I don’t really see the logic from PSA here. They’re overpaying by a large margin (low to mid 5 cap rate for the worst storage REIT portfolio in the market) hoping to drive 11-15% revenue synergy over time? Simply Storage and ezStorage acquisitions see revenue growth in the 3% range multiple years after acquisition and these were in much better markets. Think about how long it took for EXR to stabilize LSI. I get the margin uplift yada yada but this is the best opportunity they see in the market after spending the past month talking about how great PSA 4.0 is?
>15x, or essentially a 6.5 cap conservatively. You’re buying storage for 5.3% roughly after capex. Management services are near 100% FCF margin businesses where growth is based on rev of the underlying assets as well as unit growth. Contracts are short term <3 years, but it’s a business that for the right operators (particularly EXR), consistently grows mid single digits just on unit count on a secular basis with little to no incremental investment.
@TulsiGabbard@ggreenwald Why do you still work for trump? You should resign immediately so that you can still have a future in politics. You have been put in the backseat of every single major decision despite your official job title.
On LINE and COLD, I have in the past tried to get constructive but it’s always a challenge. They are down from peak valuations when investors were extrapolating Covid related trends and the investment community had a fundamentally wrong view of the right multiple for the cos. They were being priced in line with dry warehouse REITs. The multiples should (and now partially) reflect highly cyclical, high capex, low earnings visibility business models similar to the lodging REITs. This is before getting into GLP1s, cyclical concerns for the low end consumer, and higher incoming power costs given the data center buildout. Take LINE for example, add up 80% of their true capex, subtract out real cash payments on their financing leases (as they add back the amort to their AFFO number), and you get a business that still looks expensive relative to other op cos. Also, they are businesses that after all true cash payments become more expensive every year given the cash burn and requirement to pay dividends per REIT rules. In other words, net debt rises about a quarter turn to half a turn every year that EBITDA is flat to down given the operating model. Similar issue to the lodging REITs.