Tanwirovich

EM sovereign debt, macro. Follows, RTs, likes = reminders. Tweets own opinion.

[Dr Andreas Krieg @andreas_krieg]

The Gulf lobby is undefeated when standing together

"Qatar’s emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, United Arab Emirates’ President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan and Pakistan’s powerful military chief all put in calls to the US leader to urge him against more attacks"
https://t.co/k08vYqyauL

[Carlos Abadi @NewSamawal]

The US secretly approved a financial and maritime arrangement between Qatar and Iran, under which billions of dollars were paid to Tehran in exchange for free passage for Qatari tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuz, three diplomatic officials now confirm.

This was a deliberate and conscious course of action by the US administration, which allowed its navy to turn a blind eye to the arrangement, in complete contradiction of its declared policy. The move was intended to ease the crisis in global energy markets and curb rising oil prices.
https://t.co/xDCmqWLT3B

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Yesterday I warned Trump was getting fleeced by Iran with a $30B deal to temporarily open the Strait of Hormuz

Today Vance confirmed it’s actually $300 BILLION if they comply with all terms

It is far worse than we thought

Catastrophic strategic defeat

[Ashok Swain @ashoswai]

Asim Munir was Pakistan’s most unpopular army chief since Yahya Khan for his role in removing Imran Khan from the power. Modi’s senseless air attacks on Pakistan in May 2025, helped Munir to gain popular support in Pakistan, as he managed to strike back forcefully with the support from China & forced Modi to accept Trump-dictated ceasefire. Overnight, he became a hero in Pakistan. In February 2026, when Trump, being tricked by Netanyahu attacked Iran and failed to get a quick victory, it gave Munir a grand opening to play the peacemaker role. He became the primary mediator, and brokered a deal between the US and Iran. Munir has now become a global statesman - Complete control of Pakistan politics, trusted by both Trump and Xi. The world hates Netanyahu and Netanyahu hates Munir the most. South Asia hates Modi and Modi hates Munir the most. The last one year has been a glorious year for Munir as well as for Pakistan!

[Bill Kristol @BillKristol]

"America lost the war...We will exit the war with none of those goals achieved, and in order to end the war, America had to submit to a host of Iranian conditions. We lost and there is no reasonable way to hide this fact."

https://t.co/664Qv5ZaYG

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

Told @AFP that:

A. the US-Iran deal amounts to nothing less than a political and security catastrophe for the State of Israel

B. Beyond leaving the nuclear question unresolved, the result of the conflict makes it unlikely that any future US president would risk renewed military action against Iran.

C. At the end of the day, Iran is becoming stronger, and Israel has no ability to influence the US president's decisions.

D. It's a very, very, very bad development for Israel, and for Netanyahu specifically, who was, "Mr. Iran," given Netanyahu's long history of antagonism with the Islamic republic.

E. "Mr Iran" is stuck with a deal that covers almost none of the issues that are important to Israel.

#ira
https://t.co/OqR0cUhJxo

[Michael Young @BeirutCalling]

While there are those lamenting the (likely temporary) ceasefire in Lebanon, because their fantasy is that Israel is actually capable of destroying Hezbollah, something much more important is taking place.

A framework to stabilize the post-Lebanese environment and address the fate of Hezbollah's weapons is being formulated by a coalition of five countries—Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Pakistan. They do not want Lebanon to enter into peace talks with Israel, precisely because this would exacerbate domestic tensions, undermine their own conditions for normalization with Israel, push Lebanon into an Israeli sphere of influence, and lead to U.S. and Israeli pressure to disarm Hezbollah by force.

This framework, which could encompass Iran if it succeeds, is a much more promising prospect than reliance on a U.S. agenda, formulated with the Israelis and their allies in Washington. Lebanon's priority is to liberate its land and allow the inhabitants of the south to return home. That is why it has to balance two things: embracing the proposal of the coalition of five, but also pursuing negotiations with Israel, which will be required to keep the U.S. on board in order to maintain pressure on Israel. Yet the objective cannot be a Lebanese peace agreement with Israel, but security guarantees and border delineation, accompanied by Lebanese, Arab, and Turkish efforts to persuade the Trump administration that this would be enough to secure Israel's northern border if the Israelis pull out and the Lebanese army is given control of previously occupied areas (the so-called pilot scheme).

Essential to this process is that the inhabitants of the south be allowed to go home. I doubt Israel would accept, but this would affirm how much it does not believe in strengthening the Lebanese state. This, in turn, should show supporters of peace negotiations what kind of peace Israel really seeks to impose on Lebanon—a peace that is a peace only in name and that would certainly violate Lebanese sovereignty.

A second thing that is highly interesting is what happens in the negotiations that will take place in the context of the framework agreement? Can Iran afford not to bring Lebanon into the negotiation, since it has worked so furiously lately to tie the Iran and Lebanon tracks? Worse, if Iran doesn't link Lebanon to its negotiations with the U.S., this will give Israel wider latitude to torpedo the agreement, as the Israelis don't want to see a new U.S.-Iran nuclear accord, given that it is unlikely to be better than the loathed JCPOA.

Yet if the Iranians do discuss Lebanon with the Americans, if they bring it into the mix, they would be doing something they've avoided doing for years, namely negotiating the fate of a key ally, Hezbollah, with the United States. This creates openings for the Americans to demand conditions of their own from the party. If the Lebanese can exploit such dynamics, it would make sense for them to push the coalition plan and widen—yes widen—the number of parties addressing Hezbollah's arms to include the coalition of five, Iran, and the United States. The myth that Lebanon can resolve the Hezbollah problem without engaging with Iran must be replaced with a more sensible formula—that disarming Hezbollah requires a regional understanding. The U.S.-Iran talks provide an opportunity to move in this direction, with the coalition of five plan as the basis for such movement.

[Robert Malley @Rob_Malley]

From @CrisisGroup statement on the US/Iran deal:

“Regardless of the memorandum’s contents, the war’s ambiguous end carries a clear lesson: wars of choice, launched based on inflated threats and wishful thinking, are far more likely to deepen than to solve the problems they purport to address.

The specific lesson regarding Iran is also difficult to escape. After years of deploying every available coercive tool, from suffocating sanctions to military force, diplomacy remains the only approach that has delivered positive results. That reality argues for taking it more seriously this time round, not less.”

https://t.co/VrJU7TN2v7

[Sky News @SkyNews]

Trump's Iran war is one of the greatest strategic blunders in US history.

Analysis from Sky's @DominicWaghorn ⬇️ https://t.co/lrwck9jgJP

[Iran in India @Iran_in_India]

Statement by the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the Agreement to End the War Between Iran and the United States
(Unofficial Translation)

In the Name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful

The noble people of Iran are hereby informed that the Islamic Republic of Iran, guided by the leadership of its martyred Leader, has consolidated its superiority over the American-Zionist enemy. Under the directives of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution (may God protect him), with the support of the Iranian people and the dedicated efforts of the fighters of Islam, and following several months of difficult and intensive negotiations, the Islamic Republic of Iran, pursuant to a resolution of the Supreme National Security Council, finalized the text of a Memorandum of Understanding concerning negotiations to end the war (the Islamabad Talks) between Iran and the United States on the evening of 14 June.

According to the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will cease immediately and permanently as of tonight. Furthermore, the naval blockade imposed against Iran will be lifted immediately and in its entirety.

The Memorandum of Understanding will be formally signed on Friday, 19 June.

Negotiations on a final agreement will commence after the implementation of the other party’s commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding.

The Islamic Republic of Iran expresses its appreciation to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the State of Qatar for their efforts in facilitating this process.

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

It appears that J.D. Vance and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will sign the agreement in Geneva on Friday.

Kazem Gharibabadi, #Iran's deputy foreign minister:

"On Friday, we will have a formal signing ceremony, and the heads of the two delegations will hold talks to determine the framework for the next stage of negotiations."

Who would have thought, just a few months ago, that we would see a Ghalibaf–Vance handshake photo? Also worth noting: both have significant domestic political ambitions in their respective countries.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Iran’s Fars says that Iran and Oman will regulate traffic in the Strait of Hormuz under the peace agreement.

[Babak Vahdad @BabakVahdad]

According to Entekhab, one of the last-minute changes to the understanding came after Qalibaf pushed back against key provisions and insisted on Iran’s red lines.

- The claim is that the U.S. originally sought a 30-day timeline for lifting the naval blockade, but Trump ultimately agreed to remove it immediately.

#Iran

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Netanyahu informed Trump that Israel will not pull IDF forces from Lebanon and does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon clause in the U.S.-Iran agreement.

- Maariv

[Iran Military Media ☫ @IRMilitaryMedia]

Martyr Larijani to a Lebanese journalist:

The ones that give you plans and set a time are interfering in your affairs, not IRAN!

[Arta Moeini PhD @ArtaMoeini]

Yet more evidence of the shift toward regionalization. Regional security is driven & guaranteed by regional powers. The most irrelevant and sidelined in the peace process: the Europeans.

[Yanis Varoufakis @yanisvaroufakis]

There you have it. Anthropic's CEO said it: The murder of more than 100 schoolgirls in Minab targeted by Anthropic's CLAUDE "is a use case that doesn't even violate our red lines." Time to rise up against these technofeudal war criminals.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Initially the plan was that the US blockade would be lifted after 30 days.

Iran demanded that it would be lifted upon signing.

Somehow it’s being lifted 5 days *before* the signing?

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

Netanyahu told Trump the IDF will not withdraw from Lebanon and that Israel does not consider itself bound by the Lebanon clause in the U.S.-Iran agreement - Maariv

[محمد بن عبدالرحمن @MBA_AlThani_]

We welcome the agreement reached on the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. We extend our thanks to our brothers in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, as well as to all regional and international parties that contributed to creating the conditions conducive to reaching this understanding. We look forward to all parties engaging in the forthcoming negotiations in a positive and constructive spirit that will help consolidate this progress and build upon it.

We reaffirm that the State of Qatar will remain a steadfast supporter of these efforts and of all endeavours aimed at strengthening security and stability at the regional and international levels through dialogue and peaceful means.