Peter Crerar

Interior Designer and Architect. Works in an International Interior Design Studio. Mayor of Rushmoor (2012 to 2013) and Community Campaigner for Manor Park Ward

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Llantwit Fardre (Rhondda Cynon Taf) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 57.6% (+8.7)
🌻 PLC: 18.2% (+1.9)
➡️ RFM: 13.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 10.4% (-24.4)
🙋 Ind: 0.6% (New)

Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2022.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Throckley, Walbottle & Newburn (Newcastle upon Tyne) Council By-Election Result:

➡️ RFM: 39.0% (-4.8)
🔶 LDM: 29.0% (+24.3)
🌹 LAB: 23.1% (-5.9)
🌍 GRN: 4.5% (-9.2)
🌳 CON: 4.4% (-4.4)

Reform UK HOLD.
Changes w/ 2026.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Portobello/Craigmillar (Edinburgh) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:

🌍 GRN: 28.0% (+11.8)
🎗️ SNP: 24.1% (-13.3)
🌹 LAB: 22.2% (-1.7)
➡️ RFM: 8.9% (New)
🌳 CON: 8.2% (-7.1)
🔶 LDM: 5.7% (+1.4)
👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 SFP: 1.1% (New)
⚙️ WPB: 0.9% (New)
🔓 ADF: 0.4% (New)
⚒️ COM: 0.3% (New)

No Ind (-1.6) or ALBA (-1.3) as previous.

Green 'Gain' from SNP - Stage 10.
Changes w/ 2022.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Southey (Sheffield) Council By-Election Result:

➡️ RFM: 50.6% (+0.6)
🌹 LAB: 37.3% (+12.8)
🌍 GRN: 6.5% (-6.4)
🌳 CON: 3.1% (-1.7)
🔶 LDM: 2.5% (-2.2)

No Ind (-2.6) or TUSC (-0.6) as previous.

Reform GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2026.

[Peter Crerar @PeterCrerar]

@RepublicStaff @eshaanakbar We spend alot more on benefits..... £333 Billion.

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

West Midlands:

Interesting to note Conservatives are leading here in the average of regional samples

They are just below their GE2024 result of 27.6%, while Labour are ~11pp below theirs

Reform have increased 8.5pp and had led the region for over a year until this week

Usual caveats - this is an average of polling sub-samples, but one of the first times we've seen Conservatives leading a region

Full data: https://t.co/P0qpYaHgK2

[Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ @LeftieStats]

🗳️ MRP projection for Holborn and St Pancras:

🟢 Green: 32% ( +21 )
🔴 Labour: 27% ( -22 )

Green GAIN from Labour ( 22% swing )

Via @ElectCalculus, 22-30 June
( +/- vs 2024 election )

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

2026 Local Election Results in Holborn & St Pancras [Top Vote Method]:

Vote Share | Seats

🌹 LAB: 38.3% | 22*
🌍 GRN: 29.1% | 7
➡️ RFM: 9.2%
🌳 CON: 8.4%
🔶 LDM: 7.0%
🏘️CPA: 6.0% | 1
🏠 NHP: 1.3%
🙋 Ind: 0.5%

*3 seats in Primrose Hill (42% of electorate within constituency).

[Peter Crerar @PeterCrerar]

@tomorrowsmps Hopefully whoever it is gets stuffed.

[ElectoralUK @Electoral_UK]

The moment Angela Rayner gets accused of calling Conservative MP "scum"

[Peter Crerar @PeterCrerar]

@jamesvlovell @GrahamSmith_ @metpoliceuk By your logic should people be able harass patients and medical professionals entering and leaving abortion clinics?

[Peter Crerar @PeterCrerar]

@IsabelMiles @GrahamSmith_ @metpoliceuk This is not protest. It is disruption of public events and harassment

[Peter Crerar @PeterCrerar]

@StyleDirections @GrahamSmith_ @metpoliceuk We don't pay for the Windsors as they are net contributers bring in huge amounts in tourism and to the third sector.

[Peter Crerar @PeterCrerar]

@PDRNHPUK @electionmapsuk To lose to Labour? This was a Labour seat in a ward split in May under Starmers catastrophic collapse. You would have expected Labour to have won by a much wider margin under the so called Burnham bounce.

[Peter Crerar @PeterCrerar]

@electionmapsuk @Survation Labour miles behind in a miserable third place 😄 If this is Burnham bounce where will Labour be in 6 months 😄 🤣 😂 😆 😄 🤣 😂

[Peter Crerar @PeterCrerar]

@electionmapsuk @FindoutnowUK All we have had is Burnham bounce with no scrutiny and Labour are already behind. Just imagine when Burnham has to face PMQs and deliver his nightmare budget 😅

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 24% (+2)
LAB: 22% (-2)
CON: 19% (-2)
GRN: 13% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
RES: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 16-17 Aug.
Changes w/ 9-10 Aug.

[ElectoralUK @Electoral_UK]

Remember this? This was the projected seat map of the United Kingdom in GE2024's exit poll.

[Opinium @OpiniumResearch]

🚨 New Opinium @ObserverUK poll 🚨

Andy Burnham's approval rating is down 5 points from last week. Are we seeing the decline of the Burnham bounce?

🌹Burnham +11
🌳Badenoch -4
🔶Davey -6
🌍Polanski -24
➡️Farage -28

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Looking at vote share increase across parties in the London 2026 locals:

Reform UK: vote share rose in 677 of 679 wards, and fell in just 2 - albeit Reform started from the lowest baseline

Green: rose in 643 wards, fell in 36 - up across most of London, inner and outer

Labour: vote share increased in just 4 wards out of 679, and they suffered vote share loss in 675