AsaBale

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@elvermo @tijd Refiners net ~$80/bbl. After $26 freight, ~$55 left. Freight = 32% of crack spread, 15% of terminal diesel price. When refiners print money, they pay shipowners tens of $. This is profit redistribution, not margin compression — nowhere near refinery break-even.

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@wisdomandboats Refiners net ~$80/bbl. After $26 freight, ~$55 left. Freight = 32% of crack spread, 15% of terminal diesel price. When refiners print money, they pay shipowners tens of $. This is profit redistribution, not margin compression — nowhere near refinery break-even.

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@AndersSjastad where's 601872

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@christankerfund Refiners net ~$80/bbl. After $26 freight, ~$55 left. Freight = 32% of crack spread, 15% of terminal diesel price. When refiners print money, they pay shipowners tens of $. This is profit redistribution, not margin compression — nowhere near refinery break-even.

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@PotenTankers Refiners net ~$80/bbl. After $26 freight, ~$55 left. Freight = 32% of crack spread, 15% of terminal diesel price. When refiners print money, they pay shipowners tens of $. This is profit redistribution, not margin compression — nowhere near refinery break-even.

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@WindwardAI Refiners net ~$80/bbl. After $26 freight, ~$55 left. Freight = 32% of crack spread, 15% of terminal diesel price. When refiners print money, they pay shipowners tens of $. This is profit redistribution, not margin compression — nowhere near refinery break-even.

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@rurunlogistics @WindwardAI 炼厂每桶净赚约 80，付掉 26 运��还剩 55。运费占裂解差 32%、占终端柴油价 15%。炼厂赚疯了的时候给船东几十美金，这就是产业链利润的再分配，不是挤压——离炼厂的经济极限远着呢。

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@ProVnone @ed_fin With the existing capacity, this will take 2 years

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@ProVnone @ed_fin True, the rates look strong again — but the real longer-term driver might be the inevitable inventory replenishment. Global stocks have been drawn hard during the disruptions, and China still has room (and eventual need) to restock.

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@wisdomandboats Could you please elaborate in more detail? For example, how do you use vessel positions / AIS tracking to spot these patterns and anticipate rate moves?

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@christankerfund Why not focus on the post-war restocking cycle and the shortage of available tanker capacity instead?

The bigger question is not just “Will the SOH reopen?” — it’s “How many VLCCs will be needed once countries start rebuilding inventories?”

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@wisdomandboats So you see Iran’s sanctions/blacklist on these vessels as a net positive for tanker rates?

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@AndersSjastad Too conservative, it should at least hit 500.

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@AndersSjastad hey

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@DryBulkETF TO THE MOON

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@EddieLovoQua @aeberman12 Have you ever been to China?

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@TroyForge @steve_hanke @maneco1964 If there's money to be made, only an idiot would pass it up

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@finkd

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@finkd

[AsaBale @AsaBale2]

@IrnaEnglish Every country has legitimate security concerns, but freedom of commercial navigation is also vital to global stability. I hope all parties choose diplomacy over escalation and keep the Strait open for peaceful international trade.