Noah Peterson

flying drones and eating scones

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@DurableCreators Big fan of this trend. Would love to hear your thoughts.

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@zerohedge Asymptotes are starting to form! With the current injectables/oral offerings, a 70/30 split seems reasonable. Any technology or innovation risks that I’m not aware of that could radically change this trend?
@Invesquotes
@peter_mantas
@Borlaug_
@ZissouCapital

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@Invesquotes I haven’t read the full report yet, but it seems that the 14% share stat is specific to orals for weight loss and doesn’t include orals for other indications. So oral share vs injectables would be implied to be much higher than 14%.

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@DurableCreators Video games will grow mid to high single digits for a decade. $NTDOY margins will grow substantially as the % of digital game increase. Pair that with free advertising from the Nintendo cinematic universe and Nintendo Switch Online pricing power.
@Invesquotes anything to add?

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@compound248 Honorable mention to $STVN - a month off all time lows.
Sticky recurring revenue business tied to long term secular tailwinds from biologics and home health with the ability to increase margins substantially, unfairly punished for investing in growth capex.
@Invesquotes

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@compound248 $NTDOY
@AboveAvgOdds can elaborate, but in a few words:
- The Switch 2 has proven that it is not another Wii U
- Hardware input prices will be volatile, but digital game sales will continue to increase margins for years
- Nintendo Universe = negative cost ads for 1st party games

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@Invesquotes Seems like $WST is showing destocking may be over. If $STVN can stabilize the engineering segment, they are positioned for strong earnings growth over the next 3+ years. At some point sentiment has to shift and $STVN will rerate or management will be able to take it private.

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@TheLAPurchaser Is $STVN Engineering segment finally going to grow this year? Are we going to start seeing tailwinds from onshoring?

[Hank Green @hankgreen]

Look, I'm not an oncologist but I am frustrated by the way this dog cancer story is being interpreted from a bunch of different angles and I think basically all of this can be cleared up if people understood like...six things.

You should know these 6 things about cancer:

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@RNAiAnalyst Injectables are sticking around.
“58% of patients who were on a 36-milligram dose of Lilly's drug in the study reported mild-to-moderate side effects, including nausea, diarrhea and vomiting”
@Borlaug_ @Invesquotes @ZissouCapital @peter_mantas
https://t.co/8AcQqnrKAt

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@WSJ A large part of this price drop can be attributed to Medicare reimbursement changes coming in 2027, but lower prices means volume will have to compensate for lost revenue. $STVN should be positioned well for the next few years.
@Invesquotes @peter_mantas @Borlaug_ @ZissouCapital

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@peter_mantas What is preventing you from saying that $STVN is a pound the table opportunity? Are you waiting for confirmed successful execution of Fishers & Latina or are you thinking the valuation is still not cheap enough?

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@Calvsams @Invesquotes @peter_mantas @Borlaug_ @ZissouCapital “Injectable packaging CMOs face headwinds from vaccines and shifts to oral and multi-dose GLP-1 formats, though the firm thinks oral GLP-1 risk is largely priced in”
$STVN from $23 to $17.5 and $WST from $365 to $295.
Catching with the narrative more than thoughtful analysis.

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

$BDX commentary validating $STVN's capex plans: "We are seeing continued momentum in injectable GLP1. We continue to see the largest pharma companies putting billions of dollars... in injectable capacity, including in the US. @Invesquotes @peter_mantas @Borlaug_ @ZissouCapital

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@Calvsams @Invesquotes @peter_mantas @Borlaug_ @ZissouCapital I have not. Would you be willing to share it?

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

Further validation that $BDX is not anticipating cannibalization of injectables with oral GLP-1 launches: "And people really view orals as complementary rather than displacing injectables at scale. So we're continuing to be bullish on that"

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@ZissouCapital @0xFuckleroy @Borlaug_ Might not happen this quarter… but sentiment the last few weeks may be setting up for a quick and violent reset for $STVN

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@sadandlonely_69 @Borlaug_ Totally fair, but I was intending to highlight revenue segment growth rates. Stabilization of revenue to management’s guidance pushes HVS to about 50% of total revs.
Mid Term Guidance:
• LDD Total Rev Growth
• LSD Bulk BDS Rev Growth
• MSD Engineering Rev Growth after catchup

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@peter_mantas The capex investment and margin expansion is playing out exactly as management has communicated for years. I see the inflection as well, but headline numbers don’t tell the story. Do you think management will share updated medium term guidance to help spell it out more clearly?

[Noah Peterson @noahpetey]

@evfcfaddict @Ax3l_Blaze @ZissouCapital I understand selective disclosures of KPIs, but management’s lack of transparency regarding GLP exposure is creating a false narrative. I hope leadership is preparing strategic disclosures and an updated mid term guidance for the upcoming earnings call.