumulation zone 2 years followed by 1 up, now 3 year accumulation followed by 1 up? @TheRealPlanC

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

The vast majority have got it totally wrong.

You are all looking at the last 4 years of overall Crypto price performance, and labelling it weaker than any cycle we've ever had.

This is because almost everyone simply believes in the 4 year cycle, which is wrong.

If you look at the Crypto market through that lens, yes, it would have been a weak cycle.

But what you guys need to understand is that we are actually still within the same cycle.

When you understand this, you will understand that the price action we have seen from Ethereum, and the wider Crypto market, is exactly what should have been expected within the first half of the cycle, and how it has always performed.

As I have been saying for a very long time...

Time does not decide the cycle.

The overall macro economic situation does.

Here, I have attempted to make this as clear as possible.

Each cycle so far has been at the will of the Business cycle, and COPPER/GOLD further displays this point.

This current cycle, has been, by far, the longest contraction on Business cycle and COPPER/GOLD.

And therefore, the longest consolidation for the overall Crypto market, as you can easily see, through the Etherem and Total3 chart, and how the consolidation periods without new sustained highs, have increased alongside the business cycle contraction periods.

This is not a coincidence.

The reason you all think Ethereum and altcoins are dead is because you are expecting a greater performance than they have ever put in within this part of the overall cycle.

Simply put: We are in the same cycle, and have not yet reached the part of the cycle in which Ethereum and altcoins have always performed.

Ethereum and altcoins are consolidating for a longer period because the overall macro has been in contraction for a longer period.

However, that has now moved to expansion, in both the business cycle and COPPER/GOLD...

Just as you are all labelling it dead.

Ethereum has not lots momentum and it is not inherently weaker than any period before...

It is just not yet at the phase of the cycle where it outperforms the market.

But soon.

[TechDev @TechDev_52]

Last cycle top was in 2021.

And the fun part of this one *finally* looks about ready to get started.

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@Sykodelic_ I remember selling Solana when it was dead at $12.

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@dangambardello The last indicator is the return of bitboy

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@martypartymusic Honey I shrunk the kids lied to us

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@OMApproach Would these be the extend of the flooding or where water levels level off at after washing across most of the continent?

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@naiivememe My dad asking me if I got them half price every time he saw them

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@Cryptoinsightuk

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@Cryptoinsightuk I was looking at this exact thing today

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@jameslavish 🍁

[Decode @decodejar]

You might not be ready for what comes next.

[Andrew Tate @Cobratate]

Always judge a book by its cover.

Even if you’re wrong about the person, the book is at minimum an idiot for not fixing their image problem.

[kingbobmb @kingbobmb]

@TomCrown Did coal pump?

[X-Art ☀️ @Dogeh8er]

Some things represent the past.

@bgarlinghouse knows exactly what comes next.

#IYKYK #XRP @ripple

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.

This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.

So far, it’s been pretty bang on.

Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time.

No, it won’t be perfect, but assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.

As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.

In that world, the 4-year cycle is dead.

Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle, as outlined in our work at GMI, which post-COVID was pushed out by one year.

In our view, the 4-year cycle is now officially broken because the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.

And the bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth.

Another thing to keep in mind is that bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.

Finally, let me repeat what I said when I first posted this chart last month.

If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along...

[Moon Lambo @MoonLamboio]

I'm making a prediction:

If @RaoulGMI & @BittelJulien's thesis is correct (I know @TechDev_52 & @fundstrat believe the same or similar thing) about the crypto market not being in a bear market, and the crypto market topping in 2026 due to a 5 year debt refinancing cycle instead of the usual 4 years, breaking what people perceive as the 4 year cycle...

...many of the chart analysts who are currently insisting we're in a bear market, or heading toward one, will say that the fact the crypto market ends up peaking in mid to late 2026 is actually because it's a separate market cycle.

The bears will not admit they were wrong. They will maintain their argument that we were in a bear market. They'll say it was just a more shallow-than-normal bear market and come up with justifications for that perspective.

They will not admit that the reason for the delay in a euphoric market peak this cycle was due to an extended debt refinancing cycle which delayed the increase in global liquidity that we've become accustomed to.

I personally think Raoul, Julien, TechDev & Tom Lee are probably right in their beliefs. To believe we're in a bear market now is to say "this time is different" because it's never happened in a world where global M2 is near all time highs and on track to increase dramatically for multiple reasons.

You can always find various metrics that are a little different than in previous cycles. But when you're talking about global liquidity, you're talking about the backbone. Other metrics that may vary to one degree or another from the past are downstream from global liquidity. They are far less consequential indicators.

[Samson Mow @Excellion]

Me when #Bitcoin recovers from a dip.