Jeff Berardelli

WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

🌀 Imagine being isolated on this tiny island in the middle of the behemoth Super Typhoon Bavi! The storm made landfall this evening with winds of 180 mph, gusts over 210 mph. The stadium effect in storms like this is massive. #Rota #Guam #bavi #Typhoon

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

‼️ LANDFALL 🙏 Scary situation tonight as Super Typhoon BAVI swallows the tiny Island of Rota just north of Guam. The 3D view shows how immense the 180 mph storm is compared to the islands in the path. 2000 people live there. Let’s hope they were able to protect themselves from this behemoth! 🙏 #Bavi #Typhoon #Guam #Rota

[Zeke Hausfather @hausfath]

On this hot fourth of July it is worth reminding folks that its not the sun that's causing global warming. Solar output (as measured by satellites) has been flat over the past 50 years when global temperatures have shot up.

Its our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

‼️ LANDFALL 🙏 Scary situation tonight as Super Typhoon BAVI swallows the tiny Island of Rota just north of Guam. The 3D view shows how immense the 180 mph storm is compared to the islands in the path. 2000 people live there. Let’s hope they were able to protect themselves from this behemoth! 🙏 #Bavi #Typhoon #Guam #Rota

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@johnecohound @extremetemps https://t.co/XHDPykJTdt

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

Here's another image out there which does not have as many of the records as the map, BUT does show just how how much hotter these #European records were compared to the previous June records. In some cases a 2C which is a huge margin to break a monthly record by. And you can't really blame most of it on urbanization. European cities have been heavily urbanized for a very long time.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

For our friend’s in #Europe I put together a “map of record” for the June 2026 #Heatwave - the most severe in Europe’s history - with the help of @extremetemps Thank U!
All-Time National Heat Records:
Germany — 41.8°C (107.2°F)
Czechia — 41.9°C (107.4°F)
Denmark — 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Poland — 40.5°C (104.9°F)
Belarus — 40.4°C (104.7°F)
Slovakia — 41.3°C (106.3°F)
Hungary — 42.0°C (107.6°F)
Luxembourg — 40.9°C (105.6°F)
Jersey — 39.3°C (102.7°F)
Guernsey — 36.4°C (97.5°F)

June National Heat Records:
Austria — 40.1°C (104.2°F)
Croatia — 41.0°C (105.8°F)
Slovenia — 38.7°C (101.7°F)
Montenegro — 41.7°C (107.1°F)
Lithuania — 36.3°C (97.3°F)
UK — 37.7°C (99.9°F)
Switzerland — 39.0°C (102.2°F)
Isle of Man — 27.6°C (81.7°F)
Belgium — 39.9°C (103.8°F)
Netherlands — 39.4°C (102.9°F)
@DaveThroup @ed_hawkins @or_bit_eye @DavidUllrich202 @dwallacewells @PGDynes

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@SusaHatchRedux A lot more energy in the system for extreme weather

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

Side by side ECMWF El Nino plume forecasts from June 1 (left) and July 1 (right). Another bump upward. Notice the min in June was around +3... now it's +3.3. The average appears now to be +3.9 (up from ~3.6 in June).
Just eye balling so I'm sure I am off by a smidge.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@AaronLoweWX Yes I agree. Let's hope not!!

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

Major Marine Heatwave Begins!? Serious ocean heat is building in South Florida & The Keys. Florida Bay afternoon temps are now peaking up to 97. Florida Keys water temps are 90-93, already past coral stress thresholds and it’s ahead of the record pace set in the historic 2023 event. That’s no surprise. 2023 was an El Niño and 2026 is far stronger. Even though El Niño is a Pacific phenomena, the strongest El Niño events are consistently associated with widespread, synchronized bleaching across multiple ocean basins. NOAA is forecasting an increasing major marine heatwave in The Keys this summer. That doesn’t mean it will be as bad as 2023, but it seems likely it will be very significant.
Why it’s important?
The 2023 heatwave virtually wiped out staghorn and elkhorn in the Keys, while some massive corals survived better; overall living/healthy coral cover is now only a tiny remnant of what it was, now just 2% in many areas. In the 1970s it was around 40%. We’ve lost a lot. And increasing summer heat continues to make recovery nearly impossible. #Florida #floridakeys #heatwave #coral #bleaching

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@SWFLWX Yes I expect 100 sooner than later. Those silty, shallow FL Bay sites get scorching!

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

Here's another image out there which does not have as many of the records as the map, BUT does show just how how much hotter these #European records were compared to the previous June records. In some cases a 2C which is a huge margin to break a monthly record by. And you can't really blame most of it on urbanization. European cities have been heavily urbanized for a very long time.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

For our friend’s in #Europe I put together a “map of record” for the June 2026 #Heatwave - the most severe in Europe’s history - with the help of @extremetemps Thank U!
All-Time National Heat Records:
Germany — 41.8°C (107.2°F)
Czechia — 41.9°C (107.4°F)
Denmark — 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Poland — 40.5°C (104.9°F)
Belarus — 40.4°C (104.7°F)
Slovakia — 41.3°C (106.3°F)
Hungary — 42.0°C (107.6°F)
Luxembourg — 40.9°C (105.6°F)
Jersey — 39.3°C (102.7°F)
Guernsey — 36.4°C (97.5°F)

June National Heat Records:
Austria — 40.1°C (104.2°F)
Croatia — 41.0°C (105.8°F)
Slovenia — 38.7°C (101.7°F)
Montenegro — 41.7°C (107.1°F)
Lithuania — 36.3°C (97.3°F)
UK — 37.7°C (99.9°F)
Switzerland — 39.0°C (102.2°F)
Isle of Man — 27.6°C (81.7°F)
Belgium — 39.9°C (103.8°F)
Netherlands — 39.4°C (102.9°F)
@DaveThroup @ed_hawkins @or_bit_eye @DavidUllrich202 @dwallacewells @PGDynes

[Dr. Serge Zaka (Dr. Zarge) @SergeZaka]

[1/2] Voici le cumul de pluie prévu pour la semaine prochaine en France : rien. Ce 3ème dôme de chaleur accompagnant cette 3ème canicule continue à méticuleusement assécher nos sols. Les records de 1976 et 2022 seront en sursis pour la période. Et on est que le 5 juillet.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@PaulRoundy1 Yes great point

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@claireingelow @extremetemps Claire… 44-45 is not an all-time or June record for France.
It was hotter than most of the rest of Europe, but for its own country even 45 is not a record. But it was a country wide record for the avg national temp of 30C on one day.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

For France, they saw temps higher than any of these nations. They hit 44-45C (112F) But it was not a national or June record for individual sites. Instead they broke their all-time nationwide hottest day record (avg of whole country) at 30C.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@claireingelow @extremetemps They did… but the 30 is the all-time nationwide record (avg for a day)

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@SV_oh9 @NoTricksZone This is from an account I don’t have access to.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

It’s a 15 day forecast. (See clock on top of movie)
3-4” in 15 days is much more than we were getting, but honestly not much more than normal.
Anyway… this map shows the rainfall over the past 7 days. Much of central FL has already had 2-4”… except coastal areas like Pinellas.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

The RAIN is finally back in Rainy season Florida! But the timing is not ideal. Storm chances in the 70% range through the 4th of July holiday weekend. Several inches of rain through next week. #florida #storm #rain #4thofjuly

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

@termnalguidance It’s a 15 day forecast. (Click the movie… it ends on July 14th) There’s 11 days left.

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

On this #4thofJuly #Colorado is dealing with expanding fires, #smoke, and air quality issues. The worst snow season on record with extreme drought, on top of the longer term climate drying trend, set the stage for #fire. #AspenAcres Fire is 85K acres, 0% contained, and expanding. Evacuation orders persist. Be safe!