Mr. Keynes

A system dynamicist specializing it's application for Macroeconomic Forecasting. Formerly known as Relearning Economics. Owner of @GDPDynamics

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

"Teach a parrot the terms 'supply and demand' and you've got an economist."

-Thomas Carlyle

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@ProfSteveKeen There is a System Dynamic model and a blog here for my Patreon... I just gotta find it.😂

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

The economy looks remarkably stable right now. Which is exactly why I keep coming back to this quote:

"Stability or tranquility in a world with a cyclical past and capitalist financial institutions is destabilizing."

-Hyman Minsky

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

Wait, so if the US treasury issues the securities, the the US Federal Reserve issue the reservers to settle primary security auctions, who's really sending the message?.. 😉

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

The 30-year Treasury yield is at a 19-year high.
The bond market’s message to Washington is clear:
You can’t borrow trillions every year, tolerate persistently high inflation, and expect cheap financing forever.

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

How's it a staff opinion when it's Dynamic Factor Model with no human interface running in the background?

Next time it's wrong I'm shitting directly on the NY Fed president.

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

NEW YORK FED STAFF NOWCAST:
2026:Q3 → 2.2%
https://t.co/so8xByzGM0

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

Great, so the spending rate it approaching the highest level in history...

[Barchart @Barchart]

U.S. Saving Rate is approaching lowest level in history 🚨 🚨

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

Imagine being an egg head, constantly wrong and waiting 27 years for one of your theories to be briefly right for 13 days.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

The big loser at this year's Jackson Hole is the Yen, with $/JPY crossing back above 160. The one thing we know for sure is that FX intervention cannot work unless it's backed up by monetary policy. Long-term JGB yields in Japan must rise to save the Yen.
https://t.co/iLuriaz9rY

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@NYFedResearch There is no such thing as a natural rate of interest outside the of the fallacy ideas of a classically trained economists and their equilibrium models.

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

These micro economic plots don't actually have any use in economic forecasting or any relevance outside of academic fuckey.

[John Bistline @JEBistline]

@_PeterRyan Exactly. It depends on the (situation-specific) place where you are on this (highly stylized) curve.

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@PatrickC1995 Is a Canadian I can firmly say we love selling our shit to America, ain't nothing left or right about it.

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@151Call Oh it is, remember 3 years ago when I was doing that small climate model in Minsky and was talking about it with you. That's a detail only the real Keynes would know

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

All good things come to and end... So did Relearning Economics.

But I'm still here...

[GDP Dynamics @GDPDynamics]

The GDP Dynamics Q3 nowcast rose 0.22 percentage point today to 3.17% SAAR, with consumer spending accounting for essentially the entire increase. Housing and net exports remain drags on growth.

Full article in the next post below.👇

[Prof. Steve Keen @ProfSteveKeen]

Steve Keen: The Debt CRISIS Economists Don’t Want to Talk About #034 https://t.co/BFfBbjV4cA via @YouTube

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@S_Surprenant @VincentGeloso @Ivan_Snook @PhilWMagness This was incredible back and forrh to read, anyways Goodwin's 1967s A Growth Cycle is a good starting point for a formal "scientific" look at Marx.

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@Jensen349 @MMTmacrotrader We are not actively collaborating on anything. But we have not parted ways.

[Douglas Padgett @MMTmacrotrader]

Market Update is live!

Steady climb higher as expect... but we're getting close to some real fun!

And how Bessent could actually bring rates down.

https://t.co/gPtfDBznDc

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@persianknapp Indeed

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@JamesRobichaux Bigger and better things.

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@AKlibertyman

[Mr. Keynes @TyKeynes]

@AKlibertyman Nah it was a downhill MTB bail