Lea Lavut

RT ≠ endorsement, views my own/ some tweets are FYIs, some likes are bookmarks.

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Another 10,000 Ground Troops preparing for Iran, raising total to 17,000. Stage 3 of Escalation Trap gets closer by the day, even as Sec Rubio says ground forces unnecessary. Track troops and logistics, not rhetoric https://t.co/u96L9wsT0u

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Decision Desk HQ projects Zohran Mamdani to win the New York City Mayor election.

#DecisionMade: 9:03 pm ET

Follow live results on our website.

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

What's the most important issue for you (Change from 2 weeks ago)

⚠️ Inflation 20% (+2)
⚠️ Jobs 14%
⚠️ Immigration 10%
⚠️ Government spending 9% (+3)
⚠️ Civil rights 8% (-2)
⚠️ Health care 8% (-1)

Economist #B - 1590 A - 6/23

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

The liberal candidate Mamdani has a ninety-eight percent chance to become the Democratic candidate in the New York City mayor race (Polymarket)

[IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ @iaeaorg]

Following attacks on three nuclear sites in Iran - including Fordow - the IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time.
IAEA will provide further assessments on situation in Iran as more information becomes available.

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Kamala Harris’s chances of winning have risen from 50% to 56% in the final update of our presidential model https://t.co/Fjgpl7lO4o 👇

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

🇺🇲 10 Final Presidential Election Forecasts

@FiveThirtyEight
🟦 Harris: 270 🏆
🟥 Trump: 268
——
@NateSilver538
🟦 Harris: 271 🏆
🟥 Trump: 267
——
@DecisionDeskHQ
🟥 Trump: 275 🏆
🟦 Harris: 263
——
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
🟦 Harris: 276 🏆
🟥 Trump: 262
——
@TheEconomist
🟦 Harris: 270 🏆
🟥 Trump: 268
——
@Elections_Daily
🟦 Harris: 292 🏆
🟥 Trump: 246
——
@CNalysis
🟦 Harris: 308 🏆
🟥 Trump: 230
——
@DailyMail/@J_L_Partners
🟥 Trump: 287 🏆
🟦 Harris: 251
——
@jhkersting
🟦 Harris: 272 🏆
🟥 Trump: 266
——
@RacetotheWH
🟦 Harris: 275 🏆
🟥 Trump: 263

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

The national picture: Harris's lead in @CookPolitical's final polling average is 48.7%-47.8% (0.9 pts). Harris lead is back up to 80%-15% w/ Black voters, while Trump has gained slightly w/ men, white voters and 18-29 year olds in the final month. https://t.co/jmmbiSvYGu

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

#Updated Nate Silver model - Electoral collage

Harris takes the lead

🔵 Harris 270 🏆
🔴 Trump 267

[Political Polls @Politics_Polls]

Final National @Ipsos / @Reuters poll:

Harris 50% (+2)
Trump 48%

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

📊 Final Swing States Poll by NYT/Siena

NORTH CAROLINA
🟦 Harris: 48% (+2)
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
GEORGIA
🟦 Harris: 48% (+1)
🟥 Trump: 47%
—
WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 49% (+2)
🟥 Harris: 47%
—
NEVADA
🟦 Harris: 49% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 47% (=)
🟥 Trump: 47%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 48% (=)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 45%

#1 (3.0/3.0) | 10/29-11/2 | Likely voters
https://t.co/J7JGFEzCA7

[Haley Britzky @halbritz]

CENTCOM public affairs tomorrow fielding questions about abdul

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

#New @Reuters Poll

🔵 Harris 44% (+2)
🔴 Trump 42%

IPSOS - 1018 RV - 7/22

[Sam Stein @samstein]

MAJOR news in the Dem infrastructure world. Biden camp is considering ditching ActBlue

https://t.co/As352po9MB

via @hollyotterbein and @ZachMontellaro

[Ken Klippenstein @kenklippenstein]

The U.S. military has deployed thousands of troops to the Middle East since Hamas’s attack on Israel but refuses to disclose the military bases or even host nations of the deployments — not for security reasons, but to spare the host nations embarrassment.
https://t.co/bmz44wTsfN

[Lucas Tomlinson @LucasFoxNews]

Israeli Air Force chief: We have plans to strike Yemen too

[Lea Lavut @lealavut]

A pointed message:

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

For the third time in eight days, B-1 Lancers conducted missions in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility demonstrating the ability to rapidly project combat power.

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

WSJ News Exclusive: The Biden administration is planning a $320 million transfer of precision bombs for Israel, a major weapons deal that comes amid heightened concerns in Congress about the rising civilian death toll https://t.co/0TNMzWqvcB

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: The Wall Street Journal reports that the 🇺🇲 United States is planning a $320 million weapons transfer to the 🇮🇱 IDF

[Lucas Tomlinson @LucasFoxNews]

This U.S. Air Force B-1 bomber with attached sniper pod was flying over Saudi Arabia Sunday when the cruise missile submarine USS Florida transited the Suez Canal. The B-1 carries the largest conventional bomb payload in the Air Force’s inventory.