$CELH $PEP
We support the demand for an immediate overhaul of leadership at Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH). It is overdue…
While we do not know Russ Savage personally (and whether this is his actual X account @RussRockstar ), his DNA is rooted in the energy drink space. As founder of @rockstarenergy , he has a track record of vision, urgency AND attention to details. This is sorely lacking with current CELH leadership. His large equity stake, strategic/operating insight plus offer to step in immediately as CEO is exactly what the company needs.
It is not surprising to see CELH struggle under John Fieldly’s captaincy. He rightfully should be credited with setting the company’s trajectory, but does not have the skillset or personality to steward its future. John’s background is finance and corporate management, NOT cultivating aspirational brands. This can be said about much of the other CELH leadership and Board of Directors, which includes former @pepsi executives.
When a CEO cannot add authenticity, including with the capital market, existing-loyal and new-aspiring consumers and investors will see right through. Outside of Toby David (Chief of Staff), there does not seem to be one person at the CELH executive or Board levels who actually lives the lifestyles @CelsiusOfficial , @AlaniNutrition and Rockstar promote. This is the opposite of what is needed in a hyper competitive and rapidly evolving market.
Speaking of inauthentic, why does a company like CELH even have a Chief of Staff? It is not the Government…
When the DNA of a company and its leadership are out of sync, the business is in jeopardy. It is only a matter of time before this shows up in execution and results. If left unchecked, the company dives into the abyss, potentially never to return. Look at pioneers like @nike@canadagoose and @UnderArmour who are fighting for their lives.
As way of background, we have been consuming Celsius in the US, Asia, Canada and Middle East, since the early 2010s (when we could find it, the company was a penny stock and Gerry David was CEO). We were also heavy drinkers of the original Rockstar Recovery series (launched in 2010), when it was one of the original low sugar/calorie energy drinks with electrolytes. We have a deep four-decade connection with the fitness, nutrition and supplementation space. We understand what Alani Nu DID bring to the table (ie. protein, supplements, science), but, ironically, CELH is seemingly discontinuing some of the Alani NU non-RTD products even though they are in some of the fastest growing consumer segments.
Twenty years ago, the lack of a sugar free (healthier) energy drink for the athletic and fitness market was what caught our attention. Since then, incumbents have stepped in and new entrants like @GHOSTBEV are coming on strong (whose DNA is based in the fitness and supplement space). Unbelievably, Celsius just promoted the opposite with its attached X post…
Pepsi needs to shoulder a lot of the blame for the current situation. It has a lot of sway with its equity stake, distribution system and embedded executives. Unfortunately though, it is not clear what the long term goal is. It seems more and more like it is trying to orchestrate a full take over of CELH at a depressed market value.
If Russ Savage was to become CEO, he should be able to reset the relationship with Pepsi based on his history. At minimum, he should be able to quickly stabilize the CELH business, reignite Rockstar (currently seen as a negative growth driver) and increase the company’s overall value. Whatever CELH is ultimately worth would be based on stronger company performance and/or negotiating a third party buyout for a premium.
No matter how you cut it, current leadership is not up to the task. Changes have been made in the last day, but are they enough and the right ones? We do not think so…⏱️
DISCLOSURE: We have purchased ~143,000 shares of CELH since 2018.
@BevInsights
@jobyaviation For those considering to attend the upcoming @DubaiAirshow , will there be Joby flight demonstrations held as part of SkyView? If so, are there better days to attend (i.e. will @joeben be speaking at a flight display outside of his panel session on November 19)? Thanks.
@Sonos $sono $aapl $msft $amzn $spot $roku $goog $arkk $tsla
Time to review some receipts…
It has been almost a year since the below post. Unfortunately in that time, former Sonos CEO, Patrick Spence, and the Board managed to play things out as speculated. Only two questions remain: (1) When will Sonos be purchased, and (2) By whom?
Tom Conrad is now the Interim CEO, but has been on the Board since before Sonos went public. As such, he is as complicit in the company’s downward trajectory as anyone. This, along with his business background, compensation package and the recent internal changes (firings and resignations), makes his appointment look more like a “change agent” than someone settling in for the long term. So far, he is attempting to (literally) patch things with the disasterous new App, mitigate brand damage, consolidate operations, reduce costs, stabilize sales and increase the stock price (thru share buybacks), which all point to a tuck-in purchase of Sonos by a competitor.
While this is disappointing, like we said before, we are not against a buyout in the absence of a growth plan that is not just based on potential TAMs and cyclicality. As well, the new US Federal Government Administration should be more supportive of this type of M&A, which is ironic given the fruitless millions Sonos has spent fighting the likes of @Google.
The odds Sonos remains a public company are dropping fast. That two financial analysts stopped coverage confirms expectations are low. When this “end” might occur is likely tied to stabilization of the new App. However, given continued rumours of low staff morale, this just as uncertain as when it was launched almost a year ago.
From an investor standpoint, many will be left deeply underwater as the sale price will be well below the Sonos all-time-high share price. Adding insult to injury, techincal analyses suggests Sonos’s share value could drop a further ~30% drop from here.
Neverthless, if Sonos really wants to remain an independent company it is still possible. It would require a hard reset and be ego crushing, but there is a narrow path forward: A NEW Board would need to rip the band-aid off and come clean with all stakeholders. They would need to thoroughly and publicly acknowledge how badly the company has been managed the last few years, with no excuses, word games or glossing over the negative impact. They should abruptly stop all internal and external brand messaging, opting for humility, urgency and customer focus over arrogance and a self-serving echo-chamber. They could showcase the angst caused in a self deprecating way (see @deadpoolmovie ); even a skit on @nbcsnl should not be ruled out. To reconnect with customers, Sonos could reopen Sonos flagship stores in existing main markets as well as potential new ones. In terms of customer appreciation, at minimum, Sonos Radio HD could be provided free for a year.
No matter what, Sonos is facing an existential inflection point; a self induced combination of @BlackBerry (from a technology perspective) and @budlight (brand destruction). The solution is simple: A hard reset of leadership, culture and likely ownership. Unfortunately, Sonos’s presentation at Morgan Stanley’s conference this week did little to suggest a bold and independent future…
DISCLOSURE: We purchased ~618,000 shares of Sonos since April 2019 and own 10 Sonos products including Sonos Radio HD. Over the years, we have posted concerns about the direction the company was headed, but without improvements we stopped purchasing any new products or upgrades along with Sonos shares.
@tim_cook@satyanadella@ajassy@panos_panay@eldsjal@rokuone@sundarpichai@CathieDWood@ARKInvest@elonmusk@JGenachowski@JoannaColes@mavolpi@tconrad@Mildenhall@brackendarrell@Patrick_Spence@WIRED@verge@TechCrunch@DigitalTrends@wirecutter@BrianSozzi@markpinc
Craig-Hallum Capital @Jefferies@MorganStanley@RaymondJames@RBLTSecurities
$sono $amzn $msft $snap $aapl $spot $goog
“IS SONOS THE NEW BLACKBERRY?”
Sonos has been a market leader for years, and arguably still is, but its X posts below are a glaring reminder of what has gone wrong with the company (i.e. a safe and comfortable culture). What is more concerning is its CEO, Patrick Spence, has allowed this to continue despite having had front row seats to the rise and fall of BlackBerry.
Since its IPO in 2018, Sonos has seemingly been void of urgency to inspire new consumers, let alone reenergize existing ones. Instead it appears to have built an echo chamber that focuses on selling to the “converted” and protecting itself from outside forces. If there is any doubt, one just has to look at the total lack of consumer engagement and virality (i.e. the number of likes, comments, mentions, views etc.) across all Sonos social media platforms, Patrick Spence’s interviews with friendly faces like Yahoo Finance and The Vergecast, his reposts of media coverage on X, the tenure of the majority of the Sonos Board and the tens of millions Sonos has spent fighting with Google over IP.
Sonos portrays itself as having deep connections to the music and entertainment industries. Ironically there have been few promoted collaborations over the years (see missed opportunities with Rick Rubin, the Beastie Boys limited edition speaker, Sonos Radio HD, Liverpool FC). If Sonos has such strong industry relationships, it should be amplifying them (like Tesla below) with ambassador-owners who are excited to tell the Sonos story. Sonos closed its flagship retail stores during COVID-19, which may have been cost effective at the time. Unfortunately, it now lacks a venue to collaboratively showcase its products/services in-person with ambassador-owners when the world craves live experiences. In contrast, Apple continues to open new stores in places like China and India.
Sonos has also taken a “secretive”, yet almost arrogant, approach to launching its new products/services like the upcoming headphones. This tactic works well when there is a viral brand and pent up excitment, which may have applied to Sonos in the past. Unfortunately, this is no longer the case.
In general, Sonos follows the standard corporate playbook: “It is laser focused on R&D, protecting its IP, strengthening its executive team and Board, embarking on new product/service replacement cycles and citinging multi-billion dollar TAMs”. But, without inspiring storytelling backed by sharp commercial execution across all markets (not just North America and Europe), the company ends up with a bunch of ideas, products and services (e.g. Sonos Flex, IKEA products, Audi car stereo, Ray, Sonos Radio HD, Sonos Pro for Business) that may be seeded but never harvested. Worse, they can end up cannibalizing sales (i.e. FY24 guidance is flat despite the new headphones) and limiting bottom line growth.
The reality is Sonos has gone from category creator (U2’s Bono was an early investor), to a promising IPO candidate that benefitted from COVID-19, to a brand that is seemingly holding on for macro-economic tailwinds. It even implemented share buybacks, to offset dilution for executive compensation, and is still barely worth what it was when it IPOed (the @NasdaqExchange has since increased 109%).
The path forward is simple: Sonos must dismantle the comfortable echo chamber it has built and return to the viral-survival mentality of a pioneer. This will unlock its potential. The pending launch of its new headphones is a great place to start. Patrick Spence has the battle scars and lessons from Blackberry to do it. The multi-billion dollar question is, “Will he, or will it be someone else?” #ComfortablyUncomfortable
DISCLOSURE: We have purchased ~618,000 shares since April 2019 and own 10 Sonos products including Sonos Radio HD.
@Patrick_Spence@Sonos@BankofAmerica Craig-Hallum Capital @DADavidsonCo@Jefferies@MorganStanley@RaymondJames@RBLTSecurities
#moonshot#ComfortablyUncomfortable#helloworld
Moonshots come in different forms, but all have the same big-vision, risk-reward, hard-work and self-belief profile. In this spirit, OC20 Ventures is proud to become a supporter of Enzo Kristian. @enzokristianski
Enzo is a young man from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada who has set his sights on tackling the world of waterskiing (jump, slalom and trick). This is despite being a “Flatlander” and growing up with more frostbite and frozen toes than sunburns. Despite only being 16 and in Grade 11, his work ethic has already led him to success representing Saskatchewan and Canada on the world stage. @SaskSport@TeamCanSki
Just as importantly, he is committed to combining athletics with high level education. Fluent in English and French, with a passion for building things, he is leaning towards mechanical engineering and eventually working in the supercar industry.
Enzo describes his mantra for life as “ComfortablyUncomfortable”. Proudly coming from a smaller community, this mindset is critical for his success. He represents everything OC20 Ventures stands for. We are here for it.🚀
$joby #joby $achr #achr
Having just visited Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and attended the @MEBAAshow panel discussion, “Beyond the hype: Practical solutions to launching Urban Air Mobility for BizAV”, it became clear how important the UAE is in the race to commercializing the first eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) flights in the world. Here a few general and UAE specific takeaways:
1. Partnering with progressive government is essential. It is not a choice. Without a close working relationship and clear path to commercialization, including milestones and deadlines, realizing commercial operations will not be possible by the end of 2025/early 2026 (if at all).
2. New and existing infrastructure development and supporting services have to be in sync with the build-up to initial flight activities. This creates opportunities for start-up companies and eventually multi-party operating agreements.
3. Subsequent scaling of operations has to be factored into initial operating plans, integrating key items like global manufacturing, personnel training, regulatory oversight, supply chain sourcing, software development, asset maintenance, customer service etc.
4. Risk analysis and mitigation should be accounted for throughout all stages, especially since eVTOLs are the first new form of aviation in decades. A critical mistake in any area could bring the entire industry to a halt.
5. The UAE is not only a desirable market on its own, it is the beachhead for the Middle East and North Africa region. It is also likely the best commercial test case environment for the rest of the world. With the large number of people transiting through, a lot people can experience eVTOLs for the first time and bring the desire for similar services back home.
6. @jobyaviation and @flyarcher are the global eVTOL front runners, but initially focusing on different areas within the UAE (Dubai - Joby/Abu Dhabi - Archer). Given Abu Dhabi is the UAE capital and Joby is arguably the most advanced, it will be interesting to see which company flies first and in which location.
7. A customer-first focus must be at the center of all eVTOL stakeholders. Attention to product and consumer service detail is critical. People must not forget electric vehicles were around before @Tesla. Just ideologically helping the environment was not enough to create the EV industry. A better car and experience had to be built. Electric air taxis will save people time and help the environment, but a much better air+land transportation solution must be delivered.
8. With all the different business and regulatory streams needed for eVTOLs to become a reality, anecdotally, there is some concern about ability of the stakeholders to deliver in a coordinated fashion. There is a drastic difference between technology, business and regulatory development and commercial/project delivery…
Whether it is the end of 2025 or early in 2026, the future of flying electric-air taxis is here; literally just around the corner. By the looks of it, the UAE will be at the center with the entire world watching.
@joeben@sciarra@blueskiesup@bonnysimi@eallison@DidierPapado@KateDehoff@H2FlyOfficial@ToyotaMotorCorp@Delta@Skyports_Infra@reidhoffman@markpinc@BaillieGifford@CathieDWood@ARKInvest
$celh #CELSIUS#livefit#celsiusenergydrink
While still growing, Celsius energy drink is facing stiff competition at home in the U.S. As result, international growth is of increasing importance. Finishing up a weeklong visit in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, it is good to see Celsius’s strong brand presence in the UAE market. It has top shelf placement at arguably the number one gym in Dubai, Binous, and anecdotally seems to be the preferred healthy energy drink of choice.
With the overall fitness industry growing quickly in the UAE, as well as globally, plus the number of people passing through Dubai and Abu Dhabi from all over the world, Celsius has the chance to create international “brand ambassadors” trying Celsius for the first time, then returning home to look for it and support locally...
$nio #nio
With all the concerns about competition and slow growth in China, NIO has a serious chance to build international momentum with its recently opened NIO House in Abu Dhabi and NIO Space in Dubai. After visiting both locations and riding in an EL8 in Dubai, it is clear there is a window of opportunity for NIO over the next few months.
Anecdotally, there is interest and demand from early adopters for NIO’s vehicles. But, there is still a lot of brand education and relationship building required given NIO is a Chinese company (although BYD and Geely are noticeable on the roads). The opening of the first NIO Power Swap station on Yas Island in early 2025 should create some viral moments and help NIO differentiate itself from the other two companies. More importantly, however, this should also help establish NIO as a contender to the UAE EV titleholder, Tesla.
NIO’s recently announced focus on the Middle East and North Africa region is a real possibility with this new beachhead in the UAE. However, the NIO executive back in China have to ensure the resources and commitment are truly in place to seize the moment. The UAE (and MENA) is ready for NIO, and logically/eventually one of its subrands, but the UAE is a discerning customer base with options from all over the world. Any major delays or slip-ups may be irrecoverable. Like back in China, execution is now the key to NIO’s success…
DISCLOSURE: We have purchased approximately 250,000 NIO shares since early 2019.
$nio #nio $joby #joby $celh #celh
After spending a week in Dubai and visiting Abu Dhabi to check in on some key investments @NIOGlobal@jobyaviation@CelsiusOfficial here are some general observations and comparisons to Singapore (FWIW):
1. The development and pace feels a lot like Singapore back in the 90’s, mixed with some very modern elements of today.
2. Infrastructure (industry and public) is being built seemingly everywhere, and while there is not the same land constraint, competition for resources leading to inflation is real.
3. Conversations between industry and government are similar in nature and structure, where things move very fast but not without some from of government engagement.
4. Visually there a lot of similarities in terms of master plans for communities and commercial developments, including how to accommodate very rapid population growth and move people around.
5. Like Singapore, there is a heavy reliance on immigration at all levels leading to a very multicultural society. It functions relatively seamlessly due to the government’s commitment to quickly becoming a major global player.
6. While multicultural and international in nature, there is a strong local culture that needs to be respected.
7. All major global brands for products and services are represented in the retail and industrial sectors.
8. The power of the consumer (individual and commercial) is extreme.
9. Like Singapore within Southeast Asia, Abu Dhabi and Dubai are quickly positioning the UAE to become a beachhead within the Middle East and North Africa. This not to be underestimated for those wanting to establish a presence throughout the broader region.
10. There is an “anything is possible” mindset. While big thinking is emphasized, similar importance is placed upon execution (i.e. deliver what you promise and on time).
Having been through the UAE over 20 year ago, a lot has changed. It has become a place of tremendous growth and opportunity. But, it is not a place for the faint of heart. Agility, along with big doses of resilience, are required.
$goev $maps
For what it is worth, this post is for those invested in both Weedmaps and Canoo and may not be aware of the common denominator. The harsh reality is company performance and valuation (for both) speaks for itself. The question is: Will Tony Aquila be recognized as a pioneer of two successful SPAC moonshots, or failed launches? 🤔🚀💥
@TonyAquila8020@canoo@weedmaps
Yesterday I jumped on Reddit for our monthly office hours to address questions from our community. I thought it would be useful to share the essence of a few of them here.
@Sonos $sono #sono $aapl $msft $amzn $spot $roku $goog $arkk $tsla
With less than one day to arguably the most critical earnings in Sonos history, it is important to establish some table stakes:
1. The lack of execution and immediate resolution to the recent App update and Ace headphone launch has inflicted seemingly irreparable damage to the company. This should lead to organizational changes being announced during the earnings call.
2. “Sonos Pro for Business”, a new business unit, has effectively been encumbered as a result and should not be included in any revenue forecasts for the near/medium terms. Unfortunately, it must be included on a cost basis.
3. Sonos market value is not lower than it is primarily because of (ironically) company share buybacks. After the earnings tomorrow, its market value will likely drop another 10% to around $10 per share approaching an all-time low.
4. Shareholder-led legal action is on the cusp of being triggered, but before it starts and to avoid unnecessary time and resources, it would be more practical for all existing and interested stakeholders such as @apple@Microsoft@amazon@Spotify@Roku@Google, private equity or startup competitors to initiate formal buy out discussions instead.
5. On the customer experience side, having the Sonos app destroy its own hardware is like owning a @Tesla and having it becoming undriveable due to a software update. This too would lead to lawsuits, regulatory action and brand destruction.
6. Customer work-arounds have become the norm for accessing basic and paid-for functionality. We discovered the use of Roam (Gen 1) through Sonos voice control is the best way to avoid the App and the new Cloud backend. Customer curated local playlists are still not easily available (like before the App update), but you can access them using Sonos voice activation through the Roam. You can also group the Roam with another speaker (like Playbar) and the playlist will surprisingly become available on the App.
No matter what happens, it should be an interesting next few days/weeks for all stakeholders involved… #tminus24hours
DISCLOSURE: We purchased ~618,000 shares of Sonos since April 2019 and own 10 Sonos products including Sonos Radio HD. We have previously posted our concerns about the direction the company is headed and presented serious solution alternatives.
@tim_cook@satyanadella@ajassy@panos_panay@eldsjal@rokuone@sundarpichai@CathieDWood@ARKInvest@elonmusk@JGenachowski@JoannaColes@mavolpi@tconrad@Mildenhall@brackendarrell@Patrick_Spence@WIRED@verge@TechCrunch@DigitalTrends@wirecutter@BrianSozzi@markpinc@BankofAmerica Craig-Hallum Capital @DADavidsonCo@Jefferies@MorganStanley@RaymondJames@RBLTSecurities
@Sonos $sono #sonos
Patrick Spence’s post yesterday attempting to address the ongoing crisis with the Sonos updated App and new Ace headphone launch is a case study in everything wrong with “tech” companies (often California based) that went public when money was essentially free and benefitted from the cruel irony of COVID-19. Now the day of reckoning has arrived and these companies, their Boards and CEOs do not seem to know what to do in a normal competitive operating environment.
Without rehashing the details of what has gone on, the critical issue for Sonos, its Board and CEO is they do not appear to know how to stop their ship from sinking. Worse yet, they may not even have accepted their ship is sinking... No one is taking full accountability for the crisis, let alone implementing the drastic and sweeping measures needed.
As we have said before, the Sonos Board and CEO have built an echo-chamber that everyone, including the +1,800 staff, apparently believe is more important to protect than its customers and fending off the competition. The ~$150-200 million that has been spent since the Sonos IPO on executive and Board compensation, fruitless IP battles, an oversized workforce combined with a 45% loss in company value (likely to be more after the upcoming quarterly earnings) is clear evidence of this.
The harsh reality is these internally focused stakeholders are now facing a total loss of their legacy system with the company floundering and accelerating to the point of no return (i.e. requiring high level firings, large scale layoffs, a buy out by a competitor, activist take over, bankruptcy etc.). The irony is these stakeholders will ideologically likely be left protecting 100% of nothing.
The below email exchange is exactly what Sonos needs today. The question is, who is going to send it? #bueller #anyone
DISCLOSURE: We purchased ~618,000 shares since April 2019 and own 10 Sonos products including Sonos Radio HD. We have previously posted our concerns about the direction Sonos is headed and presented serious solution alternatives.
@JGenachowski@JoannaColes@mavolpi@tconrad@Mildenhall@brackendarrell@Patrick_Spence@WIRED@verge@TechCrunch@DigitalTrends@wirecutter@BrianSozzi@panos_panay@markpinc@BankofAmerica Craig-Hallum Capital @DADavidsonCo@Jefferies@MorganStanley@RaymondJames@RBLTSecurities
@Sonos $sono #sonos
Patrick Spence’s post yesterday attempting to address the ongoing crisis with the Sonos updated App and new Ace headphone launch is a case study in everything wrong with “tech” companies (often California based) that went public when money was essentially free and benefitted from the cruel irony of COVID-19. Now the day of reckoning has arrived and these companies, their Boards and CEOs do not seem to know what to do in a normal competitive operating environment.
Without rehashing the details of what has gone on, the critical issue for Sonos, its Board and CEO is they do not appear to know how to stop their ship from sinking. Worse yet, they may not even have accepted their ship is sinking... No one is taking full accountability for the crisis, let alone implementing the drastic and sweeping measures needed.
As we have said before, the Sonos Board and CEO have built an echo-chamber that everyone, including the +1,800 staff, apparently believe is more important to protect than its customers and fending off the competition. The ~$150-200 million that has been spent since the Sonos IPO on executive and Board compensation, fruitless IP battles, an oversized workforce combined with a 45% loss in company value (likely to be more after the upcoming quarterly earnings) is clear evidence of this.
The harsh reality is these internally focused stakeholders are now facing a total loss of their legacy system with the company floundering and accelerating to the point of no return (i.e. requiring high level firings, large scale layoffs, a buy out by a competitor, activist take over, bankruptcy etc.). The irony is these stakeholders will ideologically likely be left protecting 100% of nothing.
The below email exchange is exactly what Sonos needs today. The question is, who is going to send it? #bueller #anyone
DISCLOSURE: We purchased ~618,000 shares since April 2019 and own 10 Sonos products including Sonos Radio HD. We have previously posted our concerns about the direction Sonos is headed and presented serious solution alternatives.
@JGenachowski@JoannaColes@mavolpi@tconrad@Mildenhall@brackendarrell@Patrick_Spence@WIRED@verge@TechCrunch@DigitalTrends@wirecutter@BrianSozzi@panos_panay@markpinc@BankofAmerica Craig-Hallum Capital @DADavidsonCo@Jefferies@MorganStanley@RaymondJames@RBLTSecurities