@kristinnsms Terminal value questions from AVs, insurers diverting incremental share to IAA, Chinese EVs flooding the market at cheaper replacement value internationally
@sidecarcap Margin of safety doesn’t just apply to valuation. Exceptional CEOs handle challenges, navigate disruptions, and adapt better than average ones, giving their businesses more optionality and the chance to continue to compound
@BoringBiz_ Unfortunately there’s a lot of apathy among students towards school and future career prospects, ironically, as a result of AI. Would expect college degrees to continue to decline in value as the default 4 yr degree path makes less sense.
@quantian1 The bear/bull debate thus hinges on capex intensity post-2028. Same story as telecom/railroads, does steady-state FCF justify the buildout-era valuations?
@curtismakes@BoringBiz_ But then labor and resources are allocated to the growing companies where engineering output is the constraint. Things will get moved around, but productivity increases aren’t wasted. Intelligence demand is infinite at a macro level.
@atelicinvest You know how technically we can make cars go at like 20mph but it costs a fuck ton of money and it requires like top 10 mechanics in the world to keep it running so only rich people drive them and everyone else uses horses
it’s the same thing with ‘agentic workflows’
@ATabarrok@SuperRareKeegan McDonald’s doesn’t calculate how many hamburgers they can sell profitably or guess the number of burgers each person will eat to try to only serve them to skinny people. Each marginal hamburger for McDonald’s is profit, but each marginal hamburger for the insurer is pure loss
@gregoryblotnick Reputation broadcasting is super important in L/S. Building in public, posting on X, using your real name, forming a track record…that’s how you can meaningfully increase your number of “steel beams” and create more opportunities for yourself without changing your character
@gregoryblotnick Strong piece but I think you’re conflating two different things under “reputation focus,” those being reputation falsification (divergence from character, agree this is poison) and reputation broadcasting (letting more people accurately see who you are).
@FundamentEdge@ilikecalamari Why can’t AI agents also train junior analysts? It seems like they are being framed as just a burden when they clearly have positive ROI for firms. Also, why would it stop at Juniors? Are you not concerned about seniors & PMs being abstracted away as well?
@FundamentEdge@convertiblecap After participating in the Perplexity Computer stock pitch competition, I feel more confident that such tools will NOT replace actual junior talent. It made pure slop. The slop was plausible and often directionally accurate, yes, but I found very little real use for Computer.
@levie I like the final point about implementation being very technical. Makes me think we can expect more SWE seats in the future as agents are implemented and maintained across enterprises—much different than seat-based compression narrative of the previous two years
@hedgie007@FundamentEdge Not necessarily, I think he argues that AI speeds up the commodity process of ramping on companies and industries to free up more time for proprietary work
@FundamentEdge Even if OpenAI catches up, what happens in a few weeks/months when Anthropic releases Claude 5 (which we know is supposedly very good)? Does the gap not widen?