Ahab

Interests include: Stocks, political futures trading, history and getting blocked for telling you the truth about your opinions.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@GaetenD @SSGamblers I think he’s more valuable as the swing vote. Actually switching parties removes the leverage and attention that would accompany that.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@Talophex @GaetenD For sure. I have some there. Hopefully will be eating good this Thanksgiving with the way things have been heading.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@BrianNorgard What a story of heroism. As a younger member of the chapter, it’s heartening to hear that we came together during that difficult period. Ever true.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@eigenrobot 30 now. Feel it pretty viscerally, although I dont have a complete recollection of precise events. Got pulled out of a DC area elementary school.
Dad had just stopped working at the Pentagon a few weeks before, so people were calling the house about his whereabouts.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@taobanker The issue with Wendy’s is that their core customer base is people like my Dad who view the rest. nostalgically. Anyone younger is going to go to MCD, BK, Fiveguys, ShakeShack, etc. The stores are never nice. Feels like a cultural artifact of times gone by.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@mindinpanic @Polymarket 100%, a finalized permanent deal happened already per Polymarket

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@HoldenWalker99 @HorsemanCountry @realDonaldTrump @fivebelow As much as the Fannie Freddie saga remains ever intriguing (and profitable on the swings), one has to wonder about Trump’s seriousness about an offering. The political and economic circumstances of these first 2 yrs of his second term have been propitious - if not now, when..?

[Ahab @AhabValue]

My mother who travels every other week is going to have a much higher income need in retirement from her portfolio, than my grandmother who mostly is content to read multiple books a week and travels sparingly. This subject is called ‘personal’ finance for a reason.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

As with a lot of things, the # depends on personal circumstances and taste. If you are mass affluent, relatively young and have kids, maybe this amount isn’t enough to permanently quit the rat race. If you are early 50’s DINKs without expensive taste, it’s likely more than fine.

[Patrick Heizer @PatrickHeizer]

If you think you need $3-5 million dollars to retire comfortably, you are a hyperconsumer with a spending problem.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@patrick_oshag Lived up to its billing as an investing classic.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@CSP_Trading The rules cuck panther comes for us all! Always sell at 90.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

Every so often there are ‘fat pitch’ opportunities in prediction markets. I.e. betting against DOGE cutting the deficit was one such opportunity. Betting against a peace deal has been another. Traders over-indexed to news headlines and discounted practical difficulties to peace.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@Empty_America Where this breeds resentment/maladjustment is when the parents/grandparents are successful but the kids realize they can’t replicate their class position/buying power and have to settle for w-2 work they view as undesirable or float about as aspiring ‘entrepreneurs’

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@Empty_America Depends on security of class position. A boomer/ late gen X with an office park job and a mortgage has often done quite well if they played their cards right. Some families have escape velocity and are upgrading their class position. But oft their kids still need to work for now

[Ahab @AhabValue]

The assumption that everyone is holding the same asset, in the same composition, in the same amount is a severely flawed one. And even if it were true, that would be even more so a reason to index and not own rental real estate or any other asset that underperforms the S&P.

[The Real Estate God @TheRealEstateG6]

What people don't understand about the S&P is that every single person in the country who has money is also invested in it

When your money goes up 15%, so does everyone else's

You gained zero relative wealth. You need to outperform the S&P if you want to actually get ahead

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@Larryjamieson_ I actually thought it might happen during these 4 years. But the number of competing priorities of this administration and how quickly attention shifts to the issue du jour, likely means the clock runs out. No meaningful political will exists to dive deep on GSE reform.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@rubicon59 I hope they don’t destroy it. Because an outcome where the legacy common does well, is also an outcome where my preferreds are at least money good. That being said, common shares were a better risk-reward at a buck.

[Ahab @AhabValue]

@GaetenD I don’t think you are being paranoid. We have seen Polymarket struggle with resolving ambiguous outcomes and a very close race could at best tie your money up for weeks or months or at worst cause you to lose it all despite a correct prediction of how the vote will go

[Law Giraffe @TheLawGiraffe]

@MrFamilyOffice Depends what you’re paying. Issue is that a lot of businesses aren’t willing to pay people the money required for people to overlook work-life balance. Median pay won’t cut it.

The idea that there should be an automatic commitment to somebody else’s businesses is wrong.