philip de vries

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@contang_o $SHIP is a micro-cap with good trading volumes. Easy to get in and out of, unlike most micro-cap shipping stocks. And its a pure play on cape size bulkers.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@contang_o $SHIP has long been a favorite of ST traders.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@Energy_Tidbits Trump does not have a good chance of an Iran deal. There is zero common ground between Iran and Trump. As everyone knows, Trump is a pathalogical liar.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@tleilax___ Ship owners can pay toll through third parties with crypto. No one will know. Whether you like it or not, these sort of off-the-books work arounds are normal practice in int'l trade.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@calvinfroedge Attack on Amazon data center is a warning to foreign investors that data centers built in Gulf may be attacked. There are plans for many large data centers in Gulf countries. Amazon attacks are economic warfare.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@gbrew24 US has the watches, Iran has the time. 14,000 precision weapons strikes by the US did not subdue Iran. Iran is more united today than its been in decades. Hormuz is closed again. Every day that global oil inventories drain, the US loses ground. Bombing will not change that.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@contang_o All rulers rule by consent, whether elected or not. Once citizens turn against their rulers, its over for the ruler. Trump is marching closer to that crisis everyday.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@contang_o If Dems win US House, Trump administration will be tied down w. investigations & administration officials including Trump will be impeached. SPR running out is an economic bazooka. If that happens, absent Hormuz opening, whole world will turn against Trump.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@contang_o Robert Pape [Escalation Trap substack] has a very good frame work for understanding what is happening between US & Iran. Kuppy not so much.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@contang_o That's not what this is about. Both sides jockeying. Daily, Iran's leverage rises as SPRs drain & Iran's legitimacy increases in Gulf. US actions hurt US as oil prices rise. Two drop dead dates for Trump: Nov election, SPR at min level. Tit for Tat with Iran doesn't help US.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@JuneGoh_Sparta @morgan_downey Thank you!

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@contang_o https://t.co/9IA1fYSWy8

[Alireza Talakoubnejad @websterkaroon]

Interesting excerpt from Ghalibaf's (Speaker of Parliament and head of the Islamic Republic's negotiating team) interview with State TV in which he says that the Strait of Hormoz is valuable to Iran when there is *increasing* traffic in it.

He points out the Strait didn't have the geopolitical importance it did today 100 years ago when there was no oil industry moving through it (implying scaring away traffic will reduce Iran's leverage) and that it isn't in Iran's interest to make a situation where in the long run all countries come up with alternate routes.

As such it is very much in Iran's interest to make the Strait (and Iranian side of it) as appealing as possible & increase traffic.

This interview comes as there is an increase in vocal disagreement in Tehran between pro-deal factions led by Ghalibaf & Pezeshkian and opponents of the agreement.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@contang_o Not a stable situation. Trump still playing games. Iranians deadly serious about their objectives.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@pati_marins64 No country has benefited more from Nato than US. In exchange for US protection, the world adopted US intellectual property rights laws, gave US financial cos. free access to their markets & strong protections of US investments in their countries. US received more than it gave.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@contang_o No one knows where this improvement in transit through the strait is temporary or permanent. Situation in Hormuz remains precarious.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@M_C_Klein You want Chinese people to consume more to solve the problems of other countries. That's not a compelling argument.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@M_C_Klein Chinese people appear to live better than Americans. Home ownership is much higher in China than US. Their savings rate is higher, crime rate lower. Chinese people are as healthy/healthier than Americans & live as long. China has much lower illegal drug use & suicide rate...

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@Big_Orrin Changes in oil/products inventories serve as a measure of the imbalance between supply and demand. If you treat SPRs as inventory and plot the aggregate inventory decline since the close of Hormuz, you see an enormous imbalance in which demand greatly exceeds supply.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@Big_Orrin SPR releases are oil supplies until the SPRs run out. SPRs are a very limited supply. Blockage of Hormuz is a disruption of unknowable duration. Today, the market thinks that Hormuz Straits are open based on an MOU. History of conflicts in ME suggest otherwise.

[philip de vries @pldevries2]

@Big_Orrin So far, we only have an MOU, a lot of distrust and many parties with conflicting agendas and trigger fingers.