Tony Tong

CTO and Chief AI | Unfazed Tesla Investor

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

First thought-partnering with Grok4 on Tesla's growth potential - terminal valuation prediction $48T in 2040 ($15,000 per share)

* 2013-2019 (Premium EVs): This phase built Tesla's foundation, with stock growth tied to Model S/X launches and proving EV viability. It set the stage for mass scaling, but growth was uneven due to production "hell."

* 2020-2026 (Mass-Market EVs): Current phase emphasizes volume (Model 3/Y ~80% sales) and diversification (energy, FSD). Projections factor in 2025 dips (-27% YTD from politics/competition) but rebound via early Robotaxi (e.g., +9% stock surge post-Austin launch).carboncredits.comreddit.com Transition to autonomy begins here, shifting from cyclical auto revenue to recurring software.

* 2027-2033 (Robotaxi): Explosive if Tesla achieves unsupervised FSD and fleet scale. Valuations explode as margins hit 50-70% (vs. 10-20% EVs). Trajectory: Steady climbs with volatility from regulatory wins/losses.

* 2034-2040 (Optimus): Maturity phase with humanoid bots addressing labor shortages. Growth slows but compounds massively if prior phases succeed. Trajectory: Potential for 10-20x multiples if $5T market captured, but risks like over 100 competitors could cap at low end.

[Brian Chau @brianchau57]

My Experience With the Leaders of the Jensen Coup

At the start of 2025, numerous Washington, D.C. based NGOs began spreading the false rumor that DeepSeek smuggled 50,000 H100 GPUs. Speaking from firsthand experience, organized think tanks, PR firms, and lobbyists aggressively personally attacked anyone merely asking them to provide evidence. Call them the Export Controls Deep State, or if that’s too right-coded for you, use the Obama-administration term “Foreign Policy Blob”.

The same charlatans are attempting a coup on Jensen Huang, the most indispensable CEO to America’s AI success. If we lost Sam, we have Dario. If we lost Dario, we have Demis. Nvidia is singular. The gap between Nvidia and AMD would be wider than the gap between OpenAI and Mistral, Europe’s top AI company whose models don’t rank in the top 40. This is an attempt to derail the most important company for the American AI industry.

The entire coup against Jensen Huang can be halted by asking a single question. What evidence is there that Alice Huang is actually a Chinese spy? The answer, unsurprisingly, is absolutely zero. There is not even the pretense of a factual basis for the claim. “We made it the fuck up, and if you have a problem with that, what are you, pro-China?”

Taking away this obvious falsehood, the coup against Jensen boils down to a celebrity tabloid headline. Moreover, without the entirely fabricated ‘national security relevance’, these tabloid headlines would be at best a weekend story in the New York Post. Another basic question: if there is evidence of ‘national security relevance’, why not charge Jensen? The basic answer: they lack even the evidence to justify a warrant.

During my time in DC, I was advised repeatedly to stay on the good side of the Export Controls Deep State. I was added to many groups for boosting content spreading the 50,000 H100s conspiracy theory. In several groups, I asked whether there was any evidence behind this claim. One group administrator, who was and still is affiliated with Georgetown, explicitly told me to “focus on bolstering the narrative”. I later posted Patel’s pseudo-correction and was subsequently removed from all of these groups.

What you need to understand about the Export Controls Deep State is that they have no incentive to be remotely honest, because they are entirely unaccountable. To this day, they provided zero evidence for their claim. Internet historians later traced the origin of this claim to a tweet by Dylan Patel of Semianalysis. Patel later said they lied about his tweet and that his claim counted legally obtained hardware.

Affiliates of universities and think tanks promote these baseless claims and are taken seriously by the national press. In reality, their theories about Nvidia are as kooky as the guy who shot up Comet Pizza. The reason they succeed is not only because they are unaccountable, but because they constantly use their unaccountability to attack others. There are broader foreign policy implications to these observations about political power, but I will stick to what I witnessed firsthand.

After Trump’s election, his administration began lifting the export control cap. Surprising no one informed about this policy, America widened our lead. Deepseek was closest to catching up to American models in January 2025, literally the moment of peak export controls.

Based on communication with members of the administration, the evidence that a) the export controls were net negative and b) the export controls deep state was acting in bad faith, that as soon as the situation was described accurately, the administration began rolling them back.

Part of this is because many of these NGOs are funded by foundations like Open Philanthropy / Coefficient Giving, who explicitly intend to harm American AI companies because they believe American AI will “cause human extinction”. As a result, the BIS under the Biden administration was used as an informal cudgel against AI companies, both to censor in favor of their worldview, as seen in the Gemini scandal, as well as to backdoor regulation to slow down American AI broadly.

While they love to accuse everyone else of being traitors, the Export Controls Deep State makes Americans poorer and the American military, to the extent they use AI, weaker.

Most of the time, the best you can do is ignore them. They really are unaccountable and the personal retribution isn’t worth the cost. But now, they are leading a coup against the AI industry’s most indispensable man based on lies and tabloid gossip. Everyone should understand that the Export Controls Deep State has never provided any evidence for their claims nor any reason for their word to be trusted.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@gouzhuang748 The board should be fired in a shareholder vote.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@SenWarren You belong to hell, long overdue.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@FirstSquawk It was obviously a well coordinated coup.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@Scobleizer If you don’t own 20% of your company, you don’t love it enough.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@Liillan1 I think this is why Elon feels the need to control at least 20% of the voting power.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@MatthewBerman Software is not dead. It is just more accessible and the business model is changing.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

I want to see more hardcore engineering and less about Jensen's affairs.

[Evaporion @Evaporion]

“To stack or not to stack, that is the question.”

https://t.co/EEdznGu9aG

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@roh1 Happy Diwali!

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

The Economics of Context: Cost-Optimal Prompt Management for Long-Running LLM Agents

https://t.co/gOB9NZ1iXp

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

Context management for long-running AI agents turns out to be a classic operations optimization problem.

Compacting an agent's context is like placing an order: it has a near-fixed overhead. Carrying history is like holding inventory: with prompt caching, every call re-reads it at a small incremental cost.

Balance the two and you get the economic order quantity (EOQ), the square-root formula operations teams have used since 1913:

n* = √(2K / (r·Δ))

K is the cost of one compaction, r the cached-read price, and Δ the tokens added per call.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

The Economics of Context: Cost-Optimal Prompt Management for Long-Running LLM Agents https://t.co/gOB9NZ1iXp

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

The meteoric rise of Anthropic business is a reflection of their laser focus on enterprise productivity market.

[Veee @vikktorrrre]

Dario Amodei: A lot of AI generated videos and images are fake, addictive, and just slop. Anthropic isn't interested in competing in that market.

“Google and OpenAI are fighting it out in consumer. It's existential to both of them.”

“It's existential to OpenAI because that's their whole business. Existential to Google because they have the search business.”

“For enterprise business, there's not really a demand for cats riding donkeys or whatever consumer video people want.”

“If we ever need it, we can just contract a model from someone else.”

“A lot of short-form video is fake, a lot of it's pretty addictive, a lot of it's slop.”

“It's not a part of the market that I'm tripping over myself to get involved in.”

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@TeslaAndDoge It’s great to see new voices and faces.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@McCarthyWasRght @elonmusk @shaunmmaguire @broudsov Complete retard

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@McCarthyWasRght @elonmusk @shaunmmaguire @broudsov People just don’t have a fk brain to themselves. It is possible, but not as easy as it seems. Especially considering moving heat btw a 90C silicon temperature and 50C radiator that maybe hundreds of meters apart.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@elonmusk @shaunmmaguire @broudsov The problem is the temperature the radiator has to operate at.

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

@antigravity @GoogleDeepMind It was abandoned product, right?

[Tony Tong @GoProAI]

Unpriced risk with water cooling in data centers

[Evaporion @Evaporion]

#NVIDIA's newest Vera #Rubin racks are 100% liquid-cooled through copper cold plates. Rising GPU power means more flow, pushing coolant toward the erosion limit. The catch -- that limit comes from plumbing, not cold plate data. Longest relevant test we found: ~1,000 h.

Learn about the water erosion and leakage risk in #datacenters.
https://t.co/YPPnO4Ebhe