abinhainan MetaOne

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

刚刚公布的美国9月非农和失业率数据，说说我的理解。
1、新增非农33.6万，远超市场预期的17万和8月份的18.7。更关键的是还把7月份非农从15.7万上修到23.7万，8月份非农18.7万上修至22.7万，合计上修了11.9万。我们在回过头去看周二公布的JOLTs职位缺口961万、远超预期的880万。细看新增就业的来源大部分还是休闲娱乐服务领域，之前看到的亚马逊、ups近期都在为了购物季大规模招人，这应该也是9月非农大超预期的原因之一。

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

最近看完这本《估值与故事》，最大的感受就是做web3投资的朋友有必要都来读一读。一说到币市的投资，大家基本上就是提到了叙事，因为也没啥基本面可言。达摩达兰教授的这本书，把基本面和故事很好的融合在一起了，在他看来估值就是寻找故事与数字之间的均衡。“没有数字支撑的故事无异于童话；缺乏故事背景的数字也只是金融建模中的练习”。

我在回想过往接触的很多投资实例：股票投资理论是从数字走向故事，早期我们接触最早的格雷厄姆《证券分析》完全是一本财务数字分析，告诉我们如何从财务分析上发现远低于实际价值的公司然后去“捡烟蒂”；到了巴菲特阶段在格雷厄姆的基础上开始接受费雪的成长股概念、我理解是在财务数字的基础上部分接受了叙事，而近年来科技股大浪潮里叙事明显占据了很重要的地位。

而Crypto投资应该完全是相反的历程，早期完全靠叙事和愿景支撑了加密货币从蛮荒边缘走向主流，演化到当下已经开始有一部分基本面和数字可以去分析和对比了，典型如@tokenterminal 上的很多项目都开始用p/s、PE去分析虽然还不那么准确，但也能说明在加密投资领域，叙事也开始融合数字和基本面。当然这还有很长的路要走

写到这里突然想到其实科技领域的一级市场投资也是一个从叙事到估值的阶段，早期天使完全没有数据可以看只能从趋势、时机、业务模式和团队去推演未来的可能性，越到后期数据越多估值越来越成为重要的投资决策依据了。从这一点上来说，加密投资其实跟科技领域的一级市场投资有很大的相似。

在这本书里，达摩达兰把故事分成了三种：绝无可能的故事，似无可能的故事，不太可能的故事。在他看来，传统的价值投资者主要投资于讲述“极有可能”甚至必定会成功的公司。更加积极的价值投资者也许会在投资极有可能的故事基础上再稍微冒点儿险，以合适的价格投资那些很有可能成功的公司。成长性投资者则更习惯于将赌注压在“很有可能”发生的故事上，并将故事转化为对增长率的预估，同时接受这些预估具有一定风险的事实。后期风险投资者普遍偏好“很有可能”的故事，即对有希望和潜力的公司进行投资。早期的风险资本家则更愿意在“很可能”的故事上碰运气，他们深知这些故事中只有一部分会成为“很有可能”的故事，更少的一部分会成为“极有可能”的故事。

最好是能在故事和数字之间达到平衡：只有故事而没有数字的商业很可能沦为巨大的陷阱，从郁金香泡沫到南海泡沫再到庞氏骗局，金融史上这样的案例比比皆是。在当今我们所处的时代，虚假的故事更容易搭乘自媒体的翅膀而迷惑人心，需要格外警惕。另一方面，数字看起来忠诚可靠，但有时候它也会骗人，层层数据背后隐藏着偏差，不精确性容易被看似精确的估算掩盖，所以“没有故事作为支撑的估值既无灵魂也不可信。”

达摩达兰作为知名的财务和估值专家，跌了这本估值与故事融合的书，其实这本书就是很有意思的一点。

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ I wonder how much of the payrolls upside is to do with seasonal quirks more than anything. Take Leisure & Hospitality. Official adjusted data shows this add +96k jobs. But unadjusted data shows sector shed 466k jobs in Sep. Unadjusted private sector payrolls was -399k 🤷‍♂️ $USD

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

We've got some great on-chain #Bitcoin news hot off the press here...

The secondary bottom signal is now confirmed on the UTXO's in loss after the return under the trend.

It looks like the parabola of loss has finally ended.

The peaks in the past have lined up with events like the 2015 return to lows, and the 2020 black swan which we surpassed on the latest push.

After these signals, Bitcoin did not go any lower, and marked the end of the "return to lows" that many are currently waiting for.

Is this time different?

[ZachXBT @zachxbt]

The same scammer profited $385K (234 ETH) in the past 24 hours off SIM swapping four different FriendTech users.

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

"Currency devaluations typically occur abruptly during debt crises"

History repeats.

We're watching a sovereign debt crisis unfold.

And there are two ways out: Massive dollar devaluation, or mass defaults.

Nobody wants zero-yield hard assets that can't be seized or debased until everyone wants zero-yield hard assets that can't be seized or debased.

#Bitcoin was created to protect you for this moment.

The debt crisis is going mainstream.

Bitcoin is the ark for the coming fiat flood.

Or the solid shelter for the coming deflationary earthquake.

Expect BlackRock and Fidelity to run with this narrative the moment a spot BTC ETF gets approved.

Finite supply. Zero counter-party risk.

Two attributes that that will soon be very highly valued.

Slowly at first, then all at once.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Total US debt rises by $275 billion in ONE DAY to a record $33.44 trillion, according to Zerohedge.

Exactly 2 weeks ago, total US debt hit $33 trillion for the first time ever.

This means that the US has added $32 billion in debt per day for the last 2 weeks.

At the current pace, the US will add $1 trillion of debt in a month.

The debt ceiling “crisis” is far from over.

[Samson Mow @Excellion]

In a single day, the US added more than half of #Bitcoin’s entire market cap in debt. That’s something like 10 million @BTC. And yet there are still people that are unsure if $27k is a good price to buy.

[Filecoin @Filecoin]

Explore the future of Filecoin Storage with Synthetic-PoRep! Check out this new blog post to discover how Synth-PoRep revolutionizes storage efficiency, saving up to 98% of storage space and lowering gas costs for Storage Providers. 👇
https://t.co/KHXxG3BUbL

[Filippo Franchini @filippoweb3]

Thread 🧵- What is #Web3 really? Why is #Polkadot well suited as a platform to secure and power web3 applications? (1/8)

New Wiki page👇
https://t.co/zZT5Zu9Crm

Web3 is about data ownership, immutability, and availability. It's a trustless and interoperable environment as well.

[rphmeier @rphmeier]

Personal News: Friday was my last day at Parity Technologies after over 7 years. Today I’m starting a new chapter within the Polkadot ecosystem - don't worry, I'm sticking around, just in a new capacity.

I’m departing Parity on excellent terms with the leadership team there, and the Parachains-Core team I previously led there is in capable hands. I’m proud of the work we’ve all done together, building this network from an idea to reality, but we still have further to go.

Specifically, I’m founding and building a new team, currently in stealth, and I am remaining a member of the Polkadot Fellowship. This team will be focused on Polkadot and bringing the technology we’ve built to new horizons.

For the last several months I’ve been vocal publicly about the need in Polkadot to decentralize development as we move into what I’ve termed the “2.0 Era”, where independent agents in the ecosystem both collaborate and compete to advance the network. The best way to bring this vision into reality is to be an active participant in shaping it.

[CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT]

The biggest #crypto bull run is coming.

But only the well-prepared will be able to go from $1,000 to $100,000

Don't worry, I've got you covered.

Here are 10 game-changing crypto resources that will help you move from 0 to Hero

A THREAD ⬇️ - Series 1

[Matt Millar @cello2econ]

We can say on first principles that a) financial crisis resulting in Fed printing will occur OR b) US government will default.

Here are the #s: Current US gov Revenue = $3.97 T. Of that $1 T goes to interest payments and $2.4 goes to Soc Sec, Medi-care/caid. 85% of Revenue. It is fair to say that when 100% of Revenue is interest payment Soc Sec and Medi-care/caid it is game over.

Current expenditures are $6.2 T and the deficit over the past 4 months has been almost exclusively Bills (for obvious reasons) paying ~5.25%. We are also rolling over $300 B long term debt per month with a jump of 3.2% on that debt. So...at this rate, by the end of 2025, 100% of gov revenue will go to pay debt, social security, and Medi-care/caid.

QED: there will be a financial crisis before then, probably well before then to drop interest rates back down to zero. Only question is when? My guess is in the next 3 months.

[Seth @seth_fin]

🌱🌱 Bookmark this chart for later. #BTC

Blue SP500
Orange Bitcoin
Yellow Global M2 ( Total Money Supply )

Do you see how well they correlate? Global M2 is the driver of all Stock market. Assets like Bitcoin drives by M2.

4 Year Cycle of #Bitcoin is still intact. But how high we go up or how deep we pullback is dependent of Global liquidity stream.

Global M2 will increase again. How do I know that? Open a book on Central Bank policy and you will know it too.

[Taiki Maeda @TaikiMaeda2]

The $CANTO Bull Case 📈

I CANTO believe I'm writing about this in Sept 2023...

But let me lay out why I think Canto can ride the tokenized-treasuries (RWA) narrative and put in new all-time highs in TVL and price.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

I don’t read the legacy media propaganda much anymore. It’s a waste of time and a sadness generator.

Just get my news from X – much more immediate, has actual world-class subject matter experts and tons of humor.

Sooo much better!

[Emperor Osmo 🐂 🎯 @Flowslikeosmo]

#Binance has invested in a total of 22 protocols this year.

These investments cover various sectors, including DeFi, Infrastructure, Gaming, L3s, and Interoperability.

Here's a full list of them and how to find them. ⬇️
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🔖Bookmark this Tweet to access this information easily in the future.

1. @pendle_fi

Leaders in tokenized yield and RWAs.
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2. @DelphinusLab

Building infrastructure for applications SDKs based on ZKWasm virtual machine.
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3. @Helio_Money

Helio Protocol is an open-source liquidity protocol built on the BNB Chain, offering borrowing and yield opportunities for a BNB-backed asset class known as "Destablecoins"
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4. @CurveFinance

Curve is the largest stable swap and second-largest DEX, focusing on stableswaps, ensuring minimal fees and slippage.
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5. @kinzafinance

Kinza is building the next-gen lending protocol on BNB Chain, focusing on real yield with a ve(3,3) tokenomics model.
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6. @alt_layer

AltLayer provides a user-friendly Rollups-as-a-Service dashboard built on top of its core network called Beacon Layer.

This dashboard enables the creation of customized rollups with fraud/zk proofs, ensuring high-speed performance.
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7. @KiloEx_perp

Kilo is building a Perp DEX focusing on risk management and capital efficiency.

They offer lightning-fast trades and an intuitive experience with a wide range of trading pairs. LPs get risk-neutral positions and LP-friendly solutions.
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8. @SleeplessAI_Lab

Sleepless AI is a virtual companion game powered by AI technology. This gaming platform makes use of AIGC and LLMs to deliver:

- Immersive story-based gameplay.
- Dynamic interactions with characters.

Currently, the team behind Sleepless AI is developing three games. the first @HIMAIBF, is an Otome game that allows players to have a virtual boyfriend.

Key features of HIM include:

- Unique SBT characters.
- Immutability and storage on the blockchain.
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9. @RDNTCapital

Radiant is building the first omnichain money market, allowing users to deposit and borrow across various chains.

A migration to Ethereum is in the works.
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10. @XterioGames

Xterio is a free-to-play game publisher combining traditional gaming with web3 to give users a rich experience.
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11. @Web3Go

Web3Go is building a data and intelligence network to expand visualization and collaborative analysis of on-chain data with their three products Analytix, Reiki, and Rye Alpha.
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12. @Neutron_org

Neutron is a cross-chain Cosmwasm-enabled-contracting blockchain.
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13. @zkPass

zkPass is a privacy-preserving decentralized identity verification solution for Web3. It utilizes MPC and ZKP technologies to securely validate private data without disclosure or upload.

Users can privately validate various data types in applications like decentralized identity passes, DeFi lending protocols, and healthcare data marketplaces.
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14. @dappOS_com

DappOS simplifies the user experience with crypto infrastructures. It solves issues with web3 accounts and dApp workflows by providing a middle layer, automating workflow execution.
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15. @Bracket_Labs_

Bracket Labs is building leveraged structured products on-chain. They aim to enhance usability through simple interfaces and innovative, adaptive pricing.

Recently, Bracket Labs launched https://t.co/yrfafTEAEZ, a platform designed to assist traders in swiftly capitalizing on market volatility, regardless of whether the market is trending or moving sideways.
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16. @kryptoskatt

Kryptoskatt simplifies Web3 finance. It offers accounting, portfolio management, tax reporting, and expert assistance for global cryptocurrency users.
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17. @fusionistio

Fusionist is a blockchain gaming company that develops high-quality Web3 games and uses collectible NFTs.

Their scalable multi-gaming ecosystem, built on Unity, offers a trilogy of sci-fi games combining management simulation, tactical RPG, and strategic 4X genres.
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18. @playbuxco

Playbux has built an e-commerce metaverse platform on the BNB chain.

Users shop, earn cash back, and enjoy seamless integration of features like Shop & Earn, virtual communities, blockchain services, and DeFi platforms
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19. GOMBLE

A blockchain-based game developer that is an affiliate of South Korean casual mobile game publisher 111Percent.
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20. @PolyhedraZK

PolyHedra is an infrastructure for Web3 Interoperability that integrates advanced ZK proof systems. It provides a range of infrastructure solutions, including:

- zkBridge: A solution for transferring assets between web2 and web3 systems.
- zkDID: A decentralized identity solution based on zero-knowledge proofs.
- ParaPlonk: A scalability solution that leverages a distributed proof generation network to enhance ZK rollups.
- Highly scalable middlewares, such as ZK-NFT containers, offer a design space for Web3 applications.
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21. @GOPAX_kr

GOPAX is a reputable South Korean central exchange operated by Streamy Co., Ltd.
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22. @0xfilswan

FilSwan has built one of the first L3s. It aims to simplify the integration of data, computing, storage, CDN, and payment for Web3 projects.

It offers a suite for web3 developers to seamlessly integrate decentralized storage, edge computing, and payment across multiple chains.
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Here's how you find this data.📊

- Go to @tokenterminal
- Select Fundraises
- Sort by Lead Investors

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

ChatGPT can now browse the internet to provide you with current and authoritative information, complete with direct links to sources. It is no longer limited to data before September 2021.

[Sergey Nazarov @SergeyNazarov]

CCIP is the only cross-chain infrastructure that provides the 5th level of cross-chain security, utilizing multiple decentralized oracle networks and a risk management network.

Chainlink has created over 1000 oracle networks securing real value on production and enabling over $8.5 Trillion in transactional value. Chainlink’s ability to generate multiple secure networks is what allows each CCIP Lane to be composed of multiple networks, reaching this 5th level of cross-chain security.

This is in stark contrast to other solutions that are between level 1 or 2, relying on one key holder to secure one or multiple nodes they control, or the few systems at level 3, where all transactions are passed through a single network that can’t scale to properly secure or process all cross-chain transactions.

In order to create all the cross-chain connections that power both public chain DeFi and private chain banking, you need to create multiple independent networks and offer a constantly evolving risk management layer to adapt to changing conditions.

[Phil Gara @phillipgara]

Interesting @sequoia piece on AI and the GPU cycle - while high performance GPUs are currently in short supply, consistent demand may become even more important in '24. Thankfully there some really interesting spatial web vertical GPU compute applications. https://t.co/JNJAp6uhlg