PatiencePace

prop trader， Interest Rates，Fixed Income/Bonds，Commodities，Crypto ……08 年入行老交易员

[Neil Sethi NEW account @neilsethinew]

Citadel's Rubner (note the statistics were as of mid-September so they are even less favorable for equities):

The quarter-end rebalance starts from an unfavorable cross-asset move. The S&P 500 is still up roughly 1% in Q3, while bonds are down 2.2%, increasing the potential need for pensions to sell equities and buy fixed income into quarter-end.

The top 100 US pension plans are approximately 112% funded, their highest funding levels since 2001. Strong funding levels continue to incentivize plans to de-glide and immunize portfolios, creating the potential for mechanical equity selling and fixed income buying into quarter-end.

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@andyz8818576155 trump 被弹劾吗。。。

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@ShanghaoJin 哈哈哈

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@kingster525 随时可以是顶

[Alex @Alex_Intel_]

This note from Northland was also kinda funny because it's the first wallstreet analyst I've seen upgrade Intel on a belief that Taiwan will likely be blockaded or invaded in the next few years lol.

"In our view, it is not an if; it is a when, reuniting with China. China’s reunification of Taiwan could happen within the next 18 months. The war in Iran has created a window of opportunity for a Chinese blockade of Taiwan; the presidential election on 1/28 is also a potential catalyst. We expect INTC
will outperform in this eventuality."

I think we entering an acute period of risk towards Taiwan for next 24-36 months. Of course everything would crash except for Intel, which along with a few other stocks would soar. Not a reason to purely own Intel, but its effectively a portfolio hedge.

$INTC

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

"$7 trillion of Treasury bills are currently outstanding, the vast majority of which mature within one year. Assuming the Fed hikes rates by 75bp this year as we expect, annual interest costs on outstanding T-bills alone could increase by roughly $50 Bn or ~15bps of GDP" - BofA

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

I think next week’s payrolls print will disappoint, and has decent (though not our baseline) chance of being negative.

Supposed it is a negative print. There is no modern Fed era precedent of Fed hiking after two negative payrolls prints.

Still 50-50?

[SpotGamma @spotgamma]

$SPY

IV very low: rank 7/100
High Call vs put demand: Skew Rank is 99/100

No one cares about vol nor puts and I don't think that matters for at least another 4-5 sessions.

each dot is single stock constituent - they are mainly lower IV and call skewed too

[卢尔辰 @erchenlu1]

99.9%的套利者，量化交易，短线交易者，如果时间线拉长到10-15年以上，基本上都不乐观，不仅投资回报遭遇严重的均值回归，甚至亏损；而且因为长期身体处于应激模式，皮质醇受到极大影响，失眠和睡眠不好是常态，身体受损严重。

最终可谓是得不偿失。

深究底层原因，本质上还是一个认识论上的错误：

把不可知的东西假装成可知，把随机波动误认为个人能力可以长期征服的对象。

或者说是一种认知上的傲慢（epistemic hubris），错误地高估了自己的认知边界，把有限理性当成了能够驾驭复杂系统的全知视角。

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator is at 9.7. The scale ends at 10, and it has been this high only a few times since 2002.

The number does not tell you the top is in. It tells you there is nobody left to convince.

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@Jason60704294 真牛逼

[Stern Drew @SternDrewCrypto]

🚨 Warning: Bank of Japan Forces $6T Homeward — Prepare for the Biggest Liquidity Crunch Ever!

BoJ insider Yuto Kanzaki just revealed: Japan’s wealth returns home by any means necessary!

This is the Reverse Carry Trade (RCT) unwind going nuclear.

After decades of cheap Yen funding, Japanese institutions are being forced to dump their $6 TRILLION+ in foreign securities (mostly US Treasuries & stocks) and bring the money back.

Japan’s 250%+ debt-to-GDP bomb, exploding pensions, and weak Yen crisis leave them no choice.

Expect a brutal fire sale: US yields spiking, global stocks crashing, liquidity vanishing, and carry trades getting annihilated worldwide.

The world’s largest creditor nation just turned desperate. This isn’t policy normalization, it’s survival mode.

Markets are about to feel the pain.

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@ShanghaoJin 金老师是真有东西

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@laomunova 科幻

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@BabybusFL 第一种是骗韭菜，第二种是骗自己

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@BabybusFL 合理位置，大概 150 万左右

[外汇交易员 @fxtrader]

路透独家：中国正与国内主要人工智能(AI)企业举行会谈，讨论限制海外访问国产先进AI模型。阿里巴巴、字节跳动和智谱参加了与中国监管部门的会议，讨论可能出台的新���制措施。会议还讨论了将人工智能技术泄露或被窃取行为纳入中国国家安全法惩处范围的问题。中国官员还提出实施新措施的可能性，以限制国内AI初创企业的融资来源。

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@ShanghaoJin 有东西

[王海滨的财经闲谈 @wangwatchworld]

中国经济本身内需不振，流动性又都被抽到AI和替代科技去了，好死不死的是这部分是硬踢劳力出局的，现在灵活用工已经3.2亿了。
我之所以用索洛模型，就是用它模型里的三元要素，资本边际效应递减，劳力边际效应递减，需要技术的外部性推动，而技术的外部性削弱劳力收益的时候，整个经济架构就会解体。
中国经济内需不振，资产负债表紧缩，预估收益消极导致消费函数塌陷。
AI泡沫��抽走资金的黑洞，再次导致劳力收益枯竭。
一旦阴谋论是真的，华尔街把泡沫挤破，美元指数��势，流动性回归，美国经济下行拖累全球，你的出口马上完蛋，内需完蛋。

[PatiencePace @zzzan0101]

@181IMGI 完全同意