It's time to build mega data centers. In counties where they're already operational, the picture is uniformly better since 2024:
- More housing
- Higher home values
- Less unemployment
- More job growth
Charts of the Week: https://t.co/7YT2BXvuUu
Martin Casado says capital used to be a lottery ticket, and AI made it a vending machine:
"If I'm training a model and I want it to be good at X, I can create an RL environment of X, or I can go pay someone to answer questions for X, and I can turn capital into being good at that X."
"The problem is you don't know what gets worse... Let's say you put in $10 to do this. I don't know if you get $9 back on the other side of that."
"What we've never been able to do in the history of this industry is put in $10 and get anything back."
"It was literally put in $10, engineer, engineer, engineer, wait two years, probably screw stuff up, it'll probably fail. But maybe on the other side you'll have a product you can monetize."
"Now it really is $10 in and then some amount out, pretty directly."
@martin_casado w/ @sophiadew and @theojaffee on MTS
It's time to build mega data centers. In counties where they're already operational, the picture is uniformly better since 2024:
- More housing
- Higher home values
- Less unemployment
- More job growth
Charts of the Week: https://t.co/7YT2BXvuUu
Martin Casado says Cursor's founders spend 30-40% of their time on hiring and culture, and that focus is how they iterate so fast:
"A lot of these AI companies that I work with are so research-heavy. If you're not working on a new model architecture, it's kind of hard to actually interest the core teams."
"They always kept the main thing the main thing, which is changing how you write software. They believed fundamentally it was a product problem... The model's very, very important, but it was a product problem."
"There's actually not a lot of companies that are actually focused on product... There's a lot of research companies... But they were like, 'We are a product company.' And I think that's actually a key differentiator in this era."
@martin_casado w/ @sophiadew and @theojaffee on MTS
There's a $7 trillion pile of unpaid invoices held by US nonfinancial businesses.
Full piece on how Stuut is building the solution: https://t.co/UNuQWCjRQY
.@PalmerLuckey says every generation fights the new thing, and no generation fights to bring the old one back:
"People are saying, 'Oh my God, AI is gonna ruin everything.' How many people said the same thing about automated manufacturing? The reality is that it actually made cars from a plaything for the rich into something that anybody can do."
"There were artists who believed that photography would kill painting, art, and illustration. And of course, it didn't do those things. It actually enhanced them, and it created its own new art form."
"I feel like we're unfortunately in one of those swings where everyone is questioning whether technology will make our future better. I think it's especially unfortunate because we're on the precipice of so many things that have been scarce becoming unscarce."
Palmer Luckey w/ Tetsuro Miyatake, Offtopic Podcast (2025)
Inferact CEO Simon Mo says open and closed models are converging. The moat is environment:
"What really differentiates open-weight models from closed-weight models? In the end, there's not much differentiation. It's more about the distribution strategy and go-to-market strategy. Capability-wise, I don't really see a big gap, not even today."
"One of the most important parts is just the data. It's about who gets what data, and then what are the environments you are building to let the model improve on itself."
"For Moonshot, they have built some of the best environments for front-end coding... the ability for this model to code and then see what the rendered code is, and then continue looping in this iterative process."
"Now, this is about their environment to improve the model. It's not about just source data. It's not about where they get the data from. Rather, it's who can build the best environment and who can make the most optimization and algorithmic choices to leverage all this learning from this environment."
"The next year is all gonna be about that: how open-weight model labs are differentiating and really getting the model to meet the real world."
https://t.co/OiRH8fXarb
@simon_mo_
The Democrats made a huge mistake letting themselves become the party of pronouns and land acknowledgements. They should just ditch that stuff entirely. Especially since it doesn't actually do any good.
The entire concept of a SAFE is wild
Like the fact that investors will give $10M to an unproven 21 year old who can barely drink
With near zero investor rights besides a pro rata. Just a “trust me bro”
The capital markets of SF are truly amazing
Introducing Grok Bot, now in early beta.
Bots are AI teammates that do real work for you. They sign in to your tools, use them just like you do, and come back with finished work.
Our 26 minute chat with @steipete. Enjoy!
Timestamps:
00:00 - Building Software With AI Agents
03:17 - How Peter Steinberger Uses AI Agents
04:59 - The Problem With AI-Generated Content
07:01 - Why Always Saying 'Yes' is an Issue
09:10 - Building OpenClaw as an Open-Source Project
12:10 - Why Open Source Matters More Now
13:19 - How OpenClaw Went Viral
18:12 - The Cost of OpenClaw’s Success
22:30 - Building Products You Actually Enjoy
24:12 - The Future of OpenClaw & Agentic Software
ONE CHART THAT EXPLAINS THE CHIP BOOM
AI is producing noise on every dimension, but one clear thing is is that estimates of future spending just keeps rising. In the last year, expected hyperscaler CAPEX for 2027 and 2028 has more than doubled.