Daniel Markovits

Phd student in political science @Columbia studying voter responses to democratic threat in America.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

I am happy to share two pieces of news:

For the 2026-2027 academic year. I will join the Litowitz Center for Enlightened Disagreement @KelloggSchool as a postdoc working with @EliJFinkel and Nour Kteily.

Then, in Fall 2027, I will join @LSEGovernment as an Assistant Professor.

I am incredibly excited about both positions and grateful to friends, family, mentors and co-authors who have helped me along the way.

I am excited to be doing more work on strategic voting, democratic norms, field experiments and many other topics. So please reach out if you are Evanston or London (or anywhere else I suppose).

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

This looks like a very cool paper that I look forward to reading.

Especially the point in the last tweet that the right way to think about the electoral effects of moderation is to consider the counter-factual of a whole party taking a moderate stance and voting accordingly.

[Chris Tausanovitch @CTausanovitch]

New paper with @johnmmurph just conditionally accepted at @apsrjournal:

Can people guess how majorities of each party in Congress voted on bills? Mostly yes.

Can they guess how their own representatives voted on bills, above what is accounted for by party? Mostly no. 🧵

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@seanjwestwood Its interesting that the partisan gap is much larger for learning a trade than attending a four year college.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@Wubenmensheng Yes! And behavior along the whole range from "doesn't endorse" to "enthusiastically campaigns for" seems relevant.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

Its interesting to watch the parties trying with massively varying degrees of sucess to push losing candidates into backing nominees.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

#TexasSenate

Rep. Jasmime Crockett (D-TX) says in new interview that the Black community isn't interested in James Talarico.

"I personally don't feel like the excitement necessarily exists within the Black community ... I don't feel like they're excited."

Link to interview: https://t.co/j7M2wNJ0qs

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@JBSDC I think your perspective is what a lot of the academic literature says should happen if people think democracy is in danger.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

This thread makes the good point that (1) some groups within parties prioritize something other than winning general elections and (2) no-one will ever admit their candidates aren't the best bet to beat the other side.

Given that, I bet you would get a much more honest answer to the question "what winning probability would you sacrifice to achieve your ideological goals?" than "is your preferred primary candidate really the best bet in the general?"

[Justin Slaughter @JBSDC]

I’ll have more thoughts on Platnerdammerung and its appalling end later, but I think the macro political significance of it is everyone realizing he was part of a coherent and focused faction that is oriented not at beating the GOP but taking control of the Democratic Party.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

It does seem like a problem that between the house, senate and presidency there is basically nothing citizens of safe districts can do that is relevant to national electoral politics except (1) donate and (2) make headlines that shape the party brand.

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

I sincerely don’t know how to escape the attention black hole that is New York City, but obviously to the extent you care about policy the outcome of races in Alaska, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa matters a million times more than NYC House primaries.

https://t.co/6taIZlEUyO

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@dhopkins1776 I do think it's really interesting that while Vance certainly says plenty of conspiratorial things he also sounds far more measured and calm in interviews compared to Trump.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

I think "obviously political investigations are a gift to the investigated" is a good sign of democratic resilience since the surge in donations and attention outweighs the minimal legal jeopardy.

It will be a bad sign if this stops being true.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

NOTUS: Pete Hegseth’s War on Mark Kelly Was a Political Gift

“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tried to brand Sen. Mark Kelly as ‘seditious’ and moved to strip him of his military rank. It hasn’t worked out that way.”

“Democratic strategists say the feud has driven attention and millions in campaign cash toward the Arizona Democrat as he ‘seriously’ considers a 2028 presidential run in what will likely be a crowded field.”

https://t.co/m2qKXX4A59

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@mattyglesias I think it's bad for there to be days when the candidate who lost is leading.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@seanjwestwood I don't understand why the proposal would reduce gerrymandering. It would make it harder to do by hand I suppose.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@RobbWiller I don't think this fraud problem is all that hypothetical.

The biggest risk is probably from an R-run state trying to throw out the votes from a big Dem county on a pretext.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

This paper makes by far the best argument for the electoral college.

[QJPS Editors @qjps_editors]

From the latest issue of the QJPS, "Electoral College and Electoral Fraud" by Georgy Egorov and @k_sonin. A thread.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@dhopkins1776 It's funny to imagine something like a an out-of-office office 2028 contender running in a house special in 27 to show they can out-perform. But even that is different in 5 ways.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@jon_m_rob Yes true deliverism means good outcomes, not good policies.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@dov_levin Yeah I think it's possible there won't be lockdowns at a time when they are needed, but something even 5 times as deadly as COVID will create totally different politics very quickly.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

This is a very strange argument. If there is a 30% fatality virus spreading in the population the public demand for extreme measures will be overwhelming. No one will care about COVID era grudges about public health.

[Ilya Shapiro @ishapiro]

@asymmetricinfo You only get one lockdown every 100 years or so. Our public health authorities beclowned themselves and wasted it on a relative nothingburger (for the general population, not the elderly or those with comorbidities), so if/when we get an actual severe pandemic, we’re screwed.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@SierraThomander @KelloggSchool @EliJFinkel @LSEGovernment Thanks Sierra, congrats to you as well!

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

I am happy to share two pieces of news:

For the 2026-2027 academic year. I will join the Litowitz Center for Enlightened Disagreement @KelloggSchool as a postdoc working with @EliJFinkel and Nour Kteily.

Then, in Fall 2027, I will join @LSEGovernment as an Assistant Professor.

I am incredibly excited about both positions and grateful to friends, family, mentors and co-authors who have helped me along the way.

I am excited to be doing more work on strategic voting, democratic norms, field experiments and many other topics. So please reach out if you are Evanston or London (or anywhere else I suppose).

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@dilanesper Yes but it's not clear how much the parties should care about having 180 seats vs 200. What matters is winning control in close years.

[Daniel Markovits @markovitis]

@alicemalmberg1 @SNFAgora Congrats!