Daniel Jones

[Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas @tarcisiogdf]

A hora de fazer a diferença chegou! Vote no nosso time:

Para Senador:
André do Prado 2️⃣2️⃣2️⃣✅

Para Senador:
Guilherme Derrite 1️⃣1️⃣1️⃣✅

Para Governador:
Tarcísio 1️⃣0️⃣✅

Para Presidente:
Flávio Bolsonaro 2️⃣2️⃣✅

[FedResearch @FedResearch]

New #FEDSPaper: Bells and Whistles of Nowcasting Models: Which Matter and When? https://t.co/SRwqf80lSA #EconTwitter

[BRPolls 🇧🇷 @brpollsx]

📊 TABELA ELEITORAL – 1° TURNO (02/10) | Intenção de voto dos candidatos à Presidência da República no CENÁRIO ESTIMULADO de 1º TURNO, de acordo com os últimos levantamentos dos institutos de pesquisa.

📌 A próxima atualização da tabela eleitoral de 1º TURNO será feita amanhã (03), após a divulgação de todas as novas pesquisas eleitorais.

[EleicaoBR @Eleicao_BR]

🗳️ Domingo, a partir das 17h, o EleiçãoBR terá apuração ao vivo: projeção do resultado do 1º turno enquanto o TSE conta os votos.

Nos testes simulados com 2022 e 2018, acertou já com 1% das urnas apuradas: menos de 2 pontos de erro.

Acompanhe no link: https://t.co/yneqdhxlV5

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

wait until you see 2027

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

US Wage INFLATION (re)Accelerating? Yes.

And the already hawkish Fed isn't (yet) highlighting it, but they will

@federalreserve @SecScottBessent

[Brent aka Blacklion @BlacklionCTA]

I am missing something and I think it is a deep understanding of AI CAPEX because this week we had the Fed and BOJ raise and the SOFR yield curve STEEPENED into fall 2027.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran says diplomatic efforts are underway to return to the Islamabad MoU between Tehran and Washington, as mediators push to revive the agreement

Iranian Interior Ministry spokesperson Ali Zeynivand says Tehran only needs the U.S. to fulfill its commitments under the MoU, which he says was approved by Iran’s top leadership.

With a little optimism and the midterms coming up, it's tempting to think Trump may consider listening closely to what Iran has to say once again.

Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Mhedi

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

In 2026, the Fed revised down its unemployment rate forecast 0.2ppt to 4.1%. Core PCE was revised up 0.1ppt to 3.4%. The Fed revised up neutral rates by one-tenth. Plugging this into a Taylor Rule type equation, it implies an upward revision of just over 0.5ppt to the policy rate (or another two hikes). The Fed changed by penciling in just one more hike, somewhat dovish.

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

Ok thats terrifying

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Not particularly difficult to see what’s dictating the Fed right now.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Hormuz oil flow continue to climb, now with reports of daytime transits.

The 7-day average of oil transit flow through Hormuz rose to nearly 12 MMbpd as of Sunday, easily the fastest pace since the post-MOU June-July breakout—and this time there's virtually no Iranian crude.

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

According to my source, the meeting in Oman is expected to be postponed at Saudi Arabia’s request following the attacks on the pipelines.

[Alpha_Ex_LLC @Alpha_Ex_LLC]

I’m a big fan of the Fed “Near Term Forward Spread.” It’s the 3m bill rate, 18 months forward, minus the 3m bill rate. Currently just about 100bps.

Does this tell the market where the Fed intends to go or is it, conversely, the market guiding the Fed? The “hall of mirrors” component that is a component of debate about forward guidance is fascinating.

Post the SVB collapse in Mar’23, the NTFS got to as low as -200bps. That’s a lot of anticipated easing! This was the market way ahead of the Fed and the Fed didn’t follow.

That episode teaches us a good deal about how bond market sell-offs and rallies are sometimes very interconnected.

In the case of SVB:

- a global pandemic requires a policy response that, by 2021, is leading to tremendous government sponsored liquidity, leading to tremendous speculative VC funding
- SVB experiences massive growth using a niche model to facilitate deposits for VCs
- this growth comes amidst the lowest rates on record
-SVB buys agency MBS at yields around 1.7%. It is simultaneously buying duration at negative real yields and selling rate vol at the thinnest level of vol.
- The Fed’s tightening cycle brings rates and rate volatility up across the curve
-SVB’s portfolio sees significant duration extension and huge MTM losses
-The collapse, which causes the Fed to invoke 13(3) “exigent circumstances”, leads to an enormous rally in 2’s.

The force of the Covid bond market rally - and the sky-high prices paid for UST and MBS left entities like SVB vulnerable to the 2022 bond market sell-off.

https://t.co/opTIJlopUX

[LVision @LVision_Trading]

HORMUZ CRUDE OIL TRANSITS SUMMARY 29 Aug - 4 Sep | 8.1mbd 7d average, 10 documented outbounds, 3 suspects, 18 STS based transits

KEY INSIGHTS:
▪️76% of pre war level Hormuz-Yanbu-ADCOP CRUDE OIL flows, ~4-5mbd deficit
▪️This week's increase in PG crude flows is largely driven by Saudi
▪️The gap between my 8.1mbd and @phileeppos ~6.5mbd crude volumes is partially due to timing, but also due to unidentified donors: IF the "?" vessel does not switch on AIS crossing GoO line, she will not appear in GoO count. This week there were 5 VLCCs that likely sneaked out.
▪️Saudi Red Sea bypass also increased from 2.7 to 3.4mbd, based on @phileeppos data

This analysis is done for my personal trading strategy, I assume everyone does their own homework and chooses what to believe in.

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

Putin is preparing a wave of assassination attempts around Europe with the main target being Germany according to European intelligence.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

U.S. Energy Secretary: The average daily oil transit level through the Strait of Hormuz is 9 million barrels of oil

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

There is much confusion around the FOMC Sep decision.

Things are pretty simple. With real final sales to the private sector running at 4%, Fed is long due resuming hikes.

If they decide to skip again, it will be a policy mistake and long rates will make it known.

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Markets Weekly August 29, 2026

September Hike Coming

https://t.co/X16YpdjgUT

[Brian McCarthy @briangobosox]

In the Macrolens: Bessent Pokes the Fed

Today's move by Treasury is small in substance but huge in symbolism: Bessent is nosing into the Fed's territory.

https://t.co/huU8YBLZ3R via @YouTube