AI is the Great Oxidation Event. When aerobic respiration arrived on Earth it unlocked 18x more power. As a result, aerobic life grew and anaerobic became niche. AI unlocks way more than 18x. The choice is either to accept niche fate or embrace and thrive.
A buttload of developers are going through a tough time right now.
Their identity has always been tied to their ability to write code, so now they feel threatened by this new era where *anyone* can write code.
If they don't write code anymore, who are they?
I'm very pragmatic, and yet I've struggled with this too, so I totally understand how tough it must be for others.
You'll hear from these people everywhere. They are the ones fighting with everything they've got against AI-generated code.
But they must understand this is an uphill battle.
Manually writing code is destined to disappear. There's no going back.
@PLT_cheater@conways_law I think you're right on both counts, it's just that I see that surveillance use being dwarfed by all the others. It's like as a coder it feels like coding's where most tokens are used, but my research tells that's only 10-20% of token spend.
First thing that comes to mind is that surveillance wouldn't demand that much compute. The other issue is political. People are fighting data centers and the power infrastructure they require. So I suspect there not to be a surplus for a decade and taken demand to follow an upward trend for that time.
@a16z@alighodsi Just might be a debt squeeze that focuses token spend on efficiency and tighter training cycles. Two models in a garage also underappreciated.
The way I look at it, AI is assuming the role of explorer. Just like you can't go back and discover the new world for the first time, you won't be able to take the lead exploring math. What you can do is follow the map and live in what's been found. Develop it in ways that make it useful to yourself or others. They say once you've zoomed into a fractal far enough you're likely the only human whose ever seen it. This feels like that. Maybe that's boring. Not sure how else to process this situation.
@rexstjohn I'd estimate about twice the height it reached. It's falling most of the time here. The impulse to get it up there about what it took for the landing.