Connor Daly

I trade prediction markets and enjoy the occasional cold beer

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@FiddlesPicks @Novig I ran some sims and I wouldn’t call it free lunch - I have the FV at just under 99%…only ~2-3% EV

But a good callout that spots like this are nuanced: missed FGs, onside kicks, defenses taking away passes to the sidelines, etc…great spot to exploit if you’ve got a solid model

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@Aidi_Bets Based on your most recent tweet about unethical edges it seems betonline may have some justification lol

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

I use calibration charts for any modeling I do. Sure there are some issues as people on X are calling out, but you can call out shortfalls with any approach

What I actually find more interesting is how more than half of these categories show systematic biases either high or low

[Steve @SteveFlanders22]

new paper came out on the accuracy of prediction markets

tldr, they are very accurate

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@probaaron I tried walking so that 98c rewards bidders could run. Unfortunately the bonders ruined it and we’re all left with a sub-par performance. Smaller tick sizes in markets like this would be awesome

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@0xForecaster A sharp trader doesn’t do anything if there is no crowd!

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@probaaron @andrewcourt1 congrats! what's next? 👀

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

so many bonding opportunities on Kalshi, but it's always like "do I tie up $2k at 99¢ for a guaranteed $20 tomorrow, or is not tying that capital up higher EV?"

it's almost always the latter for me - but if anyone wants to fund a bonding venture, I'll start picking up $20 bills

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@GBpickem I don’t know if we’re at a point yet where this statement is true at a general level… many market makers on Novig and Kalshi are simply copying the odds of sportsbooks

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@dan_bernstein_ @deez_charts nice find!

If I'm reading it right, assuming 50¢ contracts, you'd need $4M in combined maker/taker volume just to hit tier 1...and even then, zero rebate in any series where you're a net taker. feels kind of like incentivizing market makers to take from other market makers?

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@OurMetalFriend I forget exactly but one of the AI share markets I think

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

please, somebody punish this bot for poor behavior

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@alch3my101 Must only be a 10 after taker fees

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@Karoshi247 @bladeeTiger This is one of those things where I’m so intrigued about what it would take to build a fifa pricing model and then remember there are 1000 other things that my time is better spent doing

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@edkeonl @Polymarket Latency atop everything. And then websockets everywhere possible

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@doklerpredicts So in that case, can we hear what the niche is now?

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

I have to assume my college stats professor is proud that I'm using the skills from her class to model Trump's social media habits as a stochastic process...right?

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@PlusEV Was this two-sided markets only? Odds screens to date primarily focus on two-way lines (obviously because you need both sides to devig). For one-sided you’d probably need historical calibration to devig (which it looks like you have). Would be curious to see one-sided results

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

Was in Rhode Island for a wedding this weekend. Nothing gave me a bigger smile than getting to explain to my dad why his “-200” DraftKings odds were now showing as “67%”

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@KalshiResearch @MickBransfield The study won’t open for me so maybe this is addressed, but shouldn’t this be weighted by trading volume/profit rather than raw trader count? Feel like this just shows that Kalshi has lots of recs…and without recs, there wouldn’t be incentive for pros to be there…chicken vs egg

[Connor Daly @thatdataguy14]

@Ianbtc777 Love it, good luck out there!