Stephen John Senn

CH & UK stats imposter, skier & Munroist: disappointing, humourless, confusing or disingenuous. DOI

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

Your inability to think statistically is what makes you lurch from unjustified premise to illogical conclusion via irrelevant data.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@duolingo you won’t let me leave the screen I did not ask you to present me until I commit to a streak with a friend. I am a paying customer. Stop bullying me.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

Farewell, Adieu
I'm off where skies are blue
I hope to see you too

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@EE Replacing 250 by 150 also does not work.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@EE I am in Switzerland, I can't log on because the passcodes you claim you have sent me aren't getting through and the number you have given me to call you doesn't work. What do you suggest?

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@EE Thanks. I will try it. Your welcome to Switzerland message gave me the same number but ending 250 not 150.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@AdanBecerraPhD @RWJE_BA @5_utr @f2harrell It’s kind of difficult to explain to a community that a) is only interested in point estimates because b) what only matters is what happens when “n” goes to infinity but c) can’t explain what “n” is.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@AvantiWestCoast any chance you could nudge your ticket inspector on the train that was due to arrive at Edinburgh at 22:21 but was delayed at Wolverhampton to give the passengers an update? Just a thought.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@FamedCelebrity @Forms_Respecter His statue is not far from where I live and his hat is frequently more colourful https://t.co/fQudjkssl6

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@yudapearl @f2harrell My opinion is that a fusion of causal inference and statistics would be very powerful. DAGs as currently used don’t seem to tell us how to analyse complex experiments. Some of the causal work on observational data is very interesting.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@soboleffspaces @yudapearl I like de Finetti “ The mathematician abstracts from reality, falls in love with the abstraction and then blamed reality for not conforming to it” (From memory.)

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@ProfHayward @elmir1omerovic @kaulcsmc @f2harrell @yudapearl @drjohnm @GreggWStone However, the recent study from Exeter published in the Lancet shows how modelling of observational data might improve use of drugs for type 2 diabetes already studied in RCTs. https://t.co/knNRrk6wAp

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@ProfHayward @elmir1omerovic @kaulcsmc @f2harrell @yudapearl @drjohnm @GreggWStone Indeed. We use RCTs to decide whether OSs will become possibles. An OS can collect useful info on rare side effects an RCT cannot but will require care and tricks to interpret. https://t.co/JWFIxuufUK

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@yudapearl @RWJE_BA “The reason is that the individual effects... are suspect of contamination by selection bias and placebo effects”
How do you deal with this problem in your observational studies?

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@soboleffspaces @yudapearl Of course, I also expect that potato farmers understand about clusters so I wonder when you are going to accept my challenge to explain them to your causal guru.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@soboleffspaces @yudapearl Respect! Anyone whose family has a potato connection is clearly an expert at finding roots.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@FamedCelebrity It's always interesting to learn what moralists think is acceptable behaviour by politicians.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@yudapearl @RWJE_BA Explain to me where you did take into account the study effect for your observational data.
Please clarify where the self-designated precise answer as regards this may be found.
All I see is that you implicitly assume it is zero.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@elonmusk I agree. If he was a puppet his nose would be enormous.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@DrDavidJeffery Does this count Irish as British?

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@yudapearl @RWJE_BA A Mueller and Pearl note, "the individual effects, P(yt) and P(yc), are suspect of contamination by selection bias and placebo effects." What they don't explain is how, if this is a problem that RCTs have to face, observational studies somehow escape.

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@yudapearl @RWJE_BA 2/2) Modern work on using historical data has not ignored study effects but tried to find ways of estimating them. See, for example, https://t.co/z457vMSrlg

[Stephen John Senn @stephensenn]

@soboleffspaces @yudapearl Indeed. But this reminds me of De Finetti's advice to petroleum exploration CEOs who did not like probabilistic forecasts: "don't drill dry wells".
"Only grow big potatoes," is very useful advice but for one snag.