CPenguin

Trader and game dev

[wesatoshis @we_satoshis]

No phone. No computer. No app.

Just @we_satoshis and @SeedSigner.

Scan your air-gapped signed PSBT straight into the device → it finalizes and broadcasts to your own Bitcoin node.

No Electrum servers. Direct to the network.

Two pieces of hardware. Nothing in between.

[Penguin X @ThePenguinBTC]

Piyasalar neden yükseldi? Cevap 19 yıl sonra basılan bir düğmede.

Piyasalar yükseliyor.

Hem de yavaş yavaş değil, aylardır uyuyan kripto piyasası iki günde uyandı.

Herkes aynı yeri işaret ediyor.

Trump şöyle demiş, SEC böyle açıklamış.

Hepsi doğru ama yüzeyde.

Çünkü bu yükselişi bir açıklama değil, çoğu kişinin okumadığı bir kararın içindeki mekanizma başlattı.

Düğmeye basan el de Trump'ın değil.

Anlatıyorum.

Bitcoin'de fiyat 6 hafta boyunca 60 ile 64 bin arasında yerinde saydı, çünkü para başka yerde kilitliydi.

18 Ağustos günü 30 yıllık ABD tahvil faizi %5.33 ile 19 yılın zirvesine çıktı.

Elinizde 100 bin dolar olsa ve devlet size 30 yıl boyunca her yıl %5.33 kazanç garanti etse, kalkıp riskli bir varlık alır mıydınız?

Kimse almadı.

Peki faiz neden bu kadar yükseldi?

Çünkü alıcı kalmadı.

ABD'ye en çok borç veren ülke Japonya'ydı. Bugün Japonya'da 10 yıllık faiz %2.9 ile 1996'dan beri en yüksek seviyede.

Japon parası artık kendi evinde de kazanıyor ve eve dönüyor.

Çin zaten yıllardır satıyor.

Son 30 yıllık tahvil ihalesi 2001'den beri en yüksek faizle kapandı.

Aynı gün SEC yeni kural taslağını açıkladı ama piyasa dönüp bakmadı, çünkü kimse riske girecek durumda değildi.

Ertesi sabah düğmeye basıldı.

19 Ağustos günü ABD Hazine Bakanı Bessent, tahvil geri alımlarını en az ikiye katladı.

Her alım artık 2 milyar yerine en az 4 milyar dolar olacak ve hedefte 10 ile 30 yıl arası tahviller var.

Hazine, kimsenin almadığı eski uzun vadeli tahvilleri kendisi geri alıyor.

Uzun vadeli faiz aynı gün %5.19'a indi.

Yatırımcılar aylardır Fed'in faiz indirmesini bekliyordu ama indirim Fed'den gelmedi, Hazine kendi elleriyle yaptı.

Alacaklısı kaçan devlet, kendi kendinin alacaklısı olur.

Piyasa bu hamleyi bir likidite genişlemesi olarak okudu, çünkü devlet her ay piyasaya milyarlarca dolar verecek.

Garanti gerileyince kilit çözüldü, para riske dönmeye başladı ve Bitcoin'e giden yol buradan açıldı.

Yükselişin sebebi bu.

Peki devlet bu alımların parasını nereden buluyor?

Kısa vadeli bono satarak buluyor. Yani uzun vadeli borcu geri alıyor, yerine kısa vadeli borç koyuyor.

O bonoları kim alıyor?

En büyük alıcı para piyasası fonları, ama en hızlı büyüyen alıcı dolara bağlı kripto para çıkaran şirketler.

Trump'ın geçen yıl imzaladığı yasa bu şirketleri, topladıkları her doları kısa vadeli ABD tahviline yatırmaya zorluyor.

Kısa vadeye akan para devletin geri alımlarını besliyor. Geri alımlar faizi düşürüyor, düşen faiz parayı Bitcoin'e döndürüyor.

Kripto piyasası büyüdükçe dolara bağlı kripto paraların arzı artıyor ve o dolarlar yeniden kısa vadeli tahvile akıyor.

Uzun vade kısa vadeye, kısa vade Bitcoin'e, Bitcoin yeniden kısa vadeye akıyor.

Sistem kendi kendini besliyor.

Üstelik bu ayın tek hamlesi de değildi, çünkü ayın başında ABD, Japonya ile birlikte piyasaya girip yen almıştı.

Yen güçlenirse Japonya merkez bankası aceleyle faiz artırmak zorunda kalmaz.

ABD bir eliyle kendi tahvilini, öbür eliyle Japonya'nın parasını alıyor. İki hamle de aynı borç sistemini ayakta tutuyor.

Peki yükseliş neden bu kadar sert oldu?

Çünkü herkes düşüş bekliyordu ve kalabalık short tarafına yığılmıştı.

Alımlar başlayınca short açanlar zararı durdurmak için almak zorunda kaldı ve bu zorunlu alımlar fiyatı 64 binden 68 bine taşıdı.

68 ile 70 bin arası opsiyon satan kurumların sınır seviyesiydi. Fiyat orayı kırınca onlar da korunmak için alıma geçti, alım alımı doğurdu ve fiyat 72 bine dayandı.

24 saatin sonunda 3 milyar dolardan fazla pozisyon liq olmuştu, %92'si shorttu ve bu 2021'den beri en büyük short temizliğiydi.

Piyasada kalabalık taraf her zaman yakıttır.

Peki bundan sonra ne izlemek gerekiyor?

Takvimi izleyin.

Büyütülmüş geri alımlar 9 Eylül'de başlıyor ve 4 Kasım'a kadar sürüyor. Devlet likidite programını ilk kez bu kadar açık ilan etti.

Bir de Japonya'yı izleyin.

Japonya merkez bankası eylül ayında faiz artırabilir ve piyasa şimdiden bunu konuşuyor. Artırırsa dünya, Japonya'ya olan borcunu kapatmak için elindekini satmaya başlar.

Yükselişin düğmesine ABD bastı.

Düşüşün düğmesi hâlâ Japonya'da duruyor.

Önümüzdeki dönem kritik. Sizi bilgilendireceğim.

[Asanoha | Timechain Art Magazine @asanoha_gold]

https://t.co/iHiPlUW1Sr

[Pastor Coin @pastorcoin]

Heres a quick tutorial on rolling dice to generate a 24 word Bitcoin seed phrase.

In this video I use a @BlockstreamJade to calculate the checksum, https://t.co/xrLDldP5RW and @SparrowWallet to verify that the Jade is giving me accurate information.

Do your own research. This is for illustrative purposes, don't trust, verify. Worksheets available in comments.

[bee🐝 @0xbeehive]

SPACEX INSIDERS HAVE BEEN WAITING 5 YEARS FOR THIS MOMENT

And yesterday it finally came

911 million shares unlocked on August 6

These aren't retail traders panic selling

These are VCs and early employees who bought in at $5

And they don't need to hold anymore.

And the revenue miss on August 4 didn't help

It gave them one more reason to hit the exit button

Here's what makes this different from a normal dip:

This schedule doesn't end in August

- Aug 21
- Sep 10
- Sep 25
- Oct 10

Wave after wave

93% of all shares eligible by Q3 earnings

The market has to absorb all of that before it can go up

My zone: $85–$95

That's where the sellers run out

That's where I start buying

FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!

[Atlas Phoenix BTC @AtlasPhoenixBTC]

Re: Cold Card Hack

Hello fellow Bitcoiners,

It’s been nearly one week since my wallet was drained.

I lost my entire bitcoin stack, presumably the most in the entire attack - an amount I’m more than embarrassed and ashamed to even admit publicly. This was not only my life savings but my time, energy, hardcore conviction and identity after 13 years in this space.

I am posting pseudonymously as I’ve always preferred to stay out of the spotlight - and privacy (inspired by Satoshi) is something I value. I debated whether or not I should say anything at all, but after much deliberation I decided it may be beneficial for other victims who are struggling.

While this incident certainly forced upon me the darkest days of my life so far - I have now accepted it and will slowly put together my life again. I came from nothing and did everything right (except rolling the damn dice apparently 😅). I stayed away from trading, exchanges, shitcoins, ICOs, NFTs, false prophets, etc and quietly and consistently built up over the years through all the ups and downs - never spending frivolously on material goods but instead using bitcoin as my sense of freedom and security - with the hopes to pass it on to my future children.

Even though that peace, freedom and security is now gone - I am beyond grateful for the journey and life that bitcoin enabled me to have.

To all the other victims, as cliche as it is to say “it’s only money” - true wealth, as I’ve learned over and over again is in health, family, and friendships. I’d be lying if I told you I’m not afraid of the uncertainty ahead, but I know by taking one step at a time it will be possible to rebuild. Trust me if I can come to these realizations, you can too! The hardest challenges in life make us stronger and turn us into the best versions of ourselves - don’t give in to the hopelessness. By being in this community you are apart of something special that the majority of the world still hasn’t realized yet. It’s still early!

Thanks to all the wonderful people in the community I’ve been DMing over the past week - your kind words of support mean the world to me and helped me start to believe in myself again.

To the hacker: you still can do the right thing here and come clean - you have prompted a serious wake-up call that has brought the community together which will bring more resilience for the future. Doing the noble thing now will prevent a lifelong hunt.

To all the amazing bitcoiners who have jumped to action from the very beginning to support each other and mitigate further damage - it’s been a beautiful thing to watch.

To the @blocks team and especially @intangiblecoins, your efforts are inspiring and provide me with hope. Believe me when I say that IF I ever get my coins back you will all be taken care of very well, along with massive donations to the open source community.

For now I will withhold any judgement towards @nvk and the @Coinkite team - while I’m still processing this loss and dealing with the gravity of building my life up from the ruins - I have 0 anger or resentment. Bitcoin security is a tough job, mistakes are made, and lessons are learned by all. I made mistakes by trusting and not verifying as well as not having a more robust security solution so the responsibility must be shared, hindsight is 20/20 and even though it’s tough: I’m okay admitting that. Bitcoin humbles all.

Having said all that… I’M NOT FUCKING LEAVING!!! I will start building a new stack from the ground up like all the other plebs as my conviction in Bitcoin is even stronger today then when I got my first coins in 2013.

This was never about the money - it was always about the revolution, and that can’t be stopped. We will win.

Let’s keep our heads high.
The march continues.
It’s time to rebuild.

PS: Thanks for everything Satoshi ❤️

-M

[The Smart Ape 🔥 @the_smart_ape]

people who stored their btc on coldcard got drained because of entropy.

the seed generation was reproducible, anyone could recompute their keys.

so i went through every other hardware wallet to see how they make your seed, and whether the same thing can happen again.

@Trezor: mixes the device's randomness with randomness from your computer, and the device has to prove it used both. even if its chip is fully broken, you're still fine. the best design here by far.

@BitBoxSwiss: 5 separate sources of randomness combined. one bad source can't sink you. open source, reproducible builds, dice supported.

@FoundationHQ: built their own randomness circuit out of plain resistors and capacitors, open source, on top of two other sources. no black-box chip to trust. supports dice.

@KeystoneWallet: 2 secure chips from 2 different manufacturers, combined. also lets you roll 99 dice and publishes how to check the result yourself.

@Blockstream: jade pulls from 7 things: radio noise, cpu counters, battery, temperature, camera, your input, the app. very hard to break all of them.

@SeedSigner: your dice are the only source. no chip to trust at all. and they ship a guide teaching you to verify their own math. weakest hardware, strongest proof.

@OneKey: secure element plus mcu combined on device, open source firmware. solid, but you can't add your own randomness.

@Ledger: one certified chip (AIS-31, EAL5+). good randomness. but it's a single source, closed source, and you cannot verify any of it. you're trusting them completely.

@Tangem: key is born inside the chip and never comes out. audited by three firms. same trade: strong, and impossible for you to check by design.

@ngrave_official: mixes chip randomness with your fingerprint and room light. clever. but the "EAL7" badge covers one software component, not the whole device.

@ELLIPAL: single certified chip, no software fallback, fails closed instead of guessing. closed source, so take it on faith.

@SafePal: 2 chips mixed. they've never published the details.

@COLDCARDwallet: patched now, and dice on coldcard were always verifiable. but every seed made between 2021 and 2026 is permanently burned.

one source = ledger, tangem, ellipal. that one source fails, everything fails. their answer is to make it excellent and certified. that's exactly the bet coldcard lost.

many sources = trezor, bitbox, passport, jade, keystone. one broken source never reaches your key.

and every one of these claims 128 or 256 bits.

coldcard did too. certification doesn't help either, coldcard's chip was fine, the code just stopped calling it.

the only thing that saves you is being able to check.
roll your own dice. verify the words yourself.

[Bitcoin Dev Project @Bitcoin_Devs]

Entropy → Mnemonic → Seed → Master Key → Child Keys, explained

1/3

[Bitcoin Dev Project @Bitcoin_Devs]

The COLDCARD entropy attack, explained simply.

1/

[Rahul @sairahul1]

Tom and Jerry cost $50,000 per episode in 1945

That's $870,000 today.

A 19-year-old spent $124 last month and made $12,345.

Claude writes each scene: 10 minutes
Seedream draws every frame: 20 minutes
Seedance animates the chase: 15 minutes
ElevenLabs voices the cast: 10 minutes
Suno scores the gag: 5 minutes
Make uploads it: 0 minutes

$870,000 then. $124 now. Same chase.

He runs it from one laptop.

Bookmark this. Every step is in the article below.

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 SAVE THE DATE: OCTOBER 9

For over a decade, $BTC has followed same cycle rhythm:

Bull phase: 1,064 days
Bear phase: 364 days

2015-2017 → 1,064 days up
2017-2018 → 364 days down

2018-2021 → 1,064 days up
2021-2022 → 364 days down

2022-2025 → 1,064 days up
2025-2026 → 364 days down

Based on this pattern, 2026 market bottom should form around October 9

I've been calling major market cycle turns for years

Turn notifs on so you don't miss next major market call...

[𝗖𝗛𝗔𝗜𝗡 𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗗 ⛓🧠 @0xChainMind]

BTC IS REPEATING THE SAME CYCLE BOTTOM PATTERN!

Here's how simple it is:

Bear phase - 365 days
Bull phase - 1064 days
Then it repeats

We're deep in the 365-day bear now, with ~3 months left to dump

Get ready, more downside first, then the bottom

Turn on notifs, I'll call the cycle bottom

[Archaeo - Histories @archeohistories]

Baobab, a prehistoric species which predates both mankind and splitting of continents over 200 million years ago. Baobabs (Adansonia) are distinctive trees with incredibly large trunks. They can store tremendous amounts of water, as their trunks noticeably swell during the rainy season.

Tree is native to African savannah, where climate is extremely dry and arid, it is a symbol of life and positivity in a landscape where little else can thrive. African baobab (A. digitata) has a vast range throughout the arid parts of Africa; six additional species are native to the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar, off south-east Africa; and an eighth species is native to north-west Australia. The largest known living baobab is the Sagole Big Tree, a specimen of A. digitata located in Masisi, Vhembe, South Africa, near the border with Zimbabwe. Based on its most recent measurements, Sagole has an extremely large base that covers 60.6m², a height of 19.8m and a total wood and bark volume of 414m³. Its  aboveground dry mass is estimated to be 54 tonnes.

Baobab trees grow in 32 African countries. Tree known for its longevity and some specimens in Africa have been dated to between 1100-2500 years old and reach up to 30m high and up to an enormous 50m in circumference. Baobab trees can provide shelter, food and water for animals and humans, many savannah communities made their homes near Baobab trees. Baobab also looms among ancient mounds and remains scattered around them are invariably early medieval or Portuguese.

Until 2018, the largest living baobab was sacred Tsitakakoike Baobab, a specimen of the endangered species Adansonia grandidieri, which grew near Andombiro in the Ambiky Forest of south-west Madagascar. The incredibly stout and compact tree had a cylindrical trunk with a base that covered 59.6 m², a height of 14.6m and a total volume of 455 m³ - 380 m³ of which was trunk and 75 m³ of which was canopy. It partially broke and collapsed in February 2018 leaving about 40% of the tree still standing, but this was expected to also collapse soon after.

An even larger African baobab tree (A. digitata) alive during 21st Century was the Platland/Sunland Tree of Modjadjiskloof, South Africa, with a base of 67.9 m², height of 18.9m and a total wood and bark volume of 448 m³. Unfortunately, a large portion of the Platland Tree collapsed and died in 2016, leaving the Sagole Big Tree to claim the top spot.

Baobabs have among the lightest wood for any tree. Balsa wood is well known to model aeroplane makers as one of the lightest and softest woods, with a wood density that averages around 0.15 g/cm³, yet baobab wood is even lighter, averaging 0.13 g/cm³. As a result, the aboveground dry mass of the Platland baobab was estimated at only 58 tonnes and about 59 tonnes for Tsitakakoike. In terms of mass, giant gum trees (Eucalyptus) of Australia are the largest hardwood trees.

#archaeohistories

[Drei @drei4u]

I made a deductive observation of previous #Bitcoin price action. I say it's impossible the price will ever go below pre-BTC ETF levels of $44,500. Unless most of them empty all their stacks! Price might only dump until $55k. New treasuries and spot ETFs prevents sub-$55k dumps.

[daz @MetamateDaz]

Capitalism makes quitting your job a genuine threat to your life, because it links your basic immediate survival needs to staying employed.

This system is predatory.

[Seth @seth_fin]

🚨 Gold vs $BTC

What if this pattern were to play out in a similar way?

#Bitcoin

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

https://t.co/xYiWEULbFG

[Sentora @SentoraHQ]

On February 1, BlackRock's spot $BTC ETF recorded over $10 billion in daily trading volume for the first time ever.

[Duo Nine ⚡ YCC @duonine]

Here's is what nobody will tell you about what's happening in the world.

This will send Bitcoin towards a million faster than ever before.

Let's start with Trump and why he's different than any previous US president in recent history.

In the past, US was led by presidents that were not originally billionaires. This matters. Let me explain.

Before Trump, if US wanted to do a regime change in some country (think Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan) this would take a long time and involve many stakeholders (coalitions of allies, NGOs, corporations, mercenaries).

This was on purpose.

The longer it took to enact regime change and "stabilize" a country, the more money could be laundered. The process was simple.

Start war -> send tons of cash to said country for made up reasons -> launder money -> sends tons of cash back to US political interests via a wide network of stakeholders operating in said country.

This is how the Ukraine war works right now too. Billions are laundered every year.

Through this process, previous US presidents and their interest groups became rich overnight. Think Clinton (Bosnia/Kosovo), Bush (Iraq), Obama (Syria/Libya), Biden (Afghanistan).

In the past, war was a business to get rich mixed with various political rationale (smokescreen) that was sold to the public as an excuse.

Trump dropped the smokescreen ("international law") and the protracted war meta. Why?

Because he's already rich.

His incentives are different for doing things.

He kidnapped Maduro and took him out of Venezuela overnight. Mission completed in a few hours.

The world was shocked.

What took years before (regime change), happened in a few hours under Trump and he told nobody, including his "allies".

Trump is not interested to become rich via the war business. Nope. He wants to become the "greatest US president in history".

That's why he does not shy away from doing even larger things, like say take Greenland from long time NATO ally, Denmark. Plus, he's on a timer. He's got three years left.

Previous US presidents followed the rules to a large extend, and everyone got rich, including their allies. It was good business for everyone.

Trump is not interested in that. He wants to Make America Great Again. Great also means bigger. Just look at Greenland on a map.

This is why Trump is such a disruptor.

Time to talk about the two categories of leaders:

1. Politicians
2. Statesmen

The first category are paid puppets working on a commission (mostly found in Europe) that loved the game before Trump. Everyone got rich, remember?

The second category are people like Trump, Putin, or Xi. In the past, we can mention Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill, Napoleon, Peter the Great, and so on.

Statesmen are not motivated by money, they are outward looking and they "build a nation". This does not come without dangers. Think of Hitler, Stalin or Mao.

What Trump is doing right now can go either way. He will either rejuvenate America like never before or be the trigger for its demise. It's too early to know which way it will go.

Regardless, the old game is out the window. No wonder politicians in Europe are in panic mode. They don't know how to play this new game.

There is a new world emerging at our feet and crypto (which Trump embraces and promotes) will be very much part of it. Here is why.

The unipolar world is dead. Pax America is over.

NATO will likely collapse and then the European Union will follow. This process will start as soon as US takes Greenland. That will signal the end of NATO.

That action will then divide Europe since not all countries will side with Denmark, some will side with US. That will crush the EU and splinter it.

In a multipolar world where US is dominating the Americas, Russia the Eurasian continent and China South-East Asia there will be a dire need for a common denominator.

Right now, that is gold and its price going parabolic is capturing the uncertainty of this future with the certainty of hard money, which it represents.

Because the world is fragmenting, the dominance of USD across international trade will continue to fall and has been falling for decades now.

With the EU collapsing (think of the Euro) and the USD losing market share in international transactions, what will fill this growing gap to transact safely with people you may not actually trust?

Bitcoin.

Gold is good, but not as good as Bitcoin.

The faster Trump will collapse the current system to bring about this new world, the faster Bitcoin will raise, both in price, and use cases.

It's not an if, but rather, how long this transition to a new system will take and how bumpy it will get. Some say by 2030 it will be obvious we're in a new world.

Add AI and other significant disruptors to the current system and the inevitable stares at you in the eyes. Hopefully, major wars will be avoided, but conflicts (including civil wars) are likely in the years to come.

Trump just happens to be a first mover. His instincts are right, the world is changing, but if greed takes over, he'll bite more than he can chew, then pay the price.

Hit a follow @duonine and share this post if you agree!

[symbiote @cryptosymbiiote]

BTC is repeating history patterns exactly like it was in the previous 3 cycles

Same after pump correction that might lead us to $60K-$70K

Not trying to guess here, cause nobody knows for sure, but everything points to a further dump

All of that will be true if cycles are still alive

But it didn't really come up with macro that we have, like pro-crypto president, pro-crypto everything, with huge demand

Chances are huge that these are already priced in events

Bookmark this and be careful in the current market