Brendon Seeto

Systems. Markets. Behaviour

[prïor @earlyswell]

Aspire grew revenue 1,772% since 2021. it showed up on an FT list this week, not a single headline, just a row in a spreadsheet somewhere. an island smaller than your average US county keeps doing this.

[Mark Zandi @Markzandi]

The raft of economic data released last week isn’t sending off red flares, but it is sending off yellow ones. No red flares because real #GDP is still growing at a 2% pace, with AI and corporate tax cuts powering business investment. But yellow flares because consumers struggle to maintain their spending. Adding to the concern is the fall in real disposable income — the fodder for future spending — which rarely happens outside recessions. And the saving rate is seldom lower. With consumers accounting for over two-thirds of GDP, and business investment less than one-seventh, those yellow flares are getting brighter.

[S&P Global PMI™ @SPGlobalPMI]

Flash US PMI data shows faster growth in private sector output in June, as the index rose to a five-month high of 52.2 (May: 51.5). However, the rate of increase remained weaker than at the start of the year.

Read more: https://t.co/Hr48LCQi7q

[FUTUREIQ @FutureIQ2]

The global middle class is shifting east.

By 2030, Asia will hold 65% of the world’s middle-class population.

The companies that don’t have an Asia strategy today are writing their own irrelevance.

Most Western businesses are still designing for an audience that is becoming a minority.

#asia #wealth

[Yoshik @AskYoshik]

The AI numbers are starting to look very ugly.

Even under "best case" assumptions, FT's own data shows Microsoft AI ROI at -9%, Google at -15%, Meta at -28%, Oracle at -35%. Only Amazon barely comes out positive.

This is exactly why I keep comparing this to the dot-com era. Incredible technology does not automatically mean sustainable economics. The internet survived. Most internet companies didn't.

Right now hyperscalers are spending trillions hoping future demand catches up to present capex. That's not certainty. That's a leveraged bet.

[a16z @a16z]

Mounting evidence of productivity lift across high-AI industries

Charts of the Week: https://t.co/nVVf3gIw3U

[Paul Graham @paulg]

Solution: New companies.

[Mark Zandi @Markzandi]

The economy is growing, but it is fragile growth. Looking through the vagaries of the quarterly data, real GDP is growing at a 2% pace. Growth, yes, but less than the economy’s potential growth rate, and not sufficient to support any meaningful job growth. Unemployment is still low, but it is steadily drifting higher, and the labor force participation rate is falling. Of course, this is not sustainable.

[Lisa Enckell @enckelli]

People in Singapore are using Claude. A lot.

[S&P Global @SPGlobal]

From @EnergySPG: Global food prices rose for the second consecutive month in March, with energy-driven cost pressures linked to the escalating Middle East conflict feeding through into vegetable oil and sugar markets, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization April 3.

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 128.5 points in March, up 2.4% month over month, as all major commodity groups, including cereals, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and sugar, posted gains.

This marked its highest level since December. The index was also 1% higher year over year, though still nearly 20% below its March 2022 peak.

Get more insights: https://t.co/MTqhmq56DX

[Brendon Seeto @seeto360]

@wisdomXplorer Not dumb.. but it’s lowering the cost of us skipping the hard parts. Over time it’ll show up in how we - reason especially when the answer isn’t obvious.

[Brendon Seeto @seeto360]

@chamath Think you’re directionally right but a little early.

Much of SaaS today is scaffolding around human decisions. Parts of it will compress if that shifts but the underlying systems won’t disappear.

Q is more where the control moves.

[Brendon Seeto @seeto360]

@FundamentEdge more info has never killed alpha (Excel, BBG, alt data all proved that)

it just shifts. today’s players (quants, indexers, multis) create new edges, esp if you can take a bit more duration

AI mainly removes the grunt work so you can focus on judgment…edge is still human tbh

[Zach Coelius @zachcoelius]

China’s solar manufacturing overbuild suddenly looks genius.

[The Icahnist @TheIcahnist]

Private credit exploded over the past decade:

[Brendon Seeto @seeto360]

@toddsaunders Great take, maybe a bit overcooked.

Software’s cheaper to build, sure. But that was never the real moat - getting customers and trust still is.

Lower barriers just mean more people having a crack, not more winners. SaaS is just getting way more competitive.

[Brendon Seeto @seeto360]

@SJosephBurns 💯

[Brendon Seeto @seeto360]

@exec_sum Interesting move

[Brendon Seeto @seeto360]

@PDChina Saw this firsthand in China a few years ago - especially with BYD.

Even then, there was a view they could go from ~5% to ~40% share in Australia by 2030.

Not just innovation - scale + speed.

Adoption will be driven by price, infrastructure, and trust over time.

[Brendon Seeto @seeto360]

@craigzLiszt yes mate.. 聪明的!