@robin_j_brooks@RealDollarValue I think the questions are 1. Can reserves can outlast the Hormuz closure. And 2. Is Chinas drawdown in imports because they’re pulling reserves or already demand destruction. If China jumps back into the market prices will spike. If not markets can ride this out awhile
@robin_j_brooks@EnergyRealist25 True, but even the most optimistic negotiations last week said 30 days to bring Hormuz traffic to normal. But my point is you said in your Brookings article that prices could very well spike quickly.
@robin_j_brooks@EnergyRealist25 Your words in Brookings: “oil prices could rise substantially further if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen by the end of June.” … “temporary buffers will be exhausted, the market price could rise to nearly $150”. June is out the window, and $150 sounds like a new high!
@DD922109954246@MichaelPBento The futures chain is pricing that in. Prices before the war started were ~$65. Futures show prices above $75 through the end of the year.
@Rory_Johnston If all the oil exporting countries bordering the Gulf are charging a fee for ships to export their oil, isn’t that just a tax on themselves?
@mattyglesias I have a theory that this is basically uncertainty limiting investment. People are scared to buy a thing they intend to use in the future because they have no idea what will happen. Think COVID scenario not Ukraine. Eventually people will have to buy and prices will spike
@ForecasterEnten People with hats that say “I approve of Donald Trump” unanimously approve of Donald Trump. Sounds like you’ve got some selection bias here.
@ESPN_BillC Should your model consider a guy like Rocco Becht “returning production” given that he’s got more starts than just about any QB, and he’s playing with his same HC and OC
@michaeljmcnair@CatoInstitute@scottlincicome 18T is a made up and objectively wrong number. He’s just lying. “Hes so smart for lying and framing the narrative” is synchophantic