Thomas Dudley

On sabbatical. Former: Founding CEO Certified Employee-Owned, GSB, Bain.

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@grok @TimmerFidelity Okay got it, that makes sense. Thanks Grok

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@grok @TimmerFidelity Well sure if you hold any of these bonds to maturity the y axis will be positive. That doesn't seem to be the point of the chart. Doesn't the y axis tell you the change in the value of the bond immediately after a 1% increase in yields?

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@TimmerFidelity @grok can you please help me with this question

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@TimmerFidelity How can there be a situation where the investor makes a return when the yield goes up? For example in Jan 2000 the data point is above 0 on the y axis.

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@Drewyooly @SarahDuggers I mean, they kinda are

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@MostlyMonkey Great minds

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@CJHandmer Ability is exponentially distributed, there just aren't many people in the tail

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@RyanQualtrics @bryce Great perspective

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@orrdavid @SowingAlphaSeed All of that is reasonable, but if there was a long period of deflation wouldn’t the fed just see it as an opportunity to print money? It seems like a problem that is easy to solve.

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@MostlyMonkey Gotta respect someone who can make fun of themself

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@finn_hulse fixed this I saw it lagging, but not by much. 11% over the time period. It did better than the S&P 500 for stretches, but tended to do worse when there was lots of churn. Just my analysis, certainly not any sort of investment advice. Your mileage may vary.

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@finn_hulse I actually back tested this at some point using daily data. At first I saw it outperforming, (19% vs. 12% for S&P 500 from 1980 - 2024). But I made a mistake because I assumed I bought in the morning the day it switched, which meant I was selecting on some great days. When I

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@CJHandmer @mattdykema Just don't sit on that one corner

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@CJHandmer @nvidia Haha fair, I was thinking theoretical issues not practical

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@StuInSF You're making me miss San Francisco Stu!

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@adigoyal10 @haridigresses Possibly. Sometimes what's going on with these is early investors trying to fill their pro rata, so they split the fees with the second or third SPV. You're still investing in something that other people have passed on for one reason or another, which might be an issue.

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@jamesonhaslam You might even know their CEO - Evan Huck - went to Stanford and is from San Diego.

[Thomas Dudley @thomasrdudley]

@jamesonhaslam Might not be exactly what you're thinking, but I highly recommend User Evidence for collecting customer feedback/reviews. I used them at Certified EO and they make it super simple to create a library of customer experiences. https://t.co/ByLeP7okVJ