Lake H Cap

Markets and memes. Anything, but a lot of energy, resources, industrials, etc. Sometimes hold opposed ideas at the same time. Life & markets are reflexive.

[David Cox, CMT, CFA @DavidCoxRJ]

industrials $XLI sector has turned bigger picture 50/200-day #bullish vs. technology $XLK

[Lake H Cap @LakeH_Cap]

@rev_cap @pekwat

[Beyond-Charting 📈 @Beyond_Charting]

#solar It's happening ☀️☀️☀️☀️

[Beyond-Charting 📈 @Beyond_Charting]

@Acyn In May, for the first time on record, solar energy outproduced coal in the United States, generating 12.8% of the country’s electricity compared to coal’s 12.2%. Trump can't stop it apparently.

[INVESTMENT HULK @INVESTMENTSHULK]

TALE AS OLD AS TIME

[Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600]

Poland went from Iranian living standards to Japanese living standards in just a few decades. Not bad…

[Lake H Cap @LakeH_Cap]

Great read on macro, oil, and geopol

[Invisible Fist @matrbk]

In Early May, we predicted that markets were running a suppression regime that was consuming its fuel until a converging window beginning in June. That window is now here and the predictions have proven mostly true.

https://t.co/o5tGCGiFEp

[Lee (Greater) @shortmagsmle]

It was a lady cop? It was a rabbi coming out of PornHub headquarters? Shooter was a communist? The other cop was named Mohammed? It was in a gun free zone? Took place in Canada?

[Lake H Cap @LakeH_Cap]

@vanckzhu Sorry friend $MLP.v :)

[Lake H Cap @LakeH_Cap]

If you care about resource companies, $MLP really is a cool one

[Rock Bottom Entries @RockBtmEntries]

$MLP.v @MLPotash

I haven't heard a more bullish interview... quite clear where this story is headed in the next 12 months.

Quotes from Farhad:

“It is actually, if you look at the total global resource, one of the largest in the world.”

“Economics look very, very strong, probably one of the lowest cost structures out there.”

"We have never seen anything like this before… the equity dilution will be minimal."

“We’re the only junior fertilizer company that has that type of support from the US government.”

“If we get a deepwater port done… that will remove any constraint on the scalability of the project."

“Instead of… 800,000 tons a year… anybody else who controls the project can go up to 4–5 million tons a year.”

“That will be one of the major producers… over time.”

“It will also position us as one of the largest producers down the road at a very low cost.”

“Western parties… Chinese or Western parties… they don’t want to be involved with small production scale.”

“We will be able to actually command much higher premium anyway.”

“We’re also looking at potential doing a JV or strategic partnership with large… potash producers and non-potash fertilizer producers.”

Sub $200m EV, fully funded (outside capex) - and shaping up to be one of the largest, most competitive potash producers in the world.

[Lake H Cap @LakeH_Cap]

@AJButton2 Seems like a great opportunity here

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

One reason the US is considering acquiring Greenland is to secure access to seafood that could potentially bring back unlimited shrimp at Red Lobster. - US official to the New Yorker

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

“Gross short positions surged to 231k contracts, the highest level since the pandemic…”

[Gene Parmesan @dsonoiki]

still don’t understand what’s so special about Elon Musk’s money that his $1 trillion dollars would solve every problem on earth, but the $7 trillion dollars the US government spends annually hardly solves the problems in America

[Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent]

For this week’s Gavekal zoominar, I caught up with my friend and business partner Anatole @Kaletsky. We discussed everything from the Iran peace deal, where energy and commodities should head now, the painful underperformance of HK stocks, the outperformance of Japan and many other things beside. For those who pay really close attention, my chocolate lab Huxley even makes a brief appearance…

https://t.co/AgLzxRR3bv

[timothy faust 🇵🇸 @taste_of_tbone]

huge news for DocuSign

[Lake H Cap @LakeH_Cap]

This really is pretty wild. Consensus understanding was long lead time equipment was not available which would take ~18 months+

[LNG Investor @LNG_Investor_]

QatarEnergy expects to raise output to about 50% of capacity a month after safe passage is restored, and to roughly 80% within two months.

[Matt Warder @mfwarder]

Got so much stuff going on that I totally forgot to mention the new @TheCoalTrader podcast has been out for a few days.

Given today’s price action it’s a good day to listen to it…links below! #CoalTwitter

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

This AI just exposed the BIGGEST legal insider trading operation in America.

A platform called GovGreed built a seven-layer machine learning system that cross-references every stock trade disclosed by every sitting politician against the bills their committees control, the campaign donations they receive, and the companies their votes directly impact.

It scored all 540 politicians currently in Congress. And the numbers are crazy:

56% of every stock purchase made by Congress in the last 16 months was on a stock directly affected by a bill the buyer later voted on. That is 6,170 out of 11,016 total purchases.

More than HALF of all congressional stock buys are on companies whose fate that same politician is about to decide.

343 of 540 Congress members actively trade stocks while holding access to nonpublic legislative information.

That is 63.8% of the entire legislature making market bets with an informational edge that would put any hedge fund manager in prison.

The AI identified 752 active "Triple Signals" in the current Congress. A Triple Signal fires when three conditions line up at once:

The politician sits on the committee controlling a bill, they traded stock in a company affected by that bill, AND they received campaign contributions from that same industry.

Bills carrying these insider indicators pass at 5.4 TIMES the normal rate.

Now look at the individual leaderboard:

- Nancy Pelosi's estimated portfolio sits at $194 million with a Greediness score of 98.1 out of 100
- Ro Khanna made 13,231 trades across 800+ different tickers
- Michael McCaul made 32,302 trades and filed 6,670 of them late
- Thomas Suozzi filed 86.4% of his trades late with an average delay of 396 days, meaning his disclosures landed over a YEAR after he made the trade

And then there is Lisa McClain, the fourth-ranking Republican in the House. She has made 1,443 trades in three years, more than 98% of all politicians tracked.

She violated the STOCK Act twice in a single year, disclosing up to $900,000 in trades months after the legal deadline. Her husband bought up to $250,000 in Elon Musk's xAI, which quietly converted into SpaceX equity before last Friday's $2 trillion IPO.

The penalty for all of this? A $200 fine.

The number of Congress members ever prosecuted under the STOCK Act since it passed in 2012? Zero.

And the cruelest part is this:

A bill to ban congressional stock trading was introduced in January 2026. It has bipartisan support. Over 80% of American voters want it passed.

But Congress is sitting on it, because the people who would have to vote yes are the same people making millions from the system staying exactly the way it is.

They write the insider trading laws, they exempt themselves from enforcement, they trade on the information those laws generate, and when they get caught, they pay a fine that is basically nothing.

The AI didn't discover anything Congress was hiding. It just organized what was already public into a pattern so obvious that nobody can pretend it isn't there anymore.

[Shanghai Macro Strategist @ShanghaiMacro]

Recession in Chinese domestic demand is further confirmed:

May retail sales growth -0.6% versus 0% expected.

May fixed asset investment growth -4.1% versus -2% expected.

The entire Chinese economy is now being carried by exports, of which over 50% are essentially driven by the ongoing AI build-out in the US.

China’s economic imbalance has reached an extreme, indicating rising odds of a significant policy intervention.