Open Model Project

Crowd wisdom * traditional election modeling = better forecasting?

We'll see.

Support independent, transparent polling & forecasting at

[Open Model Project @OpenModelProj]

At https://t.co/DmwmxocOmH, we’ve adopted a radically transparent, messily iterative approach to election modeling, giving everyone free & open access, encouraging you to spin the dials, pull the levers, and see how it actually works.

And we want you to help make it better.

[Open Model Project @OpenModelProj]

They forgot to fix polling again?

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

"Polls are tightening in 2022 Generic Ballot Polling"

-In 2020, Pollsters overstated Dem support by 4.2%
-How many pollsters adjusted their samples to reflect reality?
Answer: Quinnipiac and WSJ
-The rest still Oversample Dems and Undersample Indies
- Adjusted: GOP +5.6%

[Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 @peterwildeford]

Here are my odds for who will win the 22 June NYC Mayor Dem primary:

Adams63%
Wiley 13%
Garcia 11%
Yang 9%
Someone else 4%

Here's a spreadsheet outlining my model, though I'm not sure if it really makes that much sense: https://t.co/ELTyGEqtGW

(Credit @iabvek for insight)

[Old Bull TV @OldBullTV]

"@PredictIt Live" goes, well, *live* at 1 pm today.

@FlipPidot hosts @pjchougule @RobertMartinLT and @GaetenD with the world premiere of your exclusive source for real-time coverage of the stock market for politics.

Watch/subscribe at:
https://t.co/pv3gZ24szx

[Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 @peterwildeford]

Me talking about how strong Eric Adams is *before* he went on to outpoll Yang once

[Open Model Project @OpenModelProj]

https://t.co/IYHPdkftpw

[Open Model Project @OpenModelProj]

Wiley claws back to 3rd as Stringer continues to unravel.

Yang still (in fact never more so) the overwhelming favorite among traders.
https://t.co/Uaw8hvq1Ij

[OpenSecrets.org @OpenSecretsDC]

In the New York City Mayor's race, women’s groups are beginning to coalesce around one candidate: Maya Wiley, a former counsel to current Mayor Bill de Blasio.

https://t.co/KKjnHWoWpF

[Open Model Project @OpenModelProj]

https://t.co/9C8E2bYn90

[Open Model Project @OpenModelProj]

This time they'll fix it.

[Old Bull TV @OldBullTV]

https://t.co/TaPFFu72pm

[Open Model Project @OpenModelProj]

They're catching on.

Baby steps.

[FiveThirtyEight @FiveThirtyEight]

PSA: We’re sharing the data and code behind some of our articles and graphics. We hope you’ll use it to check our work and to create stories and visualizations of your own. https://t.co/W73YCVMsUK

[GeoVane @GeovaneVideo]

📢New Podcast: The Right Side of Maybe

Inspired by the saying popularized by @PTetlock, @dgardner, #BarbMellers, The Right Side of Maybe focuses on learning about and from elite forecasters.

In the first episode, we talked to @PeterHurford! (1/4) https://t.co/3wf3q69MZr

[Old Bull TV @OldBullTV]

Thread.

[Gwynne Hogan @gwynnefitz.bsky.social @GwynneFitz]

Cliff notes from a very interesting zoom

[Open Model Project @OpenModelProj]

New episode: "All Noise, No Signal"

@FlipPidot @peterhurford and @HarryDCrane investigate
@FiveThirtyEight's utterly failed attempt to distinguish good pollsters from bad.

Cross-posted at our sister pod at @OldBullTV
https://t.co/qtJkk3aMg2

[NYC Mayor's Race 2025 @NYCMayorsRace]

8pm update with a few more filings in. The early leaders in # of contributors for March period:

@mayawiley - 4,193
@Dianne4NYC - 3,852
@KGforNYC - 2,081
@ShaunDonovanNYC - 1,734
@scottmstringer - 1,597
@ericadamsfornyc - 662

@AndrewYang and @RayForMayor pending.

[Gotham Gazette @GothamGazette]

NEW: The Money Race in the Democratic Mayoral Primary: March Filing Key for Matching Funds - by @samarkhurshid https://t.co/t0dnJkwNbD

[Ben Max @TweetBenMax]

New: At Televised Debate, Democratic Mayoral Candidates Outline Housing, Homelessness Plans - @GothamGazette https://t.co/JDGW7YBbg3

[Ben Max @TweetBenMax]

Inbox: record-setting fundraising by @AndrewYang, with more than 15,600 individual contributions:

[Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 @peterwildeford]

How did the myth that live caller polls are the most accurate ever get started? Even filtering only to polls *before* 2016, live caller polls are not any more accurate than online

[Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 @peterwildeford]

🚨 INTERNSHIP ALERT 🚨

Rethink Priorities (my org) is hiring research interns!

This position is 3 months, 20-40 hours per week, paid $23-25/hr, fully remote, and comes with good management + feedback with a great team!

Details here: https://t.co/cK8gjddFrz