🇨🇦 Canada’s Labor Force Survey is due tomorrow, with Employment Change forecast at 6.3K.
Recent reports have swung sharply. Markets mostly expect the BoC to hold in October, but the jobs data could shift rate expectations and stir CAD.
JAPAN IS BURNING ITS FOREIGN RESERVES TO ACHIEVE NOTHING.
In September 2026, Japan's foreign reserves dropped to $1.17 Trillion, its lowest level in 15 years.
Since March 2026, foreign reserves have been down over $230 billion, and this is being used for one purpose.
"Strengthen the yen."
But the USD/JPY is still recovering from every dip and heading higher.
At the same time, the Fed has inclined towards being hawkish, which is pushing DXY up and resulting in more yen weakness.
The BOJ has tried almost everything, from rate hikes to selling foreign reserves to even coordinating with the Treasury to strengthen the yen, but nothing is working in its favour.
💥 Ojo con esto: Encontrar SmallCaps de calidad es muy difícil, te dejo este filtro para que comiences con está lista. Apenas son 3.
1. Market Cap: $300 millones a $2 billones
2. ROIC > ...
🚨 BREAKING: ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH!!
🇨🇳 OVER ¥450,000,000,000.00 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET IN JUST 10 MINUTES!
CHINA IS NOW AGGRESSIVELY DUMPING U.S. TREASURIES IN A DESPERATE ATTEMPT TO STOP THE COLLAPSE.
THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD NEWS FOR GLOBAL MARKETS…
🚨 FED OFFICIALS PROJECTS ONE MORE RATE HIKE THIS YEAR
FOMC minutes from the September meeting just dropped
Officials believe another rate hike will likely be needed before the end of 2026
Almost all of them see risks that inflation could speed up again
And there is a new reason on the list: AI
The AI investment boom could push demand above what the economy can supply
When demand runs ahead of supply, prices go up
This comes after FED already hiked to 3.75%-4.00% in September, its first hike in 3 years
Markets now price over 80% odds of another hike by December
But this meeting happened before last week's jobs report, which showed only 29K jobs and unemployment at 4.2%
So the Fed is hawkish on paper, while the economy is cooling in real time
Next week's CPI decides where market goes next
Subasta del Tesoro con demanda muy fuerte, pero al 5,3%. El mercado compra con ganas; el problema es que el Tesoro tiene que pagar ese 5,3%… Me la esperaba fuerte: con estos tipos, la convexidad y el cupón juegan a favor del tenedor de bonos.
🚨 Japan’s Own Paper Nikkei Just Admitted: The Yen Carry Trade Is Unwinding and Volatility Won’t Stop
Japan’s own financial paper, Nikkei, just flagged it in black and white:
The massive yen carry trade is starting to come apart. The wild swings aren’t calming down. The people sitting on those positions are suddenly waking up to how fast one bad move can wipe them out.
This isn’t some random journal on the Japanese Wall Street. This is Nikkei.
And it lines up with what @yutokanzakireal revealed: The Bank of Japan has made the call to bring the Japanese wealth back to homeland by any means necessary.
Japan has already dumped $87 Billion worth of their U.S. Treasury holdings despite Scott Bessent‘s interventions and overseeing BoJ operations.
They want Japanese money brought back home. They’re done letting it sit overseas while the currency gets punished.
Every attempt to paper over it failed. The threats, the interventions, the coordinated statements from the U.S. and Treasury, none of it stopped the trade from getting bigger.
Scott Bessent overtook BoJ operations, called himself the house, dared traders to short the yen and now he says that he cannot control the bond market.
Now the bond market is doing whatever it wants and he’s reduced to telling people to slow down before it snaps.
Even the BoJ governor admitted that the hike cycle is not done whether the economy likes it or not.
When the officials who were supposed to keep this contained start sounding nervous, and Japan’s own paper starts describing the retreat, the exit door is already getting smaller.
Just one Tokyo fund broke the French debt market by selling their holdings to ZERO.
Imagine what happens when BoJ indeed dumps their $1.2 Trillion U.S. Treasury Holdings.
The DXY is rallying because currently the market thinks the EUR is sh*ttier than the USD, and they forgot about the crappy JPY. Central banks are putting in all nighters.
🚨 FED HIKE ODDS JUST CRASHED FROM 70% TO 19.4% IN ONE WEEK. HERE IS WHAT CHANGED.
A week ago the market priced an October hike at around 70%. Now it is 19.4%.
What killed it:
→ NY Fed President Williams said there is no need for urgency and the Fed has time to gather more information
→ Williams also said only one more hike may be needed this year, and late this year at that
→ Consumer confidence collapsed to 81.9 vs 89.2 expected, and JOLTS job openings missed
→ Core PCE came in at 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
→ Payrolls printed 29K, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and August was revised down to 133K
→ Wage growth was just 0.1% on the month
→ ISM Services missed at 54.9 vs 55.7 expected
→ Vice Chair Jefferson said the committee may need more time to reach its own judgment
But do not celebrate yet:
→ A hike before year end is still around 84% priced in
→ The Fed is delaying the next hike, not cancelling it
And here is the strangest part:
→ The 10Y touched 5.35%, the highest since 2002
→ The 30Y hit about 5.70%, a 24 year high
Hike odds collapsed. Long yields did not follow. When the Fed turns dovish and yields still go up, the problem is not the Fed.
FOMC Minutes drop Wednesday at 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET). Watch how much appetite is left for more hikes.
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#EURUSD COT
COT (week to 29 Sep): large specs net short ~63k euro futures, shorts up ~11k. Leveraged funds also added to shorts.
Spec positioning is clearly bearish EURUSD. Asset managers still long, but that long is relatively small.
Sentiment, not a signal — crowded shorts can squeeze if the dollar stalls.
🚨 New day, new high for US bond yields.
US20Y and US30Y just hit fresh 24-year highs.
US20Y hits 5.737% and US30Y hits 5.695%.
The bond market is now forcing the Fed to be more hawkish.
Scott Bessent last month: "I am the house now... you can bet against me if you want."
US bond yields since then:
10-year: up 49.7 bps
20-year: up 44.0 bps
30-year: up 42.5 bps
Scott Bessent, this month: "I do not control the bond market."
@Romerogallet@ColombiaOscura@Delta Se vulnera la privacidad cuando se graba en zonas donde legalmente si hay privacidad como un baño, la cabina de una avión es un lugar público, grabar en lugares públicos no es invadir la privacidad de nadie, además que está grabando es el procedimiento, no hable por hablar mijo