Steve Pacinelli

A curious connector of dots.

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@charliejhills Reality

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

This morning was one of those moments I won’t forget.

My daughter Sophia and I built a website together from scratch using @ManusAI. Just an idea → a few prompts → and suddenly we had something real on the screen.

Are the prices of her art ridiculous? Absolutely 😂 But that wasn’t the point.

The magic was watching her light up during the creative process - naming things, tweaking ideas, etc. It was easy to turn curiosity into creation.

And Sophia… you might have just built your first company before middle school even though I think we priced ourselves out of the market. 😂

https://t.co/eZyrZo3Mlw

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@NoLimitGains Guide

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@trendingbitcoin Except people will stop using Bitcoin as the standard of measurement and it will be 10,000,000 Sats.

[Coooop (Not a Safety) @Cooper_DeJawn33]

Friendly reminder: 😁

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@gordongekko This is from 2017 FYI

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@rajatsoni Would love to hear your thoughts on this take, @rajatsoni https://t.co/3ESIre8vHq

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@rajatsoni Love your content, Rajat! What do you think of this take about self custody and the potential que of something happened? https://t.co/1kc84P2Dwn

[Justin Bons @Justin_Bons]

WARNING: BTC is vulnerable to a bank run! ⚠️

If a panic sets in; the vast majority of 33M on-chain users will not be able to exit

The queue would in fact be 1.82 months long!

Potentially even triggering a death spiral, annihilating investors; BTC's code & math do not lie: 🧵

All of these numbers can be independently verified, by looking at the BTC source code on your own full node!

The Math: 🎓

The figure for on-chain BTC holders was taken from @glassnode's analysis on March 2023

The TPS calculation is based on Max Theoretical TPS: (Block size (1.66MB)/Transaction size (374B)) / Block time (10M) = TPS (7.75)

We use the P2PKH TX format with 2 inputs & 2 outputs, to better represent an "average user"

Even though Segwit allows for 4MB blocks this cannot all be filled with TXs, historically the largest BTC block filled with TXs was 1.66MB so we will use that number

(1740636.16/374) / 600 = 7.75 TPS (rounding down to 7 as BTC cannot execute partial TXs)

7x60 (minutes) = 420x60 (hours) = 25200x24 (Days) = 604,800x30 (Months) = 18,144,000 (Monthly TXs)

33000000 (On-chain Users) / 18,144,000 (Monthly TXs) = 1.818 (months)

The Reality: 💀

These are all extremely conservative estimates, as they assume zero network activity outside of these on-chain users exiting...

It is important to understand that the BTC network cannot actually support month-long queues, it cannot even support week-long queues

In reality, TXs would get stuck & eventually get dropped entirely (TXs drop after 3 days)

Making it entirely impossible for smaller parties to exit, as only parties paying thousands of dollars for fees will get their TXs cleared in such a scenario (fee spike), such as large custodians & banks, as the capacity is finite, no matter how much people pay

That is why self-custody over BTC is completely unsafe & we should be advising people against it!

This will also only get worse as BTC surges in popularity, as most have no idea how deeply flawed BTC really is

Death Spiral: 🌪

This type of panic would certainly also have a relationship with the price of BTC

As a price drop would lead to a drop in the hash rate, as some miners would no longer be profitable, forcing them to shut down

However, due to how the difficulty adjustment algorithm works; a 2-week readjustment period (measured in block time)

A sudden drop in hash rate can severely affect the speed & capacity of the network, if half the miners left, for instance, block time would also drop in half & the readjustment period could take up to a month!

Causing the queue to be over 3 months long, deepening the panic & causing the price to crash even more which in turn causes more miners to shut down, which would slow down the chain even more, causing the price to crash & even more miners shutting down, etc: a vicious cycle

BTC's security budget is also unsustainable & will likely run out within the decade, something I have covered in far more depth elsewhere. This means that we have a definitive timeline, as a security budget crisis is very likely to trigger the death spiral scenario I have described here, that is if it does not happen before that

L2s also offer zero solutions against this crisis from playing out, as "true BTC L2s" still require some form of interaction with the base layer in the form of an on-chain TX for self-custody

Pure Greed: 🤑

There are literally ZERO use cases that can be supported by 7 TPS, making BTC by definition purely speculative. Unable to effect any real change in the world by virtue of it literally being useless

For reference; FedWire & Chips on average do around 12 TPS (inter-bank settlement), PayPal does 200 (online payment), while VISA & Mastercard average at around 5k TPS (retail)

All while BTC's crypto competitors can exceed 10k TPS, or even 500k TPS in some cases, all without sacrificing decentralization! There is no excuse anymore for keeping the limit this low, something I have covered extensively elsewhere

Conclusion:

Mass self-custody over BTC is a lie, even worse, it is a dangerous narrative to promote! The kinder narrative would be to warn people against self-custody on BTC, at least ETH got that right within their L2 paradigm (by promoting centralized solutions)

The only way BTC can be adopted on mass is through centralized custodians & banks. So please do not pretend as if this is "freedom money". All that does is set more people up for absolute disaster when the inevitable collapse comes

To make things even more tragic, this was never the original design, intent & vision for Bitcoin, it was hijacked along the way & completely perverted from its original goals

I love Bitcoin & that is why we must speak out against the horrible monster BTC has become; the antithesis of all that Bitcoin used to stand for. As it was originally intended to be freedom money, "P2P Electronic Cash" as the Bitcoin Whitepaper so boldly stated! That is how far BTC has fallen

Everything people project onto BTC is a lie, as BTC's tech & governance do not match their claims at all

I will not tell you what alternative chains to adopt, as I am no shill, but I can with confidence warn people against BTC & if you insist on still investing in BTC do not self-custody! Personally & professionally as a crypto value investor, I would not touch BTC with a ten-foot pole, as it is clearly a toxic asset

BTC is certainly doomed to collapse, as I see no viable path for change within the necessary timelines, there is, however, still much hope left on the horizon for cryptocurrency as a whole

As Bitcoins original vision now thrives in its children instead! 🕊

[AJ Chan @mrajchan]

The biggest acquisition no one's talking about is Zillow buying @followupboss for $500M in all cash

And they've intentionally stayed under the radar despite being ahead of every trend

Bootstrapped
Profitable
Community
Vertical SaaS

Here's their 12 yr overnight success story ⬇️

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@koakley81 @gregofisch Damn! That’s impressive!!

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@samdblond Follow Up Boss - real estate CRM company that focuses on real estate teams and high-performing individuals. Team Leaders/Founders. $12k

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@dickiebush Please send the prompt

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

@Greencognito @markwschaefer @DavidSpinks @ethanbeute That’s quite the roundup, Rich! Hope you enjoy this literary adventure.

[Ethan Beute @ethanbeute]

Thanks to @jamescarbary for this nice airport pic of #HumanCentered #Communication.

In it: 13 experts teach #humanconnection across the #digitaldivide.

📙Free, digital copy: https://t.co/uG0j9zCzKr

📙Hardcover: https://t.co/QYqXWezE2r

📙Bulk: https://t.co/jTjtGkfvd3

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

Love it. It’s not surprising though.

[NBA Slime @TerryFranconia]

Eagles fan at Lambeau Field cheering on the Packers #FlyEaglesFly

[Ethan Beute @ethanbeute]

In #HumanCentered #Communication, you get frameworks, strategies, and tactics to build human connection across the digital divide.

Next Wed, @stevepacinelli and I share 10 top tactics that you can use same day.

Learn more and sign up (free):
https://t.co/LEgLbmTRH2

[Shep Hyken @Hyken]

How do you turn repeat customers into loyal customers?

I discuss what you can do now to ensure your customers come back to do business with you & not your competitors on The Customer Experience Podcast with @stevepacinelli & @ethanbeute .
https://t.co/u0CA4cwN1X #customerloyalty

[BetMGM 🦁 @BetMGM]

BREAKING:

Nets announce Ben Simmons is questionable for game 1 of the 2022-2023 season.

[Steve Pacinelli @stevepacinelli]

This week I joined @randyfrisch on #TheMarketersJourney podcast to discuss my journey to CMO, the importance of great communication and how to be a better advocate for your brand. Listen to the episode here: https://t.co/AqZob0b3ci

[StatMuse @statmuse]

Career threes as a Sixer:

5 — James Harden in 1 game
5 — Ben Simmons