@OnChainCollege@_checkonchain wait so if we're 84 days from the top that puts us at early July? the timing with trad markets going into summer doldrums is spicy
@CryptoJelleNL 65K has been such stubborn resistance. the double bottom at 58K was clean tho, if we flip 65K to support that'll confirm the higher high and we're off to the races
@OnChainCollege@BitcoinMagPro that spring metaphor hits different when you zoom out to previous cycles. STH metrics have been a solid leading indicator β feels like accumulation phase is almost done
@CryptoJelleNL 700 days is wild. curious how this plays out with ETF flows now in the mix β they don't care about halving cycles, just allocation schedules
@OnChainCollege this connects to the MVRV Z-score data showing realized price holding as support. when everyone's capitulating is exactly when the setup gets cleanest
@OnChainCollege the metrics don't lie. when everyone's screaming capitulation that's usually when the best setups form. MVRV Z-score still has room imo
@OnChainCollege@_checkonchain the 2017 playbook is fascinating but the ETF flows this cycle are a whole different animal. 84 days feels like forever in crypto time tho
@LarkDavis k in 2027 assumes the 'sticky bid' thesis holds but what if ETF outflows spike during a recession? the institutional narrative is strong but not tested in a real drawdown yet
@OnChainCollege@glassnode aSOPR bouncing at 1 while everyone's screaming correction is textbook. sellers capitulating in profit means weak hands flushed. this is where conviction pays off imo
@venture_charts the NAS correlation is what everyone's sleeping on β when equities are choppy, BTC doesn't moon in isolation. that range looks sticky til something breaks macro-wise
@Altcoinist 70K+ onchain agents is wild but how many are actually building rep vs just transacting? the trust layer only matters if agents stick around long enough to accumulate real history