Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR)

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[Jason Goepfert @jasongoepfert]

Well then.

The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX $QQQ) lurched from a 3-month low to the best gain in 3 months, during an uptrend.

That April 2000 signal sucked after 3 months, but otherwise...

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

Tech is down hard, but the broad market still looks healthy.

With Nasdaq 8–12% below ATH, while the S&P is only 2–3% below and its 50D is rising, the sell-off has historically been tech-specific.

Nasdaq was higher every time 2M and 3M later:
+8.6% and +9.9% on average (n=17).

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

@jasongoepfert Mega-Cap Tech

🚨 A POWERFUL SEASONAL WINDOW FOR MEGA-CAP TECH MAY BE OPENING

Historical returns after July:
1M: +3.1%
3M: +5.3%
6M: +13.9%
12M: +31.1%
12M win rate: 77.1%

The trend is hard to ignore. 📷
#MegaCapTech #NASDAQ #Stocks #Investing

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

Mega-Cap Tech

🚨 A POWERFUL SEASONAL WINDOW FOR MEGA-CAP TECH MAY BE OPENINGHistorical returns after July:

1M: +3.1%
3M: +5.3%
6M: +13.9%
12M: +31.1%
12M win rate: 77.1%

The trend is hard to ignore. 📈
#MegaCapTech #NASDAQ #Stocks #Investing

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

Gold / IAU

🚨 GOLD JUST FLASHED A RARE 12M MOMENTUM SIGNALAfter IAU rose +20% in 12 months, the following year was positive 93.8% of the time.Avg forward return: +20.1%
Excess return: +8.4%Latest signal: Jul 27, 2026 👀#Gold #IAU #Investing #Commodities

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Reminder:❤️‍🔥

After a down Q1 and 10%+ Q2 $SPX is 6-for-6 rest of the year since 1950. 6 prior yrs SPX finished higher in Q3, Q4, 2nd half.

If worst 2nd half performance (1968), still maths out to 7821 year-end.

$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA $VIX $SMH $GOOGL
via @AlmanacTrader

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Midterm year seasonality: The bottom is actually at the end of June... Merrill

In the post-war period, the S&P 500 has delivered positive total returns post-election 100% of the time over both 6- and 12-month horizons, averaging 14.9% and 18.3%, respectively.

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

@BraVoCycles NASDAQ JUST FLASHED A SERIOUS SIGNAL.

Across 127 completed historical cases:
• 12M average return: +28.2%
• Win rate: 87.4%
• Excess vs. all days: +10.7 pts

That is not noise. That is a setup worth watching.

$NDX $QQQ #Nasdaq #Momentum #Stocks

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

@ISABELNET_SA @GoldmanSachs NASDAQ JUST FLASHED A SERIOUS SIGNAL.

Across 127 completed historical cases:
• 12M average return: +28.2%
• Win rate: 87.4%
• Excess vs. all days: +10.7 pts

That is not noise. That is a setup worth watching.

$NDX $QQQ #Nasdaq #Momentum #Stocks

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

@sentimentrader NASDAQ JUST FLASHED A SERIOUS SIGNAL.

Across 127 completed historical cases:
• 12M average return: +28.2%
• Win rate: 87.4%
• Excess vs. all days: +10.7 pts

That is not noise. That is a setup worth watching.

$NDX $QQQ #Nasdaq #Momentum #Stocks

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

NASDAQ JUST FLASHED A SERIOUS SIGNAL.

Across 127 completed historical cases:
• 12M average return: +28.2%
• Win rate: 87.4%
• Excess vs. all days: +10.7 pts

That is not noise. That is a setup worth watching.

$NDX $QQQ #Nasdaq #Momentum #Stocks

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

@jasongoepfert May you share us the date of signals?

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

@Bluekurtic $NDX dip signal triggered again: • 87.2% 12M win rate • +26.6% avg. 12M return • +9.0% vs. normal periods History favors buying the dip.

$QQQ
#Nasdaq

[Global Macro Quant | 미국주총꾼 (KR) @US_MacroQuant]

$NDX dip signal triggered again:

• 87.2% 12M win rate
• +26.6% avg. 12M return
• +9.0% vs. normal periods
History favors buying the dip. $QQQ #Nasdaq

[Bluekurtic Market Insights @Bluekurtic]

We've said it on repeat: 2026 isn't an ordinary midterm year. This is a second presidential midterm year where S&P 500 is far stronger than typical mid term years.

July has been the softest month with a weaker Q3 but almost 10%+ gains piling up in Q4. $SPX $SPY

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

SPX:

[Nautilus Research @NautilusCap]

#kospi Kospi Index swigs down -25%.

[SentimenTrader @sentimentrader]

Crude’s rally comes with a warning label.

Term structure just crossed above 1.05. Over the past 15 years, crude was higher six months later only 15% of the time.

Risk premiums can fade fast.

[HB Research @HBResearchX]

Tech was higher one year later in all 18 completed historical cases.

XLK reclaimed its 50D SMA on July 8 with 63D ROC above +5%.

Average 12M return: +26.1%.

[ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA]

🇺🇸 EPS

For Q2 2026, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 22% from a year earlier, with tech once again doing almost all the work. The script hasn't changed: technology remains the growth engine
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6p

h/t @jpmorgan $spx #spx #sp500 #earnings #EPS