Value_Chain

[Sidecar Investor @sidecarcap]

Position sizing and diversification are the same conversation.

Investors need to cast a net wide enough to maximize the odds of catching a big winner, which is never obvious in advance.

But each position also has to be large enough to move the needle. A stock that goes up 10x won’t matter if it started as a tiny position.

The goal is to find the middle ground where your mistakes are survivable and your successes are meaningful.

That’s the game.

[Value_Chain @OldWell17]

@MebFaber How can you possibly repost a chart from this guy? He has been banging the same drum for 15 years and refuses to acknowledge he was wrong. Following his analysis is poisonous to achieving long term returns.

[Mike Levin @MikeLevin]

Follow the money on this one. It is rotten to the core.

The Pentagon just lent $620,000,000 to a tiny North Carolina startup called Vulcan Elements. The company is two years old.

It had fewer than 50 employees.

And three months before the deal was announced, Donald Trump Jr.’s venture firm quietly took a stake in it.

Here is the part the administration tried to bury.

Of the dozens of companies the Pentagon was weighing, Vulcan was the only deal initiated by a top White House aide. That aide was Peter Navarro, a close friend of Trump Jr. The order came down to move fast.

One official put it plainly: The call came from the White House. We have to get this done.

Staff worked late nights to push it through in weeks. Deals like this normally take many months of vetting. And when it closed, Vulcan’s valuation jumped from about 200 million dollars to roughly 2 billion.

A windfall for the investors, including the president’s son.

This is public money. Your money.

Routed through the Pentagon to enrich the president’s family and their friends. The Bush administration’s own chief ethics lawyer called it corruption we pay for.

And there is more coming.

A drone parts company Trump Jr. holds a stake in is also under Pentagon review.

This is not a one-off. It is a pattern. The president’s family is treating the federal Treasury like a private bank, and the bill lands on every taxpayer.

https://t.co/4kB1cZNmlE

[Value_Chain @OldWell17]

@GabGrowth Each of these companies are reporting significant increases in competitive intensity with pricing pressure. They are thematic story stocks but operate in very challenging competitive environments.

[Value_Chain @OldWell17]

@ThierryBorgeat How does the market treat it like a secret? It’s trading at 62x P/E

[Value_Chain @OldWell17]

@RUSHMOREonX @TroyAikman @Polymarket Just stealing this segment from @PardonMyTake huh?

[Value_Chain @OldWell17]

@SimplerInvestor Consolidated figures. Btw for non-consolidated I’m seeing a 16% decline in full-year earnings.

[Josh RR Jokien @joshcarlosjosh]

Red Cross worker distributes snacks and juice to volunteers who just gave blood:

[Seth Moulton @sethmoulton]

There is an ongoing search and rescue operation for a missing American service member whose plane was shot down over Iran. Their safety is unknown.

They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they'll be saved.

This is DISGUSTING.

Quick reminder too that @DonaldJTrumpJr is an investor in this dystopian death market and may have access to intelligence that isn't public yet.

[Variant @VariantMkt]

Ruane Cunniff’s Acacia Fund, started in the 1980s, has quietly built one of the longest-running and most consistent track records in investing.

Greg Alexander and Acacia have stayed intensely private. Little is written, few interviews exist, and capital has compounded far from the spotlight. Even Warren Buffett once pointed to Alexander as one of the most talented investors he’s encountered.

It’s a powerful reminder: some of the best investors don’t seek attention, they avoid it!

Let’s dive in.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Last year, Donald Trump Jr. invested in a rare earths startup at a $200 million valuation.

Then three months later, the US government announced a huge loan backstop for the company and now it's worth around $2 billion.

https://t.co/vWsxznFgPU

[Rep. Mike Levin @RepMikeLevin]

This is an ASTONISHING level of corruption.

DHS handed a $143 MILLION no-bid contract to a company that was 8 days old, with no headquarters, no website, no prior federal work, and an address linked to a residence of a political operative.

That company then subcontracted with a firm whose CEO is married to Noem's former Assistant Secretary — the same official who ran the DHS office that awarded the contract.

And what did taxpayers get for $143 million of their money? Ads featuring Kristi Noem on horseback in front of Mount Rushmore.

It was long past time for Noem to go. To whoever comes next: we will watch every contract and dollar, and we intend to hold you accountable for all of it.

[Value_Chain @OldWell17]

@JerryCap I agree with your point. But I guess you could say with 2-3% PCE growth + 2-3% inflation, they can still grow revenue 4-6% (EPS 6-8%) in perpetuity while being protected by entrenched network effects. 23x PCF didn’t seem egregious for that.

[Red Pill Dispenser @redpilldispensr]

Profound words of wisdom from Alan Watts.

"One day you'll realize you've already lived through some of the best days of your life and you didn't even know it at the time."

"You were too busy chasing what's next, busy worrying about what's missing. Thinking happiness was something you'd arrive at one day."

"But while you were waiting you were laughing with people who won't always be around. You were making memories in places you'll one day drive past and feel something you can't explain. You were standing in moments that didn't feel like the good old days until they were gone."

"So stop waiting for life to start. You're already living it."

[David J. Bier @David_J_Bier]

DHS agents in MN swerved in front of an unarmed woman who was recording them, once again WALK IN FRONT OF A CAR with guns drawn. The only thing they've learned from Renee Good is how to get away with killing people. A local cop intervened to stop the illegal arrest!

[Richard Hanania @RichardHanania]

I sound like a broken record, but every day I am shocked in some new way by the moral depravity of this administration.

Look, AI is here, and we all have an interest in not sharing stuff that's fake or getting fooled by it. Who can we trust? Decent people care about building some reputation for trustworthiness.

Here we have an official government account sharing a fake AI photo of a woman getting arrested as if it's real. Hasn't been convicted of anything, they're out in public openly putting out a fake photo of a suspect before her trial.

Their response when caught doing this is "The memes will continue."

They just don't care! They have no interest in maintaining a reputation for honesty among those they might try to win over, or their allies. This is the most disturbing part. They just don't operate in a universe where ethics, truth, or trustworthiness are actual values or even things that have instrumental value.

They're morally rotten in ways that I wouldn't think are possible.

Again, it gets old constantly going off about the depravity of the right at this moment. But they find new ways to surprise us. They have to be defeated.

[Value_Chain @OldWell17]

@SimplerInvestor Appreciate you sharing your thoughts - you’ve found some cool off the beaten the path businesses!

[Value_Chain @OldWell17]

@SimplerInvestor Got it, thanks. It’ll be interesting to see if they can maintain these margins. It looks like they only earned 1% net margin for the 4 years up to FY5/24, with a loss on pretax profit in 2022.