BB

Professional Nomad - work in Aust- live in Asia (stuck in Aust since 2/2020)

[BB @sombkk1]

@ProfSteveKeen

[BowTiedStocks @bowtiedstocks]

If people had an eye to history and the great Melbourne land bubble of the 1890s they’d have known that this outcome was not only very possible but actually locked in 👍👍

[Damon Zumbroegel @DamonZumbroegel]

Rammed Earth Post and Beam :
The high Himalayas and building with modern techniques and old knowledge. Local materials and imported modern. Blending the old and the new. This is a good way.

#architecture #Nepal #rammedearth

[BB @sombkk1]

Agree - more effort to set up - but lower brokerage (in Thailand anyway)

[Bonsai Prism⛩️ @BonsaiPrism]

@MikeFritzell If you mean Retail investors (non-Institutional), don’t bother with IB. Better to go with locally established brokerages in EMs

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Wild.

US and China’s combined money supply is surging almost as fast as it did during the Covid stimulus madness.

That is a 10% increase in just 12 months!

Let that sink in.

https://t.co/yijFtMxLWq

[Tim Staermose - Global Value Hunter @globalvaluehunt]

There is some serious peacocking going on outside my kitchen window!

[BB @sombkk1]

@globalvaluehunt Great results

[Tim Staermose - Global Value Hunter @globalvaluehunt]

Today marks 6 years since I began deploying capital in African equity markets for African Lions Fund, having uprooted my family from our home in Indonesia and moved full time to Dar Es Salaam. We began with US$3.88mn. Today, we manage over US$106mn, having delivered 28.6% compound annual returns (in USD), after all fees and expenses. It has been a smashing success.

[BB @sombkk1]

@cjoye

[David Bird (ASX Trader) B.Ed, CFTe @ASX__Trader]

UNEMPLOYMENT JUMPED TO 4.6% & IT'S LIKELY GOING MUCH HIGHER

Five days ago, the ABS reported that Australia's unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%.

And this is something I've been talking about for a long time.

Rising unemployment.

Stubborn inflation.

Slowing economic growth.

Put those ingredients together and you start moving towards something we haven't seriously dealt with since the 1970s:

STAGFLATION.

So why have I been expecting this?

Look at this chart.

We're zoomed right out onto three-monthly candles, because sometimes you need to stop worrying about the daily noise and look at the bigger economic cycle.

Pay attention to the MACD.

There have only been a handful of major bullish crosses like this over the period I'm showing. (Purple boxes)

1990, around the "recession we had to have."

The GFC.

COVID.

And now.

Each previous signal appeared around a major deterioration in economic conditions.

COVID was obviously different. Governments and central banks responded with extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the economy rebounded incredibly quickly. But that response also came with consequences, including the inflation problem that followed.

Now we're seeing unemployment rising again while inflation remains elevated and economic growth is relatively subdued.

That combination is what I'm watching.

I'm not saying a MACD cross magically causes a recession. It doesn't.

The point is that markets and economic data often start flashing warning signs before the story becomes obvious in the headlines.

And while Australia isn't technically in a GDP recession based on the latest numbers, I believe the underlying conditions are becoming increasingly recessionary.

The headlines are normally the last place you'll see it.

The charts usually start talking first.

We're likely already in a recession the headlines just haven't arrived yet!

[Porter Stansberry @porterstansb]

The real threat from A.I. isn’t that it is going to kill us all.

The real A.I. threat is that it's truth seeking and our entire economy runs on fraud.

Sounds like a big, nonsense claim. So, let me show you a concrete example. The Iran war has restricted Gulf oil exports and depleted crude inventories. Extend these supply disruptions and diesel approaches $16 next year. The implied CPI inflation rate with diesel at those prices is around 8%. (Diesel and CPI are tightly correlated.)

What will that do to interest rates? Under that scenario CPI would reach ~ 7%. The corresponding 10-year Treasury yield would be ~8-10%. Why does that matter? Pay close attention.

Bank of America bought $620 billion of government-backed, long-dated securities during 2020–2021. This was a substantial amount of the total COVID funding. The current unrealized losses on these investments is well over $100 billion. But that’s only the current losses.

If rates continue to rise, these losses will grow by another ~$100 billion, making depositors fear for the bank’s solvency.

The bank will face two existential threats at the same time: unrecognized losses on its bond investments plus depositors fleeing in pursuit of higher checking account interest rates.

Why? Because BoA’s Advantage Plus checking pays nothing!

A.I. will make that business proposition completely untenable. Public offers AI-agent tools that can follow customer instructions to move cash between eligible accounts, automatically.

Where to move your cash?

Wealthfront offers automated transfers of excess checking balances and is offering 4.20% interest rates. Openbank is likewise offering checking accounts with 4.15% interest rates.

Why won’t Bank of America simply match the competition? Because it made so many terrible investments during COVID that it can’t possibly afford to pay those kinds of rates. Bank of America’s TOTAL investment portfolio yielded 2.74% (annualized) in the second quarter of 2026. That’s what it is earning on its entire $880 billion investment portfolio.

It is a dead man walking.

Politicians already see the danger. Representative Bill Foster warned that AI could accelerate bank runs from hours to seconds.

What the politicians won’t tell you: government policy created this vulnerability. I expect politicians to blame AI rather than accept responsibility for their wars, monetary policies, and banking rules.

Get your money out of Bank of America while you still can.

And that window is now weeks (or days), not months.

[Prof. Denim 𓅊 @DenimFarmer]

Working thread of published research on COVID 19. Every claim links to a real study. Published, peer-reviewed research from journals like Nature, The Lancet, BMJ, and Nature Medicine. Not speculation, this is what the mainstream science says. Please take it seriously.

[BB @sombkk1]

@VladGrabarskyy @RealRickRule Good interview! And intelligent questioning

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Australia really is uniquely in trouble when it comes to a potential global diesel shortage.

Chart: Sky UK

[Dr Jo Ball @DrJEBall]

A #Roman glass bowl, in a beautiful cobalt blue with an irregular swirling white pattern. It looks amazing - especislly given that it is nearly 2000 years old! #Archaeology

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

If you had told me in the 1970s that the 2020s would follow the exact inflationary playbook, I would have told you that you were blind to reality.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Books shall be written✍️, lessons to be taught, history to be repeated. For they have sown the wind, and now we must reap the whirlwind.

Have a great weekend.

Yours truly
The great Martis.✨

[BB @sombkk1]

@asxpeasant Unbalanced. Next to Super, market cap ASX , resi property is 4X GDP. Unbalanced, and likely source instability with possible further increases interest rates & inflation from the middle east oil crisis

[BB @sombkk1]

@Frances__Daily I should send the one for the townhouses - 3X larger!!

[BB @sombkk1]

Melbourne 2026. Was this normal in the past anywhere in Australia? The abnormal has been normalised

[BB @sombkk1]

@Frances__Daily Yeah but normalised here for ages

[BB @sombkk1]

@Frances__Daily It’s a cage to stop people stealing the water meter & copper piping with it

[BB @sombkk1]

The truth hurts

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Australia is in the firing line and is likely heading toward a significant downturn and a lengthy stagflationary recession.⚠️

The recent numbers are concerning. Company insolvencies have hit record highs.
The larger problem is that the unemployment rate has started to rise.

Add to that the fact that Australia has the second-highest household debt to GDP ratio in the world, with mortgage rates looking set to rocket higher. That is a perfect storm.

Reckless RBA and government policy, combined with a public appetite for heavy debt, is becoming a damaging mix.

The next decade does not look pretty and “a decade” may be conservative.
This is a global issue, not an isolated one.

Hope this helps.

Yours truly,
The Great Martis✨