Nassau Centrist Mapper

English & Film Professor/#Educator/#FilmBuff/Mapmaker: House (specialty), County & Precinct Maps/Proud Long Island #ModerateDem/Dad💙👦🏼👩🏼🚫No DMs

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

America at 250, Part IV - 200 Years In

Coinciding with Jimmy Carter’s narrow defeat of Gerald Ford, ‘76 marked the last time to date that either party held a 2/3 House majority.

Dems achieved this by doing well in the cities, while also maintaining a strong grip on the South - despite significant GOP gains over the preceding decade.

Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

America at 250, Part III - 150 Years In

While the 50 & 100 year anniversaries saw ultra-divisive presidential elections, 1926 followed Calvin Coolidge’s blowout win in ‘24.

With the nation booming during the Roaring Twenties, Dems made only modest House gains, with Rs maintaining a comfortable majority. Dems kept their stranglehold over the Solid South, while Rs dominated in New England, the Mid-Atlantic (outside NYC), the Midwest and the growing West Coast.

Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

The big difference between 2010 and this year is that more than half the GOP gains in ‘10 were “realignment” pickups (where Dems were on borrowed time), while the rest were in swing seats.

Dems made sweeping gains in double digit Trump districts in the House and the Senate this year.

[Patrick 🇺🇸🇻🇦 @Pat_RickUSA]

“Obama messed up healthcare and the economy, and the Obama Administration is completely tainted because of it. He even lost Illinois! Obama needs to resign immediately because that’s the only way Democrats can win in 2012”

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@Dais77NY @StatisticUrban Yes, 2030 could easily be a rehash of 2010 if Dems don’t play their cards right.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@Englishgrr4u Technically “were” (subjunctive), but “was” is broadly accepted. Similar confusion often comes in with the Spanish subjunctive, which is much more frequently used than the English one.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@keeshalldaylong @Sinfulskin2 @jasonllevin @SassyIsADancer @eliseannpb @DebbieDem3 @alterfly @Chervrolet80 @reachen @ToOl93027 @Shiptech90 @lorenza71319 @PicklesDude52 @rahansen1 @OliviasMumSue @BlueHereMaritza Followed all new Keesha. Enjoy the rest of your day everyone! A rough evening weather wise here in the Big Apple! 💙😺😎

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@Sinfulskin2 @keeshalldaylong @IIKnowIDont @Sigmund84540696 @AllisonNeedHope @iamAtheistGirl @inventionsmom @Renee93405389 @Maxinetheblack1 @dinjup27 @aphroditeashe @Janabw81 @Jackmcd01759084 @jeanangel58 @jmoeti57 @justmenow181 @BC_and_CC Followed a few new Sin. I hope everyone’s enjoying their Friday Eve! 💙😺😎

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@PoliticalDeamon It would depend almost entirely on who wins the presidential election that year.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

I had said a while back that AES would get treated as a generic Dem in this year’s MI Senate race. This is exactly what happened.

He won by a nearly identical margin as Debbie Stabenow, a much more traditional politician, in 2018.

[Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17]

Do moderate politicians have an electability advantage still? Yes, but it's smaller than ever before — and worth thinking about @TheArgumentMag.

(With some preliminary findings from our @SplitTicket_ Wins-Above-Replacement/WAR model!)
https://t.co/AO5iDszb6C

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@PoliticalDeamon Impossible to predict this far out. We’ll literally be on our second presidential election by then.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@BeshearStan

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

And with that, MS elects its first Dem Senator since 1982.

Colom’s win changes the political equation in MS to some degree. How angry are black voters over the VRA gutting? Do Rs still redraw the maps? How do they handle another likely Gov run from Brandon Presley next year?

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

VoteHub projects Scott Colom to win the Mississippi U.S. Senate election.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@Aseemru Still one of the safest gerrymanders drawn in recent years. No seats changed hands the whole decade.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@AndrewDahDude @kkondik Yup, it would likely be 2010 all over again (though without the realignment aspect to it).

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

PROJECTION: Scott Colom defeats Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in a historic upset in Mississippi, which Trump won by 23 points in 2024. The state’s last Black Senator was born a slave, and its last Democratic senator was a segregationist.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@thepassingtramp @abreezeclayton @Athenas_Son_V You’d call this gerrymandering?! 😹

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@Sinfulskin2 @Honest562023 @keeshalldaylong @BC_and_CC @Ana_bel_1 @OliveMyrtl59148 @SCYBERNETIK_BK @colelf69 @AnnieForTruth @TheOnlyEsta2 @hoopsmccann967 @ReggieW26185238 @Jac_lovesmusic1 @DelilloM @Sean_Heuston_16 @chflutter @DanielS42245695 Followed a couple of new Sin. I hope everyone’s day is going well! 💙😺😎

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@thepassingtramp @abreezeclayton @Athenas_Son_V They complained until they cleaned up on the map in the 1994 elections.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@NilesGApol Yep.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

Honestly, it’s Colom likely winning the MS Senate race. In particular, I was shocked he won DeSoto county, which has even gone red in super strong Dem performances, like Brandon Presley’s 2015 Public Service Commissioner election.

[Center for Politics at UVA @Center4Politics]

NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: @loujacobson on the scope of the Democrats' massive state legislative and downballot statewide successes last week: https://t.co/5BDiPY3ccw (new state leg. control pictured)