osilayer8

If you don’t want massive profits, feel free to buy after everything is priced in and confirmed.

[Kolja Barghoorn @MitAktien]

Daumen hoch und teilen, damit sie es sehen Leute! Wer will Uwe Boll bei Ben Ungeskriptet sehen? Das würde dem Zensur-System endgültig die Nerven rausballern 😂🤣😂 @benungeskriptet @BollFILMS

[Tom @TomSzczypka]

$LPK.DE re-score (massive upgrade)

Napkin math:
• FY2026 operating profit: ~€1M
• FY2028 operating profit: €144M
• Market cap today: ~€627M
• FY2028 target: ~€2.9B
• Upside: 4.6x from here

1/ LPKF makes the machine that drills holes through glass for AI chip packaging. The technology is called LIDE. No other production-grade tool can do what it does.

The CEO disclosed in June that 80% of major global players have selected LPKF equipment for process validation. 70% market share is the target.

2/ Why glass?

AI chips are getting so big that the organic substrates used to package them are hitting physical limits. They warp. They can't handle the heat. Heat handling is also required to hold onto this stock.

Glass solves all three. Lower warpage, better thermal stability, tighter via pitch. TSMC's next-gen CoPoS packaging uses a glass core sandwiched between ABF layers.

-=-=-=-=-=-
Ming-Chi Kuo (June 2026): "The glass core substrate is a must-have. Without it, even being able to make a usable chip is in doubt."
-=-=-=-=-=-

3/ To use glass, you need holes through it

LIDE does this with a two-step process: laser modifies paths inside the glass, then chemistry etches them out. Crack-free, 10x better sidewall quality than alternatives.

This is the step that makes glass packaging physically possible. LIDE is to glass what EUV is to silicon.

4/ CEO meeting notes (June 2026):

• Industry ready for first high-volume ramps
• 4-5 players ordering this year with 3-10 machines each
• Prior €500M addressable market estimate "will greatly exceed this"
• Revenue per system ~€1M
• Single-customer orders of €100M is what scaling infrastructure needs to handle
• Metallization bottleneck (the other hard step) is "more or less solved"
• LIDE is "only the entry ticket" to adjacent advanced packaging revenue

5/ The margin transformation:

• Legacy business (PCB, solar): 10% operating margin
• LIDE glass equipment: 35% operating margin
• As LIDE grows from 0% to 70%+ of revenue, blended margins go from breakeven to 31%

6/ The customers:

Intel: LIDE equipment installed. Glass-core substrates public.
Samsung SEMCO: process designed around LPKF.
TSMC: CoPoS glass substrate mass production targeting 4Q28-1Q29.
SKC/Absolics: $600M Georgia fab, 2027-28 mass production.
DNP, LG Innotek: 2027-28 targets.

Five of the six largest advanced packaging companies on earth are qualifying on LPKF equipment.

7/ Why this trades at €627M:

• Listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
• Current earnings are near zero
• Advanced packaging revenue is ~zero today. All the value is coming.

8/ The supply chain position:

AI Chip (NVIDIA/AMD/Broadcom)
→ Advanced packaging (TSMC CoPoS / Intel glass)
→ Glass core substrate needs TGVs drilled
→ LPKF LIDE (sole production-grade tool)
→ Metallization by $SHMD (Schmid)
→ Metrology by Onto Innovation

$LPK sits at the enabling equipment layer. Every glass substrate that ships was processed by a LIDE machine.

9/ Risks:

• Advanced packaging revenue is zero today. The entire thesis is forward-looking.
• Not absolute sole-source. 80% qualification share converts to a targeted 70% production share. Alternatives exist but are 10x worse on quality.
• Legacy business is dogshit

10/ Catalysts:

• SDAX inclusion June 22, 2026
• Q2 Q3 book to bill disclosure, production orders
• CEO's updated TAM model and "equity story" presentation
• Higher-volume exchange listing, management in discussions

Bonus (for those who like numbers, aka me)

FY2028 target: €118/share (4.6x from €25.60)

1/ V1 LIDE Glass Equipment: €300M
80-300 machines × ~€1M/system across 5-7 customers. Intel installed, Samsung SEMCO designed around LPKF, TSMC CoPoS 4Q28, SKC/Absolics $600M Georgia fab. CEO targeting 70% market share.

2/ V2 CPO Waveguide Writing: €60M
Intel patent for glass waveguides via LIDE. Ayar Labs glass photonic interconnect. Confirmed capability doubles TAM per customer.

3/ V3 Space & Defense: €30M
Schmid 700mm order. Starlink phased-array packaging. Fraunhofer IZM Glass Panel Technology founding member.

4/ V4 Legacy (declining): €55M
PCB, stencil, solar. Managed decline. Perovskite optionality.

5/ V5 Adjacent Advanced Packaging: €15M
CEO: "LIDE is only the entry ticket." Process licensing, consumables, service contracts.

6/ Total FY2028 revenue: €460M

Margin build:
• Legacy €55M at 10% OP = €5.5M
• LIDE + CPO €360M at 35% OP = €126M
• Space €30M at 30% OP = €9M
• Adjacent €15M at 25% OP = €3.75M

Blended operating profit: €144M (31% margin)

7/ Valuation:
€144M × 20x = €2.88B market cap
€2.88B / 24.5M shares = €118/share

20x justified by monopoly-equipment economics. ASML trades at 35x, KLA at 30x. Discounted for pre-volume stage and micro-cap scale.

8/ From €1M operating profit today to €144M in FY2028.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-==-=-=-=-=
If I knew about this earlier, I would have doubled my position. LPK is a top 6 holding for me. May try on Monday

[osilayer8 @osilayer8]

@BrainyMarsupial @aleabitoreddit good news!

[Rupert Lowe MP @RupertLowe10]

The Rape Gang Inquiry Report.

https://t.co/EuKgGWBRhS

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I genuinely think $XFAB is very compelling at $1.5B MC, despite recent volatility.

Per NIST filings stated they were the only high volume SiC foundry in America.

Making them extremely “critical infrastructure”… Verbatim from the US Gov.

And they’re the first comprehensive pure play foundry for SiC/GaN.

So it’s very compelling exposure as $NVDA pushes 800 VDC and as other power semi players from $NVTS and $WOLF are all re-rating hard.

For long term photonics exposure:

They were literally listed in CHIPS Act 2 blueprints… with $NOK / $NVDA evaluations right now.

And production ramp up in 2027/volume production H1 2028 expected.

So you have a company at $1.5B MC:

Critical both on the power semis front to the US government.

And critical to both photonics front to the EU government.

Coming off of a legacy drag cycle with auto and others (similar to Soitec).

I think I’d follow EU/US government signals for what’s critical infrastructure given expected dual continent subsidies…

Over random media analysts trying to cause unnecessary volatility saying it’s a memestock with no fundamentals.

[SpaceX @SpaceX]

Liftoff of Starship on its twelfth flight test

[osilayer8 @osilayer8]

https://t.co/6SLjYXdz0g

[osilayer8 @osilayer8]

@aleabitoreddit -> $GFS $QBTS $RGTI $INFQ . Today’s stock activity reflects news of a $2 billion grant package from the Trump administration for nine quantum-computing companies. Could this have a sustained effect on the sector, or are we still too early in the cycle?

[osilayer8 @osilayer8]

@aleabitoreddit Isn't financing the more important challenge? So ECM oder DCM bankers would be more of a benefit imo. And Sivers is more of a target than a potential buyer...

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

https://t.co/IJPmDDBHcq

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$LITE CEO basically confirmed GS TAM expansion + CPO Supercycle.

From ~close to nothing -> $91B. From H2 2026 to 2028:

“ I think what we’ve said is that we will have a massive supply demand imbalance on CPO”

Demand > Supply.

“Largest single growth driver, scale-up CPO”

Massive revenue driver is CPO.

“is very much in its infancy”.

We’re at the beginnings.

This is exactly why I have positions in $SIVE, MSScorps, Shunsin, $TSEM, $SOI and others for high beta exposure to the start of the CPO supercycle.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

🚀 for all mankind 🚀

[Reid Wiseman @astro_reid]

@elonmusk Thank you, @elonmusk - the four of us glimpsed the red hues of Mars far in the distance as the sun slipped behind the Moon and there was zero doubt in our minds that the creative genius of our greatest minds will have us there very soon. LETS GO

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just in: $NVDA invests $2B in $MRVL.

This deal is largely for “joint silicon photonics work” and validates Marvell and Celestial AI's optical fabric CPO roadmap.

But… guess who powers the light source for $MRVL that markets might have missed? (Hint: $SIVE)

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Wolfie: $NET Stock Catching a Little Clawdflare'

"What happened? Over the weekend, hype and excitement around Clawdbot exploded across social media, which flowed through to shares of NET rising >10% on Monday. For context, Clawdbot is an open-source AI agent built on Anthropic's Claude—effectively an AI employee that runs locally on your device and executes tasks autonomously.

The connection to Cloudflare is that as these agents scale (making API calls, accessing websites, routing inference requests), they require secure, low-latency infrastructure. Cloudflare’s global edge network is well-suited to support exactly that.

Our thoughts: We think this is a big moment for edge computing—and a clear positive for NET. Developers have been using Cloudflare Tunnels to securely host and access their Clawdbot instances for remote access, and Cloudflare’s AI Gateway already supports Anthropic’s Claude, allowing developers to route inference calls through NET’s network for caching, rate limiting, and observability.

As agentic tools like Clawdbot scale (making more API calls, hitting more websites, generating more traffic), we believe NET is positioned to capture that activity. The key takeaway is that while Clawdbot is still early, it’s showing engineers and investors what the future looks like: distributed AI agents running on edge devices, executing tasks autonomously, 24/7.

That future requires infrastructure (security, connectivity, low-latency compute), and Cloudflare is building for exactly that. More agents means more internet traffic and more need to protect against bot abuse and fraudulent queries. Management sees this clearly. On the Q3 call, CEO Matthew Prince said: “The agents of the future will inherently have to pass through our network and abide by its rules.”

Clawdbot is an early example of what that world looks like, and as more tools like it emerge, Cloudflare stands to benefit. NET’s Workers platform is consumption-based (pay-per-inference), meaning the more agents do, the more NET monetizes. Clawdbot is a signal that agentic AI is moving from demo to production, with NET’s infrastructure around edge computing and securing the agentic web incrementally more important."

[Künstliche Intelligenz @KI_Agent]

Anschaupflicht für alle deutschen Zufallsenergiefans: https://t.co/bgGmVo7Uw7
Amazon investierte 11 Milliarden USD in das KI-Rechenzentrum in St. Joseph County, Indiana (USA). Dort werden KI-Modelle trainiert und betrieben. Die Leistung von 2,2 GW ist das Äquivalent des Strombedarfs einer Stadt mit einer Million Haushalte.

[Insurrection Barbie @DefiyantlyFree]

Milton Friedman on illegal immigration…

[Matthew Prince 🌥 @eastdakota]

Yesterday a quasi-judicial body in Italy fined @Cloudflare $17 million for failing to go along with their scheme to censor the Internet. The scheme, which even the EU has called concerning, required us within a mere 30 minutes of notification to fully censor from the Internet any sites a shadowy cabal of European media elites deemed against their interests. No judicial oversight. No due process. No appeal. No transparency. It required us to not just remove customers, but also censor our 1.1.1.1 DNS resolver meaning it risked blacking out any site on the Internet. And it required us not just to censor the content in Italy but globally. In other words, Italy insists a shadowy, European media cabal should be able to dictate what is and is not allowed online.

That, of course, is DISGUSTING and even before yesterday’s fine we had multiple legal challenges pending against the underlying scheme. We, of course, will now fight the unjust fine. Not just because it’s wrong for us but because it is wrong for democratic values.

In addition, we are considering the following actions: 1) discontinuing the millions of dollars in pro bono cyber security services we are providing the upcoming Milano-Cortina Olympics; 2) discontinuing Cloudflare’s Free cyber security services for any Italy-based users; 3) removing all servers from Italian cities; and 4) terminating all plans to build an Italian Cloudflare office or make any investments in the country.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. While there are things I would handle differently than the current U.S. administration, I appreciate @JDVance taking a leadership role in recognizing this type of regulation is a fundamental unfair trade issue that also threatens democratic values. And in this case @ElonMusk is right: #FreeSpeech is critical and under attack from an out-of-touch cabal of very disturbed European policy makers.

I will be in DC first thing next week to discuss this with U.S. administration officials and I’ll be meeting with the IOC in Lausanne shortly after to outline the risk to the Olympic Games if @Cloudflare withdraws our cyber security protection.

In the meantime, we remain happy to discuss this with Italian government officials who, so far, have been unwilling to engage beyond issuing fines. We believe Italy, like all countries, has a right to regulate the content on networks inside its borders. But they must do so following the Rule of Law and principles of Due Process. And Italy certainly has no right to regulate what is and is not allowed on the Internet in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, China, Brazil, India or anywhere outside its borders.

THIS IS AN IMPORTANT FIGHT AND WE WILL WIN!!!

[Concerned Citizen @BGatesIsaPyscho]

Cloward-Piven Strategy - Sound familiar?

Because it’s exactly what’s happening in real time - you can see it.

[Nuklearia e. V. @Nuklearia]

Stellaria und Equinix haben einen Vorvertrag geschlossen: Ab 2035 sollen die ersten »Stellarium«-Flüssigsalzreaktoren Strom für Rechenzentren liefern. Der 250-MW-Reaktor kann laut Hersteller auch abgebrannten Kernbrennstoff (»Atommüll«) verwerten.
https://t.co/ZYdnb1vctf