Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

Iran are also liars & can't be trusted.
I think a deal between Iran & Oman is almost certain to be announced soon, but it will be a deal acceptable to Iran where they control Inbound transit and also have veto over outbound transit.
Trump will then lie again & claim that the "strait is fully open". The algos will believe this & oil will fall again.
The next step will be renewed escalation after Iran starts firing on ships that believe Trump & try to enter without getting approval from Iran.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@BrettErickson28 The US & its Gulf allies want to keep the Omani route active to deny Iran control of Hormuz.
Similar to a landowner declaring that the public no longer has right of way on a path through his property. Those opposed to this will try to challenge it by continuing to use it.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@DonMiami3 If a Democrat were to say this, every Republican & Fox news host would start screaming about "communism" and "takers not makers".

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@brandonjcarl This is a bearish signal.
Market Makers are trying to dump their bags on Retail.
If they were actually bullish, they would say in public that they are bearish.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@phileeppos IRNA has published a photo of a burning tanker, but my guess is that it isn't the same tanker & is just intended as a warning.
https://t.co/l6RgYWsVpS

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@phileeppos I think they want to avoid unnecessary casualties among civilian sailors for PR purposes. In particular, most of the sailors are from neutral countries such as India, and they don't want to create more enemies.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@Hedgeye Minus 5% is not a "crash". A crash would be something like 15% or 20%.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@StealthQE4 Things could be about to heat up again in Hormuz:
https://t.co/afnjVTXCTS

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC has just launched an anti-ship cruise missile from Sirik toward the Strait of Hormuz per initial reports, with the likely target being an oil tanker sent by the US that switched off its AIS an hour ago while passing through the US-backed southern route.

This comes as Trump simultaneously claims just minutes ago "there's a deal on Hormuz and there will be a deal on denuclearization" with "new Iran negotiations to begin Monday afternoon."

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@HFI_Research This is truly wild.
The "deal" that Barak Ravid is claiming Iran & the US have agreed is that all incoming traffic should use the Iranian lane, while outgoing traffic uses the Omani lane.
The US is now flouting the agreement that they've agreed to, only yesterday.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@stockdatamarket Trump is repeating the same talking points from yesterday. The Iranians have denied there is any deal.
In any case, how the Asian markets do today is a lot more important. If Kospi & Taiwan fall again, then there'll be more pressure on Semis in the US session.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@orrdavid @nickgiva1 The hack was caused by the holders using single-signature wallets. If they had used multi-signature wallets, then their Bitcoin would have been safe.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@DonMiami3 Yeah, the TACO happened literally a few hours after the Truth social data feed service went live.
Too much of a coincidence.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

A deal is impossible.
Iran wants full control of Hormuz. If it controls Hormuz, then it controls the world's oil supply & that means it controls the world's economy & becomes a major world power.
This is so valuable that Iran won't give it up just for some some temporary sanctions relief or release of a few billion in frozen funds.
The US cannot accept Iran's control of Hormuz for this exact same reason.
The current stalemate will continue.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@Reignots @jbulltard1 @HyperliquidX A few milliseconds is more than enough for the Algos.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@jbulltard1 Of course they did! That's the whole point of the fee.
You get the "Truth" a few milliseconds in advance so the algos can put in their shorts.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@DarioCpx This is actually bullish oil.
It means Trump is slowly beginning to understand that the IRGC is not giving up control of Hormuz anytime soon.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@LVision_Trading Yeah, it's funny how the exact same X accounts get over-excited every single time and insist that "this time" things are different and Trump really will escalate.
Trump will not escalate, but the IRGC also will not give up control of Hormuz.

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@DarioCpx Whenever Trump starts talking about bombing power plants, it's a sign that another TACO is incoming. I don't expect the IRGC to agree to the free southern Omani lane, but there's also not going to be any escalation.
Oil is already down 3% now.
https://t.co/hueP9a2SKw

[MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes]

Qatari mediators reportedly held talks on Saturday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Omani officials over reopening the Strait of Hormuz - Axios

Bond market TACO?

#MacroEdge

[Vik 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 @vik8004]

@stockdatamarket It could be related to the jump in Oil which happened immediately after market close, after Trump said that he'd be attacking Iran again.