verdecap

Economics, trading, travelling, football

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Bessent: "I can't control the bond market. What I can do is try to get people to slow down and think."

"What I meant by 'I am the house' is that I have superior information."

[Saad. @SaadInCyber]

Iran has made many miscalculations in this war, but perhaps the biggest one so far is that they think an average American is capable of reading 26 pages.

[verdecap @verdecapt]

@qthomp I was at the same view until I saw every tech bro in WH signing and smiling around - they need to keep it on it seems

[Quinn Thompson @qthomp]

Next headline we're going to see...
"Goldman: Gulf oil exports have now reached 1 trillion barrels per day, the most in the history of the unvierse, and will power all the datacenters on Mars by 2027" 🤭😅

How much is Bessent and Trump paying Goldman and Kpler? Seems like these guys have become another arm of the propaganda machine.

[verdecap @verdecapt]

Make it or break it - the SPY/RSP divergence reached the double top of previous market highs.. #SPY

[aech @smplrandom]

This is like that scene from the big short where that dancer is talking about her 5 overleveraged homes in Miami

[verdecap @verdecapt]

2026 midterms a la 2018 ? Some macro dynamics are eerily similar..

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

Over the last three months, there has been a repeatable and extremely sizable footprint in the /ES market that consistently comes in and drives equities lower.

The flow has a very specific execution pattern. They pile into the order book, aggressively taking liquidity tick after tick through what looks like a compressed TWAP. The price impact is immediate, and the pressure tends to remain heavy throughout the moment they turn the program on. In some ways, it resembles forced or margin-related selling (waterfall like selling), despite the fact that it clearly isn’t. When they release from the orderbook, the market slightly bounces and then trades in a small range for the remaining part of the day. There’s other execution tendencies this end user has. I won’t list out all for obvious reasons but at this point I’m sure a lot of traders are seeing this.

What makes it particularly interesting is trying to conceptualize what type of shop could be behind it. There are very few firms in the world with a balance sheet large enough to consistently trade this kind of size and execute in such an elementary manner.

And no it’s not due to gamma or delta hedging. It doesn’t behave like a traditional equity derivatives dealer that would be hedging out delta/ gamma risk. The execution is less sophisticated, and the footprint tends to have a strong cross-asset relationship with moves in rates, which isn’t typically what you would expect from an equity derivatives market maker. It’s not a vol control fund, it’s not a pension or endowment. Which narrows the list down for those with a creative mind.

These things end up making headlines weeks or months later. Whatever this flow is, it’s truly fascinating to watch this footprint reappear every few days with such force, consistency, and lack of care to hide their impact. I’m not sure I have ever seen a flow like this while markets are so close to all time highs.

[James Holland @James7Holland]

It is depressingly apparent that to find reasonable commentators on global affairs today, you need to look outside of Europe.

Below, former Singaporean Ambassador to the UN, Kishore Mahbubani, dispels the propagandistic narrative that @MishalHusain can't help but defend.

[471TO @TOzgokmen]

Israel elections in the last week of October
US elections in the first week of November.

Something will change between now & then.

[Meltem Demirors @Melt_Dem]

hearing banks stopping all compute lending

credit crunch is beginning

[verdecap @verdecapt]

@zerohedge SMH/IGV

[verdecap @verdecapt]

@Bogachan_1971 sir, I was wondering if you have commented on recent development in TR? Worse than '95 or '01 schemes in your opinion ?

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

guy tried to be a hyperscaler

[verdecap @verdecapt]

@hkuppy @ed_fin @mintzmyer Kuppy hope you enjoy the food and Bosphorus

[verdecap @verdecapt]

@peterjhasson Mostly Indians and Asians to hide behind their ‘driving skills’

[@dingchilling 🫪 @dingchilling]

some conspiracy theories are real

[verdecap @verdecapt]

Jeez.. #CL

[verdecap @verdecapt]

@zerohedge What a timely announcement by Saudis..