@RandyWKirk1 My prediction is that SpaceX will spend every penny they make on data centers that year on more data centers so depending on how you count it... no profit
@LimitingThe I think it's pretty fair (and I'm grabbing a few shares) but it's probably going to dip at some point in the next year so I'll grab some more shares then. Not selling any Tesla to buy
On the remarkable return on capital potential for Starlink on Starship.
Including customer acquisition cost, ground station capex, and an expendable top stage, we think SpaceX should be able to launch its 10th commercial starship rocket for ~$500m.
The bandwidth it launches could yield $1.2 billion in revenue annually for as long as the satellites are in orbit. 13x cash on cash return.
For a time (100 launches or so) cash requirements per kg (and per tbps) of launch should roughly keep pace with the revenue decay in monetizing incremental orbital comms throughput. Basically, their per launch cost decline, driven by rocket upsizing, satellite manufacturing efficiency and full re-useability, should out-compete declining ARPU (or at least keep pace).
Net, very crudely, it works to the company being able to deploy $50b in capital building satellites, launching rockets and acquiring customers at a ~13x cash on cash return over a few years.
This is a business without precedent.
@JOBhakdi I'm not saying the move would be logical just that it would be an entry point. But yes, the Florida launch pads are not far from completion and within 2 years there will be 5+ starship launch pads and 2 production facilities
@JOBhakdi That's the way I'm playing it, also there is likely going to be an event similar to what Blue origin just went through today that will hammer the stock and create a good entry
@CuriousPejjy What about all the index inclusions? While I think there will be buying opportunities I think the big moves won't happen and the chart is cope