MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account 🇺🇸 🇺🇦

Neoconservative. Centrist. Pro-choice, anti-gun. Tweets about politics and sports, with a side of movies and TV shows. “smug neocon cuck” he/him/his

[MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 @TheLastNeocon]

follow me on bluesky!

[Harry Litman @harrylitman]

The DOJ sent TARGET LETTERS to Marc Elias and others in a huge escalation of the Alaska squabbling. Such letters by DOJ practice and regulation only go to people whom they intend to indict. Elias is Mary Peltola's lawyer. A stunning move that is likely to backfire badly.

[Alex Seitz-Wald @aseitzwald]

👀👀 Bill Green on Troy Jackson: “He’s a bumpkin. I wish I hadn’t said that. But he is. He’s not an intelligent guy.”

[Harry Litman @harrylitman]

Given the target letters, I want to repeat: having a candidate put on ballot b/c of a similar name, while a dirty trick, is a longstanding political practice, including in my district in Pittsburgh. Administration basically looking to make a crime out of gambling in the casino.

[𝕯𝖗𝖊𝖆𝖉 Moroz @Dread_Botlord]

i voted for Hillary 17 times today using multiple social security numbers #StillWithHer

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

@TheStalwart @Polymarket D FL-Gov chances now up to 40% but Senate odds are a bit down, I think people are just tripping out on vibes.

[Dylan Hornik @_Hornik_]

LIVE traffic feed on I-95 in New Jersey

MILLIONS of Dems are traveling from NYC to Texas to vote for James Talarico in a STUNNING display of democracy & solidarity 🇺🇸

[Nick @NickZararis]

“Where they going Chuck?”

“Maricopa County”

[em!?! 💿🌌 ✧ @nwzombiegrls]

election day schedule:
8:00 AM: show up bright and early to stuff the ballot box in michigan for abdul el sayed
9:00 AM: drive down to ohio to vote 34 times for amy action
10:00 AM: 90 votes in chicago for good measure
7:30 PM: in texas just in time to vote for james talarico

[Mr. Chau @Srirachachau]

Saying nearly 160 people die a year in the reflecting pool is so funny. That's like a throwaway joke they'd do on The Simpsons about the people of Springfield

[The Red Stripes Supporter Group @TheRedStripesSG]

That is a $78M dollar difference between top end spender and the floor. How does that increase competitive balance? That is the difference between having a Harper, Schwarber and Turner or not.

Players won’t accept a cap but if you’re going to say it’s for competitive balance atleast put in the effort to make it look like it

[Jason Corley @JasonCorley78]

As I shared last night, with 2.2–2.4 million Election Day voters, the Senate race is a coin flip with a modest lean toward Talarico under our early vote assumptions. A smaller Election Day electorate gives the early vote bank more weight, leaving less room for Paxton to erase a potential deficit. On the other hand, a stronger Republican recovery, say, 2.45 to 2.62 million votes, improves his chances, as our scenarios showed.

The governor’s race remains more clearly Abbott-leaning.

It's a pretty straight forward proposition and tonight turns on how many voters show up and how Republican they are relative to those who already voted.

[Thomas Nestico @TJStats]

Proposed Minimum Salary Increases:
- MLBPA: From 780K to 1.5M
- MLB: From 780K to 900K (Up to 1.0M for +2 Service Time)

Remember this when someone tries to tell you that the MLBPA only cares about the stars. The owners care about nobody but themselves.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Alachua, FL Election Day Turnout

🔴 8 AM: R+3.3
🔴 9 AM: R+1.9
🔴 10 AM: R+1.2
🔴 11 AM: R+1.1
🔴 12 PM: R+1.1
🔴 1 PM: R+0.2
🔵 2 PM: D+0.5

[Michael @Socdem_Michael]

If turnout is only 2.2 million on E Day… that is probably bad for Paxton.

Assuming Talarico banked a ~51-47 lead on early vote…

Paxton would need to win E-day by a ~56-42 margin if he wants to win.

[Dj @DjsokeSpeaking]

Here's % of RV turnout at 1pm compared to final %RV turnout in 2024 and 2018 in these counties

Keep in mind that election day voting patterns are different in each county, but obv the dynamic we're heading towards is way closer to 2018 than 2024

[Justin Case @justincbzz]

Btw, for all the republicans ejaculating about Montgomery County, it's a county with exploding population that in 2024, the year D turnout was ass in Texas and Trump went from winning by 5% to 14%, only swung right by...1,5%.

So you might legitimately see it go from R+47 to R+25 or some shit. So a 140k net vote gain for Trump turns into 70k for Paxton just like that.

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

Update: as of 2pm, Florida has crossed 7M ballots cast (final was 11M in 2024, 7.8M in 2022). Registered Ds are at 71% of their 2024 total turnout, Rs at 63%, NPA/others at 56%.

Overall turnout is R+7.1 pts (2024 final was R+11.1 pts). Modest but clear Dem enthusiasm advantage.

[Toby MG @TobyMGData]

In 2024 at 11AM, Madison was at 23% turnout. This year they are at 43%

[Pauline @PaulinesLove]

Try to find the differences lol

[Brian Rosenwald @brianros1]

One thing that didn't make it into my preview column: I think that among the DSAers, Angie Nixon has actually run a better campaign than Abdul El Sayed.