CharlieFromNOVA

Political Science/International Relations Kind of Guy. Debate/MUN and terminally online.

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@tenminutecrafts Yeah forecasters have CO-03 and perhaps CO-05 so red for some reason

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@hencexox @DjsokeSpeaking It's possible, Warner is generally strong in the south of Virginia, did better than Kaine 2018 there. The only reason he did worse than Kaine in the district is turnout differentials, which probably wont be an issue here

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@DjsokeSpeaking If this district is even within 4% Wittman is toast

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@JoeNC05 @SunBeltPolitics I think the hopium comes from it being the third most African American seat in the state with a lot of rural African Americans who may be motivated from the striking down of the VRA sections. Do I buy it? Not really

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@_fat_ugly_rat_ I mean this is bad, but it also means there probably wont be some super evil mega bill passed by the GOP during lame duck

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@LookingRedi @bluedogiowan Garcia and Pulido could definitely win in 2028, people forget it’s hard to take down incumbents in the valley.

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@Shapiromentum2 Alaska lol. They are so cooked there because of drop off. And RCV allows a dem to even get like 10% of the vote, which they usually do. So if he receives 10% from each, that is like 6% of the vote extra, not including dropoff

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@DumpTrump_45 @n_salter7777 @DakotaAHensley The path to winning Iowa required Ernst not to retire imo

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@MaxMaaxMaaax @drunkelections GOP got so lucky in Iowa. NC and GA would have been triaged already if Ernst was still in the race

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@drunkelections But governor is probably gonna turn out fine so it was the right choice

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@DeliaRamirezFan Kean was probably the easiest one. Ungodly amount of goodwill lost over the summer after disappearing, went from a fairly alright overperformer to an ass incumbent

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@NewEnglandDLM To be fair, if Beshear has ambitions why would he want that?

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@USA_Polling This is gonna be Washington senate 2022 polling 2.0

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@fanofmastriano @bdquinn Yes but it garnered enough attention for the dem candidate to raise enough money to run TV ads, which will matter

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@tencor_7144 I find this race fascinating because while Talarico may not win, I'm starting to think Dems may end up with a statewide office after all, could make an interesting map of what a potential win statewide in TX looks like for a dem (if Talarico doesn't pull it off)

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@Luigiiscringe @SenGoldBars Literally this. John’s overperformance in polls has largely been confusion. Although, a better attack would be contrasting them rather than just saying “they’re not the same!”

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@Faj1791 @clusterbitch_ Republicans nominate racists during dem presidential midterms, we had gems such as Blake Masters, so still skeptical

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@WayneG1939 This is gonna be WandaVision 2.0, people are expecting a movie level threat for a tv show

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@MappingFL Amazing they only bring up such concerns with a democratic county

[CharlieFromNOVA @Charlie4UVA]

@J_fassler @_fat_ugly_rat_ I don't know for Maine though to be honest. I feel like nationalizing Maine would help Jackson if anything, considering a localized race favors Collins due to her local record