Cliff

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@AahanPrometheus The verbiage from this post appears to be the opposite from the chart. Blue line is when NGDP is below the 10 year, no? Looks more attractive to own bonds then. Logically would make sense to own duration when growth weakens. Do I have this right?

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@DannyDayan5 Real rates heading lower while oil and USD rip point to an impending slowdown IMO. Not in the data yet, but Q1 earnings season will be a tell. Iran war going to do the Fed’s job for them re hikes unless we get an imminent off ramp. Otherwise cuts will come but be too late.

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@LukeGromen Most of the relative outperformance coming in the last 6 months... could've said the same thing about tech stocks in '99 or '21

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@CharityHedge He's definitely the most entertaining President of my lifetime. Politics aside there were some hilarious comments in that speech. "I actually like Emmanuel, hard to believe" 😂😂😂

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@DannyDayan5 @RabbiMusk69 Does the tax receipt figure include tariff revenue? Wondering about the sustainability if so.

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@DannyDayan5 Do you even ISDA, bro?!?! @chamath

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@INArteCarloDoss would you walk us through the rough math on the probability calc?

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@INArteCarloDoss 😂😂😂😂

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@junkbondinvest At what point do they look enticing enough to start adding?

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@FinancialArmy_ @omshanti08 It was in the single digits in ‘09 🤦‍♂️

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@FinancialArmy_ @omshanti08 The guy is at a hedge fund dude. No way it’s a 15 year hold…

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@LastBearStandng @BobEUnlimited Any thoughts around the seasonal adjustment factor on ADP? The last two months have been the highest upward seasonal adjustments for sept/oct in the history of the time series. NSA looks demonstrably worse. No conspiracy theory just wondering how you all think about it.

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@WarrenPies @INArteCarloDoss @isaacehalls @OutsizedAlpha

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@TopadoDuran How do you view sequence? Historically layoffs don’t happen until we’re in recession. JOLTS, hiring, temp help, hiring intentions all recessionary and leading. Layoffs historically are the most lagging labor market indicators. Even claims did a poor job leading into ‘08.

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@GavinSBaker who's the author at GS? thanks

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@Geo_papic @DannyDayan5 Nice seeing respectful disagreement. I tend to side w/ @Geo_papic here but he's right, no one knows for sure. Weakness in broader commodities is one data point, which when taken with others, like leading indicators of the labor market, point to soft landing being a longshot IMO

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@DannyDayan5 @Geo_papic It's not just oil though

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@EconBerger @GS_CapSF @AnnaEconomist A burning question is how many of the “temporary” become permanent? I’d think that an employer might be incentivized to call a layoff temporary in the hope that if things turn for the better they could hire back the same employee. Almost like a free call option.

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

@rev_cap Watching this closely... this is the macro risk IMO

[Cliff @HODLntendies]

What we've gotten so far is a global deleveraging event. Recession not getting priced in... yet. Get ready for a rip higher in stocks before things get really interesting.