Useless Trader

Markets since 2009/Crypto since 2015

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Nature is healing.

Any politician opposed to data centers is unqualified to hold public office.

Data centers are revitalizing small towns all over America, a godsend for blue collar workers, lowering electricity costs, accelerating the transition to sustainable energy and use negligible amounts of water.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Incredibly tone deaf right now as PC, gaming console, and server makers are already struggling with shortages and massive chip price inflation. This would kneecap the entire industry and lead to job losses without producing a single new fab in the U.S.

[Ed Bradford @Fullcarry]

More rate volatility is inevitable with no forward guidance. And higher vol means higher term premium. Back end of the UST curve reflects this new reality.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The cycle bottom target of the Golden Ratio Multiplier is getting more agressive by the week, now at 31k.

That number also appears with the Magic Bands.

For a while, I've felt that target, even though "would have been hit in previous cycles," is too harsh. Although, not out of the question.

Hitting level 2 again on the other hand, seems very plausible which is currently at 50k. The most popular target for accurate moving averages remains low to mid 40ks.

Bitcoin is also now running into resistance at level 3 (81k).

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.

"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left."

"Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination."

"Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets."

"If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit."

https://t.co/Xe8Vi38WiI

[Ozzy @ozzy_livin]

Other notes ✍️

$NVDA tends to drop 2-5% in earnings weeks. Everyone is long calls, #vol crush forces dealers to sell stock

Long-end yields keep rising from populism, inequality, and a coming wave 🌊 of 2021-era debt refinancing

Higher rates crush corporate profit margins over time by making leverage far more expensive

Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech will be closely watched. The bond market can overpower the Fed.

$NVDA earnings + Jackson Hole 🏔️ → use active risk management
https://t.co/1DlY9yd3dY

[Blueprintsmb @blueprintsmb22]

guesses =>

low volume summer week. AI sentiment starting to turn a bit. altman interview uninspiring. trump tariffs. de grossing after TMT guys lost their shirts in July and refuse to get hit twice so momentum trade (long semis, short software/hyperscalers) unwinding a bit.

pple trying to become more defensive as sept will be volatile...jackson hole with inflation data going to be hotter post july data...risk of negative company pre-announcements during conference season as oil remains high which could impact consumer names

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*TRUMP TO RAISE AUTO, STEEL TARIFFS ON CANADA TO 50%
*TRUMP SETS JAN. 1, 2027 FOR 50% CANADA TARIFF HIKE
*TRUMP: CANADA WILL BE TREATED LIKE A STATE NO LONGER
*TRUMP: WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US

[rohan anil @_arohan_]

Data is computation at rest. Training resurrects it in silicon and sets it back in motion.

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

The entire “negotiation” with Canada was always Kayfabe. The reason there is confusion and a lack of clear leadership around the talks was because they were always doomed to fail.

Bessent has one priority. China.

And he knew from the start exactly what I posted on here in February 2025. If you ask Canadians to give up trade with China they will say fuck you. And so you need to put them into a depression first.

A financial crisis so bad that even the most deranged liberal boomer with TDS feels pain.

And because carney had anointed himself as the king of the “middle powers” this is the lowest cost way to make a public demonstration to the europoors on the cost of not being onboard with decoupling.

This always had to happen. Not because there wasn’t a way to negotiate behind closed doors.

It’s because the European politicians would never be able to sell the notion of decoupling to their own populace without a concrete proofpoint that Trump means it when he taps his finger on the economic nuke button.

I know Bitcoin is running and I very publicly bailed on it at $80k but I continue believe the next levers to be pulled will be access to energy supply as well as access to dollar liquidity.

That is a scary world. Midterms are near. Idk how they plan to thread this needle.

But there is a plan. Vol goes up as does Bessents attempts to manipulate markets.

Good luck homies 🫡

[Nautilus Research @NautilusCap]

#midterm #seasonality SPX

[Daniel Perczek @exposurerisk]

The "U.S. Treasury" was buying/retiring government debt in the months immediately preceding the October 1929 stock-market crash.
The timing is striking: the $100 million September 16 purchase occurred only about six weeks before Black Monday/Black Tuesday, October 28–29, 1929.

[Finom Group @GroupFinom]

Ahhhhhh Shuckie Duckie!

S&P500 $SPX actual performance is perfectly tracking the Summer price path of the Cycle Composite since start of July.

Sometimes the scheduled fund flows rear their ugly head and force investors to recognize, its not seasonality, but a schedule!

$SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $DIA $VIX $NVDA $VOO

[Dyme @CryptoParadyme]

I said ~66k and below were the DCA window being entered. Some of you understood the assignment.

Do I think the bottom is in? Possible, but that would also mean cycles as we know them are changing.

I've yet to see the actual chart structure change, I want to see MSTR reclaim the 200 SMA.

I want to see what September brings, because it's often not good.

I made money today and I hope many of you did too.

A lot can happen between now and October 6th.

We continue observing.

[Ozzy @ozzy_livin]

it bottoms ... when Bitcoin AO 📍 says it bottoms.

[Ozzy @ozzy_livin]

There should be a name for this Bitcoin rally 🤔

[fejau @fejau_inc]

The dovish signals keep firing.

As mentioned above in the last roundup, the policy is clear as day on the following:

- marginal macro policy is moving towards the Treasury
- The government will ensure the AI buildout goes off without a hitch. Since new marginal buildout is being funded with debt, the long end must be kept in check through that.
- The change to the word changes in QRA a couple weeks ago was a clear signal that Bessent is happy to outdo Yellen in supporting the long end
- Because of this, I’m liking debasement trades again like gold and Bitcoin. Gold up 3% today. Think Bitcoin will do well too.

The game is rigged, the vol controllers are alive and well. Don’t fight it :)

[Ozzy @ozzy_livin]

Treasury Secretary 🇺🇸 Scott Bessent has just doubled the size of its buybacks. The maximum per operation increased from 2 billion dollars to "at least" 4 billion

✍️ Sep 9th - Nov 4th refunding quarter

Remember August 5th 2024 🫢 ... dip incoming?

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

My latest Chart In Focus article, "High Yield Bonds Continue To Warn of Trouble", is posted at my Home page. You can also sign up there to have them delivered to your inbox (with no spam ever, we don't share our list).

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Dude you know those pesky securitization rules that went in place after the 2008 financial meltdown?

Well, the SEC just exempted datacenter debt from key securitization rules

The SEC said a major subset of data-center securitizations don’t need to have disclosures and investor protections that similar deals require. That includes risk retention, a requirement that companies issuing asset-backed securities retain some of the debt to better align their interests with investors. (Bloomberg)