@1967ussliberty@HugoPhilion@DoctorXrp101@tether@USDT0_to@FlareNetworks exactly.. they don't have any real business they don't sell anything, no one pays them for anything and they need to pay whole team and the office and their lifestyle in Dubai this is what is FLR token created for to fund all above not to make investors money
@CommunityFlare@Firelightfi@intotheblock@FlareNetworks ok, so just a transaction fee (which is really low on Flare), anything else? I am trying to understand what value/impact will XRP staking will bring to the investors. If Flare token will end up only for fees it's not enough. Inflation seems to be bigger than feess burned.
@bnachris1@TJScheetz@FlareNetworks there is no space for scarcity as FLR is inflation token they are just burning unclaimed inflation 🤷♂️ even if it's not 2B out of 100B is just peanuts
You are oblivious. Where to you get this nonsense from? Do you realize that this thinking is going to get you relegated to a minor ghost chain? This is how it's going to play out, I'll spell it out for you and the rest of maxis:
1. Adoption of Bitcoin will occur at the corporate and nation state level. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
2. Branding and promotion will be ubiquitous & international, accepted as a serious asset class. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
3. Fund managers and pensions will accept it in their portfolios, 401ks will have it via passive flows. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
4. The value will increase to the millions. This is awesome right! The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
5. Almost all activity will have to be relegated off chain to layer 2s and custodial solutions (ETF) etc. Middle men will dominate and self custody will be for the few, no need to learn! The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
6. The security budget will continue to diminish at a logarithmic rate while adoption reaches the S-curve plateau. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
7. Foreign adversaries will notice how dependent the financial economy of the US is on Bitcoin. Hash rate wars will begin for equipment, energy, and fab space. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
8. Mining pools will become geopolitical as it becomes clear that the stratum can bias transaction ordering favoring multi billions in L1 settlement. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
9. The 51% attacks will begin, not to reorder the chain but to temporarily rock markets for arbitragers and shorts. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
10. The political and financial world begins in earnest to come up with solutions to address the volatility, security budget, and hardware options. Suddenly everyone's retirement and investments are at risk, all solutions are on the table. The VASPs are ordered in front of the President and Congress. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
11. It becomes clear that the only way to make forward progress is to hard fork the chain to bias domestic ASIC (TEEs), maybe even quantum compute protections. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
12. It becomes clear that the issuance schedule and rate of purchasing power appreciation is insufficient to provide the hashing power necessary to secure the network. Adversaries have a sufficient rate to periodically rock markets. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
13. Mass propaganda is issued by governments and fund managers that forking the code is in the best interest of national security. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
14. The fund managers, custodians, and pensions that are holding the vast majority of people's Bitcoin agree to coordinate with the VASPs that the hard fork is essential. It is agreed to change the issuance rate and total supply to subsidize miners and security. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
15. Hardcore bitcoiners are furious, shake their fists to the heavens decrying to direction of the normies because they're not Mises worshippers and don't understand hard money. No one gives a shit and the fork happens. The halvings will continue. Keep running your node.
16. You, and a bunch of other rebels relegated to Tatooine keep running the old code with the 21 million limit but no one gives a shit. Not the VASPs to swap to $ pay your bills & taxes. Maybe Iran will keep running the old code.
17. Check make stupid.
WARNING: BTC is vulnerable to a bank run! ⚠️
If a panic sets in; the vast majority of 33M on-chain users will not be able to exit
The queue would in fact be 1.82 months long!
Potentially even triggering a death spiral, annihilating investors; BTC's code & math do not lie: 🧵
All of these numbers can be independently verified, by looking at the BTC source code on your own full node!
The Math: 🎓
The figure for on-chain BTC holders was taken from @glassnode's analysis on March 2023
The TPS calculation is based on Max Theoretical TPS: (Block size (1.66MB)/Transaction size (374B)) / Block time (10M) = TPS (7.75)
We use the P2PKH TX format with 2 inputs & 2 outputs, to better represent an "average user"
Even though Segwit allows for 4MB blocks this cannot all be filled with TXs, historically the largest BTC block filled with TXs was 1.66MB so we will use that number
(1740636.16/374) / 600 = 7.75 TPS (rounding down to 7 as BTC cannot execute partial TXs)
7x60 (minutes) = 420x60 (hours) = 25200x24 (Days) = 604,800x30 (Months) = 18,144,000 (Monthly TXs)
33000000 (On-chain Users) / 18,144,000 (Monthly TXs) = 1.818 (months)
The Reality: 💀
These are all extremely conservative estimates, as they assume zero network activity outside of these on-chain users exiting...
It is important to understand that the BTC network cannot actually support month-long queues, it cannot even support week-long queues
In reality, TXs would get stuck & eventually get dropped entirely (TXs drop after 3 days)
Making it entirely impossible for smaller parties to exit, as only parties paying thousands of dollars for fees will get their TXs cleared in such a scenario (fee spike), such as large custodians & banks, as the capacity is finite, no matter how much people pay
That is why self-custody over BTC is completely unsafe & we should be advising people against it!
This will also only get worse as BTC surges in popularity, as most have no idea how deeply flawed BTC really is
Death Spiral: 🌪
This type of panic would certainly also have a relationship with the price of BTC
As a price drop would lead to a drop in the hash rate, as some miners would no longer be profitable, forcing them to shut down
However, due to how the difficulty adjustment algorithm works; a 2-week readjustment period (measured in block time)
A sudden drop in hash rate can severely affect the speed & capacity of the network, if half the miners left, for instance, block time would also drop in half & the readjustment period could take up to a month!
Causing the queue to be over 3 months long, deepening the panic & causing the price to crash even more which in turn causes more miners to shut down, which would slow down the chain even more, causing the price to crash & even more miners shutting down, etc: a vicious cycle
BTC's security budget is also unsustainable & will likely run out within the decade, something I have covered in far more depth elsewhere. This means that we have a definitive timeline, as a security budget crisis is very likely to trigger the death spiral scenario I have described here, that is if it does not happen before that
L2s also offer zero solutions against this crisis from playing out, as "true BTC L2s" still require some form of interaction with the base layer in the form of an on-chain TX for self-custody
Pure Greed: 🤑
There are literally ZERO use cases that can be supported by 7 TPS, making BTC by definition purely speculative. Unable to effect any real change in the world by virtue of it literally being useless
For reference; FedWire & Chips on average do around 12 TPS (inter-bank settlement), PayPal does 200 (online payment), while VISA & Mastercard average at around 5k TPS (retail)
All while BTC's crypto competitors can exceed 10k TPS, or even 500k TPS in some cases, all without sacrificing decentralization! There is no excuse anymore for keeping the limit this low, something I have covered extensively elsewhere
Conclusion:
Mass self-custody over BTC is a lie, even worse, it is a dangerous narrative to promote! The kinder narrative would be to warn people against self-custody on BTC, at least ETH got that right within their L2 paradigm (by promoting centralized solutions)
The only way BTC can be adopted on mass is through centralized custodians & banks. So please do not pretend as if this is "freedom money". All that does is set more people up for absolute disaster when the inevitable collapse comes
To make things even more tragic, this was never the original design, intent & vision for Bitcoin, it was hijacked along the way & completely perverted from its original goals
I love Bitcoin & that is why we must speak out against the horrible monster BTC has become; the antithesis of all that Bitcoin used to stand for. As it was originally intended to be freedom money, "P2P Electronic Cash" as the Bitcoin Whitepaper so boldly stated! That is how far BTC has fallen
Everything people project onto BTC is a lie, as BTC's tech & governance do not match their claims at all
I will not tell you what alternative chains to adopt, as I am no shill, but I can with confidence warn people against BTC & if you insist on still investing in BTC do not self-custody! Personally & professionally as a crypto value investor, I would not touch BTC with a ten-foot pole, as it is clearly a toxic asset
BTC is certainly doomed to collapse, as I see no viable path for change within the necessary timelines, there is, however, still much hope left on the horizon for cryptocurrency as a whole
As Bitcoins original vision now thrives in its children instead! 🕊
In your methodology there are certainly conservatisms but overall I think we can agree that the vast majority of Bitcoin exists on CEXs (from the perspective of investors) and is held custodially. This is especially true of ETF treasuries. In the scenarios you describe for every seller there is a buyer so what would effectively change are the off-chain databases (of the CEX or the ETF manager) to account for change in ownership. One could argue that this would incite a run by long-time holders using self-custody but that is likely a significantly smaller fraction than the calculation suggests. Despite my small critique, I think directionally and from a narrative perspective you are 100% correct in critiquing the vision of bitcoin as a self-custodial instrument for the world. Fortunately we will have fully collateralized versions that do not have counterparty risk coming very soon to the @flarenetwork in the form of F-BTC. The lesson here should be that the code base of Bitcoin needs to change and I fear the social consensus is ossified. This spells future tragedy.
@Frankhrinkanic velmi pekne si to napisal Fero👌 dufam ze ti ti co sa im kvoli MATIC zmenili zivoty aspon podakovali.. CZ a SK krypto scena by bez teba nebola tym cim je teraz. Si velky pan a ja ti prajem nech sa ti este 1000x viac dari 💪
I haven’t really talked about @FlareNetworks
Do my followers hold Flare?
I received Flare airdrops as an $XRP holder
Do you want me to talk about Flare more?