Ryan

Communication Coach. Navigating to health and wholeness again. Former financial risk manager. #Bitcoin gives me hope.

[Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸 @mtgreenee]

Is it true that American two time UFC Champion, @SStricklandMMA is banned from attending the WH UFC event?
But Netanyahu, PM of a foreign country Israel, is attending?

[Ryan @ryan_direct]

@SStricklandMMA following ✅

[Ryan @ryan_direct]

@RaminNasibov Baseball Stars

[Ryan @ryan_direct]

@edgaralandough Any books on fatherhood you recommend ?

[Saifedean Ammous @saifedean]

@chrismartenson They can seize crypto. They can't seize bitcoin. Understand the difference!

[Ryan @ryan_direct]

@Riffentime @prospertarian @DrJackKruse 😂

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

I’m sick of it. The Bitcoin gloom and disappointment. Don’t you see what is underway?

When you close your eyes, there’s one number you should see in your mind: $500T of fiat assets.

That’s how much global asset value is sitting in Bonds (fixed income) & Money (M2 fiat currency). Why does that matter?

Because that giant reservoir of ~½ the world’s asset value contains the potential energy necessary to power hyperbitcoinization.

This is what Saylor sees.

But do you see it yet?

Consider Hoover Dam. The reservoir behind it contains 12 TWh of usable hydroelectric energy – it just looks like one big lake, calm and placid. But if you stick a pipe through that damn and put a turbine generator in the middle of it and let the water run through it… you can generate enough energy to power the city of Las Vegas for 5 years.

That’s potential energy. Stored, untapped power. And by removing the barrier for the water to flow towards a lower energy state, you can harness the pent up power of the reservoir.

This same mental model works for capital.

A high Sharpe ratio is the financial analogue of a low-energy equilibrium state. Capital flows downhill, always seeking lower risk per unit of return.

(Yes, I know everyone thinks about it as “highest return per unit of risk”, but this is the equivalent and helps understand the physical metaphor)

Do you see it yet?

Think about all the capital parked in fixed income instruments or money market funds. All of this capital is parked there because it has historically provided an acceptable trade-off of modest nominal returns for minimal risk.

The entire premise of fixed income is “here’s a way to park cash in low-risk instruments that will generate a positive return slightly greater than inflation.” Adjacent to this asset category is “cash and cash equivalents” where the value proposition is somewhat smaller returns in exchange for even less risk.

And over the decades, a steady stream of capital has found its way into these asset buckets that promise low risk and modest nominal returns via future fiat cashflows.

These buckets have become a giant fiat reservoir, brimming with nearly $500T of capital.

Do you see it yet?

Along comes Strategy. @saylor realizes that much of this $500T of capital would be better off if it flowed into Bitcoin. But Saylor also recognizes that this reservoir of capital is inherently constrained. Boxed in by convention, investment mandates, risk management, volatility aversion, etc.

It won’t flow to Bitcoin on its own. It can’t – it’s walled off, dammed up.

Strategy engineers a solution. Creates a product to meet that capital where it’s at. The $500T fiat asset reservoir wants low risk, low volatility, fiat cash flows. Strategy designs preferred equity instruments that solve for these constraints, while Strategy uses the fiat capital proceeds to buy Bitcoin (which it believes will appreciate at 29% CAGR for the next 20 years).

In exchange for capital today, STRC offers 11.5% annual returns with volatility asymptotically approaching 0. The Sharpe ratio is off the charts. It breaks everything in tradfi portfolio allocation. At first glance, it seems impossible. But it works because it’s not powered by risk-taking layered on top of fiat inflation; it’s powered by the ongoing monetization of a superior monetary asset whose endogenous properties ensure its appreciation when valued in fiat currency units over time.

Saylor terms this kind of Bitcoin-powered fixed income offering “Digital Credit.”

When a commodity flows from a high-energy state to a low-energy state, it releases energy. In the case of Hoover Dam, that energy can be used to power a hydroelectric turbine. In the case of Bitcoin treasury companies with Digital Credit offerings, that energy can be used to power shareholder returns for common equity holders. This can happen in every major capital market in the world.

Do you see it yet?

Strategy has stuck a pipe through the dam. A conduit through which capital can flow out of the Fiat Asset Reservoir and towards a low-energy equilibrium state. Digital Credit offerings (e.g., STRC, SATA, and others) create that value proposition.

And what’s the Total Addressable Market (TAM)? All $500T of fiat assets in the reservoir.

The recent SpaceX IPO Prospectus recently made a splash by claiming the company had a combined $28.5T TAM, proclaiming that this was the “largest TAM in human history.”

But my essay from 2023 titled “Bitcoin’s Full Potential Valuation” already articulated how Bitcoin’s TAM is all value itself, above and beyond the usual lens of annual economic activity across industries. Saylor read it, adopted it for his presentations, and built on it with the Bitcoin24 valuation model.

The SpaceX Prospectus is wrong. Bitcoin has the largest TAM in human history.

And Digital Credit has the second largest TAM in human history – the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit offerings will redirect some % of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir into Bitcoin. This will happen because the value proposition of Digital Credit offerings is higher Sharpe than anything I am aware of in the entire $500T reservoir, inflation-adjusted.

Think of it as the Second Law of Capital Dynamics: capital flows toward assets offering superior risk-adjusted returns.

If Digital Credit ingests 1% over the coming decades, that’s $5T. It seems unreasonably pessimistic to think that only 1% of the $500T Fiat Asset Reservoir would be interested in vastly better returns with a similar (or better) risk profile.

Let’s say Digital Credit appeals to a (still-conservative) 10% of the $500T fiat asset reservoir, that’s $50T.

Bitcoin is currently a $1.5T asset.

Do you see it yet?

Digital Credit may direct a torrent of $50T of capital into Bitcoin over the coming decades. All of it bidding for a finite supply of Bitcoin.

The scale of that inflow would likely drive Bitcoin’s valuation to $10m/BTC, or ~$200T total.

Digital Credit is the plumbing of hyperbitcoinization.

This is how it happens – you’re watching the early stages of Bitcoin’s monetization megatrend.

The question is: do you see it? Or will it have to play out first?

[Ryan @ryan_direct]

@NeilJacobs End like what ? What’s happening to shitcoins

[Ryan @ryan_direct]

@HouseLyndseyRN @evanfgeorge @KevinMcCairnPhD @Christine00k @shonyan Hi Lyndsey what are the steps to get the treatment in Japan ? Who would I contact first ? Thanks so much

[Ken from KY-04 @MassieNation19]

This should make you sick as an American .

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

@WSJ @WSJFreeEx @WSJopinion @MattHennessey It’s public record, not a secret, that the Republican Jewish Coalition, AIPAC, and a Miriam Adelson funded superPAC spent tens of millions of dollars against me to buy this Congressional seat in Kentucky.

[Sense Receptor @SenseReceptor]

TIM DILLON on the Thomas Massie election:

"I don't know how you run a country where people can just dump $32 million into a race"

"What it's showing you is that if you spend enough money, you can just create any reality you want"

"No one knows who the hell the other guy is"

"This guy [Massie] who's like, 'Release the Epstein Files. Hold people accountable. Prosecute pedophiles. Get out of foreign wars,' that guy loses to a guy who's like, 'Let's cover up the Epstein Files, let's not prosecute pedophiles, let's go to war, with your kids'"

"You would think just platform to platform that's a tough sell"

"[Gallrein] was just handpicked. Came out of nowhere"

"[He] was like, we gotta get kids back into the military. We gotta get them to Iran. Now. Now, you would think that's probably not a super popular idea—let's bring back the draft"

"However, if you spend enough money in American politics, you can create any reality you want"

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

How can people be expected to have faith in Trump if he won’t release the Epstein files?

[Thomas Massie for Congress @MassieforKY]

@tedcruz You wish I hadn’t pointed out that 95+% of my opponent’s funding came from the Israeli lobby, and millions of that came from a woman who has Israeli citizenship and served in the IDF?

Sorry for your feels Ted.

[Ryan @ryan_direct]

@zerohedge oh fuck off. and fuck the white house. bitcoin doesnt need that corrupt scum.

[Joe Kent @joekent16jan19]

God bless Thomas Massie.

He walks out of this with his honor intact. He’s a patriot & kept his integrity.

As long as the voters give their votes to whoever can run the most ads we will have politicians who are purchased by foreign governments & corporate interests.

[Shawn Ryan @ShawnRyan762]

$32 million dollars and an entire administration mobilized to destroy one congressman.
His crime?
Demanding answers about Epstein class abuse networks, and refusing to let child predators hide behind political cover.
If that level of firepower doesn't tell you who's being protected, nothing will.
Go Massie!

[Ryan @ryan_direct]

@JayTC53 Ed is a b*tch and wont even debate Massie. what a joke.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

@LauraLoomer Massie is the only Congressional Republicans who is not trash. The rest are RINOs, including Trump.