Great read!
Be Bullish when many say "this makes NO SENSE",
Be Bearish when many say "this makes so much sense”
Bearish when the market STOPS confirming the consensus.
Market Trends that "make no sense" = robust (Bullish).
Market Trends that become consensus = fragile (Bearish)
1/ Druckenmiller's first mentor, Speros Drelles, would often tell him that "60 million Frenchman can't be wrong."
Here's a thread on what that means and how to know when you should listen to or ignore the "Frenchman" (market)...
Iran-US war is creating fear. Fear creates sellers. And sellers create the best buying opportunities in history.
$SPY returns 10 years after a war broke out:
• Gulf War (1990): +430%
• Korean War (1950): +372%
• Vietnam War (1955): +184%
• Iraq War (2003): +117%
• Bay of Pigs (1961): +108%
• World War II (1939): +108%
The people who sold during these wars never got back in at lower prices. They got back in higher, or never got back in at all.
Always buy the fear.
Every single cycle there are always signs. Hindsight is clearly 20/20 but always fun to look back.
1. Leopold being peddled as a celebrity, and every stock he mentioned or bought got bid up
2. Jensen calling $MRVL the "next trillion-dollar company," sending the stock up 32% in a single day
3. The Pattern Day Trader (PDT) rule getting removed. Since it was scrapped on June 4th, that practically marked the top on $MEME, down ~44% since
4. An anonymous "bottleneck" investor focusing on key chokepoints goes to nearly 1 million followers on X, pumping random foreign stocks hundreds of percent
5. Terry Smith capitulating on his strategy and incorporating "momentum"
6. Record use of margin and leverage by the Koreans. Total casino over there
7. Margin debt as % of M2 at its 2nd highest level in history, just behind the dot-com bubble
8. Newly minted "memory experts" finding $SNDK and turning bullish after a +2,000%+ 1-year run
9. $SPCX IPO
10. Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire on June 12, 2026
11. 5 sigma deviation for momentum stocks vs. low volatility
12. $SOXX $SMH "June 2026 marked the largest aggregate month of inflows into semiconductor ETFs, exceeding $19 billion."
Sentiment is fascinating to me. So much value in being aware of the narratives, what's going on beneath the surface, etc.
Always fun to go back and see how obvious it looks in hindsight, but not in the moment.
Purely for fun compiling this, but every cycle you start to sniff the froth out a little better.
What am I missing? Anyone got signs to add?
15 things to do with your mother while she is still alive. One day, you’ll wish you had.
1. Ask her about her life before you were born. She had dreams, fears, and a whole world that existed before she became mom.
2. Record her voice while she’s doing something ordinary like Cooking, Scolding, Laughing. One day, that voice will feel priceless.
3. Ask her what the hardest phase of her life was. She’ll probably talk about sacrifice without calling it sacrifice.
4. Learn one recipe she makes without measuring anything. Food is how many mothers express love. Appreciate the food she makes, you don’t know deep inside she will feel very happy.
5. Take photos of her doing everyday things.
Not posed or dressed up. Only Candid. These will mean more than any perfect picture.
6. Tell her thank you for things she never got credit for. She remembers everything, even if she never mentions it.
7. Tell her you’re proud of her.
Most mothers hear complaints far more than appreciation.
8. Ask her what she worries about the most.
Chances are, it’s still you.
9. Sit with her without checking your phone.
Just be present. That’s rare now.
10.Ask her what she wanted to be when she was young and listen without interrupting.
11. Hug her for no reason. Don’t rush it.
https://t.co/wuxftUs97U her even when you have nothing to say. One day, you’ll miss the sound of her answering.
13.Take a photo of just the two of you together. Frame it.
14.Ask her about her parents. Her stories keep generations alive.
15.Tell her something you’re struggling with.
No matter how old you are, it still matters to her that she can protect you.
If your mother is still alive, please do at least one thing from this list today. You’ll never regret it & take care of her health.
RT this for someone who still has time.
Celebrities acting like average Joes, a wholesome thread 🧵
1. The fact that a random couple ran into Keanu Reeves in a hotel lobby, invited him to their wedding, and he put on a suit and joined is proof he really is The One.
🚨🔥 WHO'S BEHIND THE ANTI-ICE RIOTS IN LOS ANGELES? 🔥🚨
Hundreds took to the streets this weekend: blocking roads, attacking federal officers, even burning flags. But this wasn't "spontaneous outrage."
This was organized. Funded. Coordinated.
Here’s a breakdown of the groups, the money, and the people pulling the strings.
Patience as I assemble the thread and verify information in real time 👇🧵
The bull market and epic runs are just getting started. Markets are yet to make new highs, and only a handful of the best names have. Rather than build into the best stocks, each normal market pause will have the opposite effect for most—they will worry and move to cash and refuse to buy back. The likely cause is they are worried about tariffs, the bond market, or countless other things to worry about.
There are a few key mistakes that hold most people back, and a major one that comes about after every deep correction is the drop has them thinking things are bad and stocks can’t possibly climb or that the risks are just too big. I know from experience…
It was 2011, I just had three great years to kick off my pro trading career, and my industry of focus had been gold and miners. Look back at a 2011 GDX chart, and you’ll think it’s a high-tech index. The issue with the gold trade is it is often predicated on the economy being in trouble.
I began trading gold stocks due to the financial crisis stimulus, but after three years and lots of profits, I began to fall for gold “hype.” Guys like Peter Schiff and others had/have really persuasive arguments about why things are about to get really bad, and once drawdown began for me in 2011, their negative arguments made me negative. There was a lot of bad “about to happen,” and it biased my outlook, ability to objectively assess new trends, and ability to hold winners. It took me over a year to remove the bias from my eyes, and I then swore I would always be unbiased and lean positive.
Negativity is something that hits nearly everyone who runs through their first deep drawdown or rapid bear market. The truth is a lot of bad things CAN happen. But people and the economic system tend to push markets higher and promote people to find solutions.
Did you notice how everyone was worried about tariffs, and once that issue was improving, bond market problems became apocalyptic and “just about to happen”? Just imagine what I was reading in 2011 after a financial crisis and looming EU debt crisis. I don’t know how the world ever made it to 2025! (sarcasm)
So, it is not technical, but if you want to make some life-changing market returns, if you even want to catch one major run in a leading growth stock—it all starts with mindset, and that means staying positive and actively working to block constantly negative people. Look at track records. If someone has been negative for five years, they’ll be negative for the next twenty. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
AI is and will change the world, and that means epic stock opportunities. Can you imagine being negative on internet stocks in 1995 because 1994 had some economic issues? Prepare for the present by studying the past, and begin by protecting your mind.
$QQQ $SPY
First, let me say, I'm not a Trump fan... I'm a fan of doing what's best for the country with a long-term horizon in mind.
There are those who argue that we no longer need a manufacturing base in our economy—that it's an outdated sector, and we can comfortably rely on technology and emerging industries to drive growth. But the real question is: Do we want to stake our entire economic future on an undiversified economy?
In my mind, the answer, much like with investing, is no.
Just as a prudent investor wouldn't put all their capital into one or two stocks, a healthy economy shouldn't be overly dependent on a narrow list of industries. Diversification is essential, not just in portfolios but in national economic strategy.
A shift toward a narrowly concentrated economy—one heavily reliant on tech—leaves us vulnerable. We've seen how this plays out: in the dot-com crash of 2000, when overexposure to specific sectors magnified the damage and led to a drawn-out bear market and long-lasting carnage.
A robust manufacturing base provides balance, resilience, and stability. Abandoning it completely risks creating an economy that is dynamic—but dangerously fragile. AI provides opportunities, but it is also accelerating the trajectory of narrowly based structure and adding to the risks.
Do we really want everything to be "cyber" and virtual? Because that's the direction we are going, and fast!
Tough decisions are rarely celebrated in real time—especially in the political arena. They're often unpopular, uncomfortable, and met with skepticism. It's only in hindsight, after they succeed, that they’re recognized as bold or necessary.
It's easy to be a pessimist in the face of tough decisions, and it is even easier to cling to the status quo. But real, meaningful change demands time, discomfort, and above all, courage.
The tariffs President Trump is implementing aim to address several structural challenges—chief among them, revitalizing America’s manufacturing base. Agree or disagree with the policy or how it's being implemented, it stands as one of the most decisive and courageous economic moves made by a U.S. President in modern history. And for the sake of our country, I hope he is successful.
Your comments are welcome. Try to keep them intelligent.