StoicValueCapital

Private investment fund. Not investment advice.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@ExtrapolationCM @BwkCapital What are the headwinds? They sell an addictive product where new entrants are barred from advertising. Has this changed? Honest question, would love to hear the opposite perspective.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

Looking at the valuations of a number of companies I follow and it looks to me like the market is expecting earnings growth to remain above average and interest rates to remain below average. 🤔

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@CaddieNetwork @TheMasters Yes. #LIVGolf players should be allowed to play in all majors. This may expose them as the weaker tour. They seem likely to get beat as their incentives to improve and compete are worse than those of #pgatour players, and their discomfort grows with 72-hole, individual events.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@OrlandoBravoTB This presumes a much higher degree of control than most managements can exercise over their business in the short-run. They can make changes at the margin, but the business model and balance sheet they have today will mostly dictate performance in the coming environment.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@elonmusk to improve decorum, discovery, and honesty on twitter, what about implementing a user rating system whereby the author of a tweet can rate any reply to their tweet, and users can filter out others with low ratings. Similar to Uber and eBay seller ratings.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@goodalexander @chamath you taking notes?!

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@RBReich Terrible logic. There are plenty of working people with great credit and plenty of “wealthy” people with poor credit. Working class does not equal poor credit.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@CharlieMunger00 @conorsen Madoff wasn't exposed until fear reigned, and we seem pretty far from that today. It will be interesting to see what falls over if fear returns. It's not crazy to think that a decade+ of loose accounting and zero rates produced something worse than #SPACs, #NFTs, and #FTX.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@robinivski Isn't it also likely a result of the buyers of the new converts shorting the stock to hedge their convert and increase their yield? Seems like sloppy execution either way. Note that their previous converts were concurrent with share repos. @John_Hempton any thoughts? $HLF

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@IndraStocks I’ve never quite understood the fraud argument here either. In the age of zero rates, crypto, nfts, etc. there are much easier ways for crooks to make a buck than trying to setup a nationally scaled used car sales and distribution platform.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@Invesquotes I'd have no problem doing that if I controlled the company. Predicting business performance is one thing. Predicting the capital allocation decisions of managements and boards is quite another.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@RBReich Twaddle. Being able to own and break things (make mistakes) independently (without a bailout) is the foundation of business evolution. The mistakes of the owners create the opportunities for the entrepreneurs. This is obviously better than some centrally planned system.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@williamgreen72 "remain imperturbably invested" may be one of the great investment sayings of all time. Obviously, you need to pick the right businesses and avoid paying unreasonable prices. But having done that, remaining imperturbably invested is a great way to live life.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@MebFaber “due diligence” is simply the process by which an investor who wants / needs to do a deal justifies the deal to himself and his committee. Think of the career risk to the VC that passed on #FTX the last 18 months. But now they they’re wrong, they can all be wrong together

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@MartinSalgado48 @scottfawcett @practicalgolf This is an excellent clarification. Everyone but a statistician (and even some of these) has a hard time thinking probabilistically. And statisticians have a hard time with psychology (intent v. observed results). You hit the nail on the head.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@F_Compounders Titan (Chernow), The First Tycoon (Stiles), Drive (Pink). Not directly about moats, but some outstanding lessons on different types of moats and how they've lasted or collapsed. Drive gives a decent framework to evaluate the impact of culture / incentives, which impact moats.

[William Green @WilliamGreen72]

Warren Buffett: "My partner Charlie says there are only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies, and leverage. Now the truth is, the first two he just added because they started with L. It’s leverage."

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

Crypto is a large, unregulated market, hidden behind a vail of tech few people understand, in which large returns seemed possible for very little effort. Why wouldn’t it be full of crooks and promoters? The surprise should be how many people were surprised by this.

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

It's totally unreasonable to believe that the intrinsic value of the NASDAQ changed by 7.4% today. #efficientmarkethypothesis

[StoicValueCapital @Stoic_Value]

@netcapgirl Anytime you hear "robust, consistent risk framework", it's already too complicated, and someone is likely to lose a lot of money unexpectedly. When it comes to financial management, what works best over time is what most people would call simple common sense.