Cyril Castelli

Founder Rcube & Rcube AM
We provide global macro research and investment strategies to the largest global macro hedge funds, pension funds & family offices

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

Combination of extreme equity bullishness and our SPX model most extreme negative forward return signal = maximum danger

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

@jessefelder @ECantoni @Peter_Atwater @jtepper2 @hmeisler @TeddyVallee @NorthmanTrader @TommyThornton @McClellanOsc @todd_harrison @NuitSeraCalme @sentimentrader @Valuetrap13 @LukeGromen @lisaabramowicz1 @HayekAndKeynes @Sunchartist @SoberLook @htsfhickey @Greenbackd @spomboy @epomboy @profgalloway @evan_lorenz @WhatILearnedTW @movement_cap @CapitalObserver @macrodidact @MarkYusko @creditmacro @hedgopia @TN @CGrantWSJ @MarkHar13514700 @RaoulGMI @NautilusCap @Not_Jim_Cramer @hussmanjp Merci Jesse
happy thanksgiving from Paris

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

The #vix miss-pricing, according to its fundamentals, is the largest ever...

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

US retail sector close from downside breakout, yield curve crashing, economic momentum weakening=>more relative weakness for consumer sector

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

US banks keep tightening lending standards for CRE loans. The job market is usually impacted 2yrs later (88,98,05,2015)

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

Thank you @realvision. Such a fantastic platform to share views and reasoning in a perfect format. Rcube 22 min itw on current market views.

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

US corp debt service ratio has significantly deteriorated despite little rise in prime lending rates. US small biz ICR is alarmingly weak

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

@Market_Time sure. but i doubt it will change radically hje overall picture. interested in receiving what you ll find. tx

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

@Market_Time tx. it looks like the financing gap reported by the fed. If the case it lacks net equity issuance and you should normalize it by GDP

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

The last 12 months US high yield spreads narrowing cannot be justified by fundamentals.

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

Speculators have already significantly reduced their positioning on the "reflation" trade.

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

Eurozone inflation surprises at historical highs. A warning signal for equities in the past (average annualized expected returns: -19%)

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

Chinese companies are aggressively deleveraging. China credit creation = 80% of World's total. This is another warning for risky assets.

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

Surge in global #inflation surprises is a major warning for risky assets. Another headwind in the long list of under-priced risks.

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

Relative IP trends also suggest that European long end rates are too low vs. US treasuries. QE fully priced in at current levels of spreads

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

EU unemployment falling faster than in the US, implies that Bunds are extremely expensive vs Treasuries at current levels

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

Global Cyclicals relative performance suggest that EM equities will outperform DM & in particular US equities this year.

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

Relative US/Japan monetary base momentum explains #USDJPY with a lead, current consolidation will not last long. 140 likely this year

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

@BuffyBrownose @jessefelder shares buybacks represent 35% of cashflows= balance sheet deterioration

[Cyril Castelli @CyrilRcube]

US corporate leverage keeps rising. US high yield spreads have narrowed too much, not pricing balance sheet health deterioration.