I've reached the point where I only really care about Bitcoin and Bittensor.
I'm still bullish on many other assets and developments in crypto, and a good chart is still a good trade, but when I think about investing in fundamentals, hard assets, and long term value, I find it really difficult to look past BTC and TAO.
Of course nothing can ever be as special as Bitcoin, given we owe this entire space to Satoshi's genius, and I'm also not suggesting Bittensor is anything like Bitcoin, because it's not. However, there are some stark similarities that make it an unusually exciting proposition.
If Bitcoin takes power away from the banks, then Bittensor takes power away from big tech, the new rulers of our world.
A. Decentralisation of the creation and control of artificial intelligence.
B. "Proof of Intelligence" incentivises miners to contribute valuable and performant machine learning models to the network.
C. Permissionless, peer-to-peer marketplace allowing anyone to contribute to or access the collective intelligence.
D. Fair launch model with no premine or venture capital allocation, and a hard capped supply of 21 million.
The inspiration taken from Bitcoin in the design of the network is undeniable, but Bittensors subnet architecture also allows for extreme composability that can lead to emergent capabilities far beyond its initial scope.
Over the cycles I have changed my mind on crypto projects more times than I've changed my underwear, but with Bittensor there is something else. I find myself drawn further and further in, and the deeper I go down the rabbit hole, the more I am convinced.
@DistStateAndMe The Basilica of compute must be built.
In this aim, I have personally donated 2000 Tao to be used by the team.
This will fund foundational infra for the best compute provider in the world, on Bittensor.
The root weight was chosen from several available options. Nothing prevents changing it to speed up or even slow down the process.
I undoubtedly believe it would be wise to accelerate. Continuing to take certain highs on an important asset like TAO without doing or risking anything makes no sense.
I can’t believe that after 120 days, there are still people sitting on the sidelines, not directly involved in dTAO. What’s holding you back? Chasing the FDV is a waste of time. The only thing that matters when figuring out if a subnet is overvalued is the percentage of emission it gets. If $TAO hits $2000, which honestly could already be on the horizon, every subnet’s FDV would be five times what it is now. So what, we’re supposed to crash subnet prices down to 0.30 to balance it out? That’s absurd, and anyone who thinks about it for a second can see it.
Don’t let the big whales, sitting pretty and raking in fat profits from the root, trick you into driving prices down so they can swoop in at the perfect moment. For them, it’s normal to still be on the sidelines; it’s not easy to allocate all that liquidity.
I believe dTAO deserves way more engagement than this, and I don’t think the current situation is all that worrying, but it could definitely be more exciting, and that would help draw even more attention than what we’ve already rightfully earned.
The FDV is already a pretty theoretical concept in crypto as a whole, and it’s even more so in dTAO. Getting hung up on it makes no sense. Investing in dTAO means investing in TAO—that’s the whole design. It means jumping in even if there’s no polished product ready to roll, like some folks think you need or say you should wait for. Investing in dTAO is about casting a vote, taking a stand, and giving the team you back the tools to fully bring their vision to life.
The rule still holds: first come, first served.
That said, given that the root weight was an arbitrary choice, I think a correction wouldn’t hurt.
I think FDV is overrated in Crypto. For Alpha projects I believe emissions are a solid way to gauge a project’s balance. Does Chutes deserve a 18.5% emission rate? Based on what they are building, I’d say absolutely, hands down. Sure, there are already 700k Tokens out there, but it’s also true that less than 30% of them are in the pool. So, if things stay the same, thought they likely won’t, way down the line, long after we’re gone, there’d be about 4M TAO in the pool and 6M Alpha, whit a price of roughly 0.66666… A lot can happen between now and then, though.
It doesn't change much, but I believe that the Alpha supply of the subnet should be interpreted as Alpha outstanding, based on what the whitepaper says. Therefore, about a dozen more days need to be added to reach the 50-50 mark. This applies both to Subnet 32 and to all other subnets with a similar Alpha outstanding, whether they are 64, 4, 8, 51, or others
The FDV of the top 10 Bittensor alpha tokens out of 70+ currently exceeds the FDV of $TAO itself ($6 billion x2). This Pareto will continue forever (with even sharper concentration) as the network produces thousands of subnets. Inference, data, training, compute — will dominate.
TWO BIGGEST THINGS I AM LOOKING FOR IN #SUBNET TOKENS
1) Has the subnet's share of emissions *increased* since $dTAO launch?
I want to be invested in subnets with % of emissions *increasing*. This means the subnet has positive momentum and thrives in a *market-priced* ecosystem (e.g. $dTAO).
2) Is the subnet owner the largest alpha token holder?
Check the @taostats subnet page to see if the owner address matches the largest holder's address. I want the team behind the subnet investing *programmatically* (i.e. repeatedly and continuously) in their own token. If they don't want to own it, why would I?
Subnets that currently meet BOTH criteria #1 and #2 (screen shot below; sorted by $TAO invested in their own subnet from largest to smallest):
sn64 Chutes @rayon_labs
sn4 Targon @manifoldlabs
sn34 BitMind @BitMindAI
sn8 PTN @taoshiio
sn42 Real-Time Data @getmasafi
sn10 Sturdy @SturdyFinance
sn46 NeuralAI @neutanent
sn5 Open Kaito @openkaito
sn28 Dalet @FoundryServices
sn30 Bettensor @Bettensor
sn35 LogicNet @logicnet_ait
sn59 Agent Arena @getmasafi
sn36 WebAgents @WOMBO
sn63 ?unknown? @finestdata_
Note 1: If I got your @ wrong please leave a comment so people know.
Note 2: Some might say these criteria are not "fair." What about smaller subnets that didn't have a large treasury to buy their token and/or don't (yet) produce revenue to buy back their token (flywheel mechanism)?
There is no "fair;" their is only reality. The # of successful subnets will consolidate. The best-run subnets will grow 10-20x+. The worst-run subnets will die. This is how free markets work. No more backroom deals; only results. #bittensor #subnetsummer